ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2341 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:00 pm

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
600 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...6 PM POSITION UPDATE...

A WEATHER UNDERGROUND STATION IN KURE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA HAS
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED OF 48 MPH...77 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST
OF 57 MPH...92 KM/HR.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2342 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:00 pm



Man, it looks like North Florida and South Georgia is getting it worse than I am right now.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2343 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:01 pm

Not to minimize a cat 1, but I'm SO GLAD that this didn't do what I thought it would do initially and undergo RI and ramp up to a Cat 3. The potential was there though..... I'm sure there could still be be slight fluctuations in strength, either up or down prior to it moving away from the coast...




disclaimer: This is only my opinion. Please consult NHC to see official forecast.
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#2344 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:01 pm

anyone have a clue why recon is flying in circles so far south of the system?? i count 4 complete loops so far ?
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Re:

#2345 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:anyone have a clue why recon is flying in circles so far south of the system?? i count 4 complete loops so far ?


Don't know.

Image
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2346 Postby ozonepete » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:04 pm

Pack11 wrote:I usually just lurk and read, but wanted to thank you guys for all the information and education. I'm on Hatteras Island and my daughter is in Wilmington so I have obviously been checking this thread all day.


Glad you like us! :wink:
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#2347 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:04 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I looked at that radar loop earlier and was wanting to agree at first on the possible northeastward turn, though can't help but wonder if it is just a wobble.

However, I just took a look at it again in the last couple minutes and there is something else I am noticing. A little over midway through the loop, it almost looks there was a near due east wobble made, before Arthur starting heading back towards the north-northeast, which has been the consistent track for the last several hours.

What I think that means is a turn to the northeast overall is commencing, but is taking some time. I want to see this really become a trend over the next couple hours before we say it is for sure moving in that direction. Until then, I still say it is overall moving north-northeast.

I also still believe this is coming ashore, and looking at intensity, this storm is a fighter. These types of storms always have a knack of getting it together even when conditions aren't the most ideal. I think it nudges into Category 2 territory sometime a little later, maybe just before landfall, likely near Beaufort/Morehead City.

-Andrew92
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2348 Postby torrea40 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:05 pm

Hurricane #Arthur update issued. 6 pm position update, , eye of #Arthur passing southeast of cape fear. http://go.usa.gov/W3H
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Re:

#2349 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:anyone have a clue why recon is flying in circles so far south of the system?? i count 4 complete loops so far ?


There are some missing SFMR data so it's possible they could be trying to work out the issue before flying back in.
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#2350 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:07 pm

Are there meso-vortices in the eye? On the Wilmington radar there looks to be kind of a pinwheel effect?

Anyone have a close-up they can post (I'm on a very slow internet connection)
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Re:

#2351 Postby ravyrn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:anyone have a clue why recon is flying in circles so far south of the system?? i count 4 complete loops so far ?


Image

I was wondering the same thing and was just about to post inquiring. They've been having issues getting SFMR readings, maybe it is related to that?
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#2352 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:09 pm

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2353 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:11 pm

From ISS

Image
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#2354 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:12 pm

yeah that was only a illusion.. been tracking the center and now again on radar as convection wraps back around looks to be moving back NNE again..
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#2355 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:15 pm

maybe they are having technical issues they just did 2 more loops
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Re:

#2356 Postby ravyrn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:maybe they are having technical issues they just did 2 more loops


Image

Yeah they seem to be. They're all over the place at the moment.
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#2357 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:16 pm

SO COOL to have the pix, video & data from Frying Pan Tower - especially as it appears landfall will be in the dark. Very awesome!
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2358 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:17 pm

supercane4867 wrote:From ISS

Image



WOW WOW WOW
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Re:

#2359 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:18 pm

KBBOCA wrote:Are there meso-vortices in the eye? On the Wilmington radar there looks to be kind of a pinwheel effect?

Anyone have a close-up they can post (I'm on a very slow internet connection)

Image
Image
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#2360 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:18 pm

buoy 41037 going to take a direct hit going to get good ob from it in the next hour
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