ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

Here is a good map with the forecast track and buoys that will likely be impacted (including some that, if the track holds, will be darn near run over!)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/?lat=35.721551 ... =&ls=false

Yep I live in Atlantic in Carteret County. Looks like it is gonna come right over us.

I grew up in Havenot, err, I mean Havelock...and have friends near Morehead City. Stay safe!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I got all the ..someone said reported a gust to 85mph or something bur thr buoy itself is nor reporting.. oh well

It may be a private weather station set up by the new owner. TWC was report the same thing

[hurricanedude]

Aric sounds like ur giving up on him

[MGC]

All of you in the path of Arthur take care......MGC

[Bocadude85]

Im watching WECT news online and they showed video of a guy out on frying pan shoals light, they then said a gust of 82mph was reported there.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric sounds like ur giving up on him

just mentioning thats the only way its going to deepen...

[Aric Dunn]

Im watching WECT news online and they showed video of a guy out on frying pan shoals light, they then said a gust of 82mph was reported there.

ooh that would be fun out there

[hurricanedude]

But the dry air was suppose to abate by now, had there been no dry air we would have a monster on our hands

[RL3AO]

I think the slight chance it had to reach 100kt is just about gone. Should be looking at a 80 to 90kt storm at landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

But the dry air was suppose to abate by now, had there been no dry air we would have a monster on our hands

its not a lot only a little bubble should be gone soon.. you can see it get pulled off the mainland

[Aric Dunn]

recon finding hurricane force winds no more than 10 to 20 mile off southport

[windnrain]

Southport is only under a hurricane watch.

This is ridiculous... Its like saying "oh, everythings fine, the town was under a tornado watch" without issuing a warning.

[Aric Dunn]

recon again found 974 mb
and 82 kt in the south quad..

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Southport is only under a hurricane watch.

This is ridiculous... Its like saying "oh, everythings fine, the town was under a tornado watch" without issuing a warning.

Trust me, we knew there was a storm coming today. They canceled today's NC 4th of July Festival activities. LOL

[tallywx]

Southport is only under a hurricane watch.

This is ridiculous... Its like saying "oh, everythings fine, the town was under a tornado watch" without issuing a warning.

I'm not sure I've seen something like this in my lifetime of following storms (which is to say, since the 1988 hurricane season). The closest thing has been short-fused hurricane warnings for TS that unexpectedly strengthened into hurricanes, or TS that were declared hurricanes in post-season analysis.

But to have an established 90-mph cane with hurricane force winds 10-20 miles offshore of somewhere not covered by a hurricane warning? Literally "unprecedented."

[TheAustinMan]

Radar loop from Wilmington since about daybreak.

[Aric Dunn]

actually 83kt fl and 68kt sfmr

212300 3307N 07750W 7513 02365 9854 +145 +135 269082 083 068 004 00

[WxGuy1]

But the dry air was suppose to abate by now, had there been no dry air we would have a monster on our hands

its not a lot only a little bubble should be gone soon.. you can see it get pulled off the mainland

That image masks out the CONUS PW. There is a slug of relatively dry air (25-30 mm PW instead of 50-60 mm PW) not very far to the northwest of Arthur: see http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/view ... Type=image


You can also see it by combining the water vapor data (which primarily show mid- and upper-tropospheric moisture):


With the surface observations (dewpoints in the 50s isn't 'tropical', that's for sure! )

[Aric Dunn]

But the dry air was suppose to abate by now, had there been no dry air we would have a monster on our hands

its not a lot only a little bubble should be gone soon.. you can see it get pulled off the mainland

That image masks out the CONUS PW. There is a slug of relatively dry air (25-30 mm PW instead of 50-60 mm PW) not very far to the northwest of Arthur: see http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/view ... Type=image


You can also see it by combining the water vapor data (which primarily show mid- and upper-tropospheric moisture):


With the surface observations (dewpoints in the 50s isn't 'tropical', that's for sure! )

thank you

well if it can keep parallel to that it will have a better chance of not ingesting to much of it..

[ozonepete]

Don't forget the land interaction. While that land down there is coastal plain and a lot of it marshland, it's still land. Frictional effects from the land always turn the winds inward toward the low pressure center so that on the western side the northerly winds turn more westerly and this causes eye-wall air to start rushing in towards the center. That's why we say that the eye "fills" over land. So there's probably some higher pressure air from around the eye moving into the center at times now on the landward side and that will not allow this to strengthen anymore. It would be much worse if the land were drier or more hilly, but there's still going to be effects.