ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ravyrn
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Re:

#2221 Postby ravyrn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:06 pm

Time_Zone wrote:What time will recon be in there investigating Arthur? estimates?


Check the recon thread. There are two planes on Arthur atm.
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#2222 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:06 pm

What are the chances this is the first U.S. major hurricane landfall since 2005 (almost 9 years ago) with Hurricane Wilma?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2223 Postby windnrain » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:06 pm

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-48

Most recent radar looks pretty much due north.
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#2224 Postby windnrain » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:07 pm

http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack

Ustream of someone on the outer banks.
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Re:

#2225 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:What are the chances this is the first U.S. major hurricane landfall since 2005 (almost 9 years ago) with Hurricane Wilma?


Pretty damn slim imo.

It's still unable to wrap the deep convection all the way around. It'll never make major status unless that changes...and it literally has to change now since it's seriously running out of time. Strong cat 1/very weak cat 2 as it skims the coast imo.
Last edited by Time_Zone on Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2226 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:09 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
ravyrn wrote: Do you think they'll extend the hurricane warning southward to include Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender counties? Kinda late I suppose but I wonder if they will.


IS Duplin also under a watch or warning?


They don't seem to have anything other than a Hazardous Weather Outlook.


With Duplin County being an inland county, they did not have any watches or warnings issued. Those only went out to the coastal counties.IS Duplin also under a watch or warning?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2227 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:10 pm

windnrain wrote:http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LTX-N0Q-1-48

Most recent radar looks pretty much due north.



NNE per recon's fixes.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2228 Postby toto » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:10 pm

never mind... I found the answer :)
Last edited by toto on Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2229 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:11 pm

recon coming in se to nw pas in the next 30 min...
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#2230 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:13 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390...

VALID 032009Z - 032215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 390 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL SKIRT CAPE FEAR NC SOON.
ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT CHANCES WILL LIKELY PEAK ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR AREA NORTH TO WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AND THEN INCREASE NORTH TO CAPE LOOKOUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS AND
BEYOND.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR IS WELL DEPICTED FROM A
NUMBER OF RADAR SITES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF ARTHUR WILL SOON MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF CAPE FEAR AND KLTX VWP DATA WAS OBSERVING A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WITH 50KT OF EASTERLY FLOW WITHIN 1KM OF THE SURFACE.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO ORBIT THE CENTER OF
ARTHUR WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE CIRCULATION. EXPECT ISOLATED
TORNADO/WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL TO PEAK EAST OF ILM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO WHILE THIS POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES NORTHEASTWARD TO MHX AS
STRONGER CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE DISCRETE STRONGER CORES WITHIN
THE FEEDER BANDS HAVE EXHIBITED ONLY WEAK ROTATION SO FAR.
HOWEVER...ANY PERSISTENT DISCRETE ELEMENTS TRACKING NWWD ACROSS THE
COASTLINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
AND/OR TORNADOES.

..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2014


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 36067656 36247543 35787517 35067526 34887552 34387632
34317657 34287696 34207737 33907779 33897816 33977862
34727817 35167759 35537719 35807689 36067656
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2231 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:13 pm

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DUPLIN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WALLACE...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
CHINQUAPIN...OR 10 MILES EAST OF WALLACE...MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GREENEVERS...TEACHEY...ROSE HILL AND MAGNOLIA
Image

BTW tornado watch in effect for coastal NC with 40% EF2+ probability
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#2232 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 pm

Wow, I was just checking SSTs along Florida's central and northern Atlantic coast, Arthur did not cooled them down at all, temps are still in the low to mid 80s.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2233 Postby Batt2fd » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 pm

[youtube]http://youtu.be/xdxsGA3OJPM[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2234 Postby hurricanedude » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:18 pm

So will the 5pm be 90....95....100...or 105 winds? I go with 100
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#2235 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:19 pm

both recon plane on next set are going to do a pass... af from SE to NW


Noaa from SW to NE
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2236 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:19 pm

hurricanedude wrote:So will the 5pm be 90....95....100...or 105 winds? I go with 100



recon going to determine that..
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2237 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:19 pm

hurricanedude wrote:So will the 5pm be 90....95....100...or 105 winds? I go with 100


I'd guess 90 still and probably 100-105 by 8 if the plane is still out there at the time.
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#2238 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:22 pm

I'd go 85 kt (100 mph) personally based on the dropsonde and SFMR readings.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2239 Postby ravyrn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:23 pm

Hammy wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:So will the 5pm be 90....95....100...or 105 winds? I go with 100


I'd guess 90 still and probably 100-105 by 8 if the plane is still out there at the time.


I think the next pass through the center will find low-90 knots surface winds in the eyewall. Arthur began deepening right as they made their last pass. Arthur does still have some issues with dry air but that won't keep it from strengthening at this point, only prevent it from rapidly intensifying.

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#2240 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:23 pm

I'll guess 100 mph... but it has the looks of something stronger.
Last edited by SeGaBob on Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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