ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
600 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
...6 PM POSITION UPDATE...
A WEATHER UNDERGROUND STATION IN KURE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA HAS
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED OF 48 MPH...77 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST
OF 57 MPH...92 KM/HR.
SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
600 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
...6 PM POSITION UPDATE...
A WEATHER UNDERGROUND STATION IN KURE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA HAS
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED OF 48 MPH...77 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST
OF 57 MPH...92 KM/HR.
SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
Man, it looks like North Florida and South Georgia is getting it worse than I am right now.
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Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
Not to minimize a cat 1, but I'm SO GLAD that this didn't do what I thought it would do initially and undergo RI and ramp up to a Cat 3. The potential was there though..... I'm sure there could still be be slight fluctuations in strength, either up or down prior to it moving away from the coast...
disclaimer: This is only my opinion. Please consult NHC to see official forecast.
disclaimer: This is only my opinion. Please consult NHC to see official forecast.
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anyone have a clue why recon is flying in circles so far south of the system?? i count 4 complete loops so far ?
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:anyone have a clue why recon is flying in circles so far south of the system?? i count 4 complete loops so far ?
Don't know.

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
Pack11 wrote:I usually just lurk and read, but wanted to thank you guys for all the information and education. I'm on Hatteras Island and my daughter is in Wilmington so I have obviously been checking this thread all day.
Glad you like us!

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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I looked at that radar loop earlier and was wanting to agree at first on the possible northeastward turn, though can't help but wonder if it is just a wobble.
However, I just took a look at it again in the last couple minutes and there is something else I am noticing. A little over midway through the loop, it almost looks there was a near due east wobble made, before Arthur starting heading back towards the north-northeast, which has been the consistent track for the last several hours.
What I think that means is a turn to the northeast overall is commencing, but is taking some time. I want to see this really become a trend over the next couple hours before we say it is for sure moving in that direction. Until then, I still say it is overall moving north-northeast.
I also still believe this is coming ashore, and looking at intensity, this storm is a fighter. These types of storms always have a knack of getting it together even when conditions aren't the most ideal. I think it nudges into Category 2 territory sometime a little later, maybe just before landfall, likely near Beaufort/Morehead City.
-Andrew92
I looked at that radar loop earlier and was wanting to agree at first on the possible northeastward turn, though can't help but wonder if it is just a wobble.
However, I just took a look at it again in the last couple minutes and there is something else I am noticing. A little over midway through the loop, it almost looks there was a near due east wobble made, before Arthur starting heading back towards the north-northeast, which has been the consistent track for the last several hours.
What I think that means is a turn to the northeast overall is commencing, but is taking some time. I want to see this really become a trend over the next couple hours before we say it is for sure moving in that direction. Until then, I still say it is overall moving north-northeast.
I also still believe this is coming ashore, and looking at intensity, this storm is a fighter. These types of storms always have a knack of getting it together even when conditions aren't the most ideal. I think it nudges into Category 2 territory sometime a little later, maybe just before landfall, likely near Beaufort/Morehead City.
-Andrew92
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane #Arthur update issued. 6 pm position update, , eye of #Arthur passing southeast of cape fear. http://go.usa.gov/W3H
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:anyone have a clue why recon is flying in circles so far south of the system?? i count 4 complete loops so far ?
There are some missing SFMR data so it's possible they could be trying to work out the issue before flying back in.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:anyone have a clue why recon is flying in circles so far south of the system?? i count 4 complete loops so far ?

I was wondering the same thing and was just about to post inquiring. They've been having issues getting SFMR readings, maybe it is related to that?
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yeah that was only a illusion.. been tracking the center and now again on radar as convection wraps back around looks to be moving back NNE again..
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maybe they are having technical issues they just did 2 more loops
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Re:
KBBOCA wrote:Are there meso-vortices in the eye? On the Wilmington radar there looks to be kind of a pinwheel effect?
Anyone have a close-up they can post (I'm on a very slow internet connection)


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buoy 41037 going to take a direct hit going to get good ob from it in the next hour
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