ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[seahawkjd]

Here's some video from Morehead City about 20 minutes ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsfFr4Y ... e=youtu.be

[AJC3]

So, I was just sitting outside, sipping on a cold one, and watching the rain and wind blow through the trees, and got to thinking about the whole lack of a hurricane warning and cat 2 thing. Does anyone think it possible that NHC did not raise the classification to cat 2 because they did not issue a warning for the Brunswick County, and New Hanover County beaches, or has the NHC just gotten that good this year on predictions?

They would never do something like that. Never. And nobody is better than them at this. For Arthur, so far, they are very, very good.

Moreover (and I mention this every year on here), it's important to remember that the NHC does NOT unilaterally issue TC watches or warnings for the US. They are coordinated and agreed upon between NHC and the local WFOs. This is done either during coordination calls, which take place one hour before the sechduled advisory, or NHC will actually call beforehand, or during the interim, to coordinate on watches or warnings.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Just updated on the NHC site...

001700 3353N 07650W 6962 03008 9919 +069 -065 216092 094 075 026 00

94kts flight level in the northeast quad and the lowest pressure was 975.7 with 23kt winds...

[Alyono]

looks like it remains an 80 KT storm based upon the aircraft data

[NDG]

I believe this is some of the strongest flight level winds they have found all day long.

001530 3355N 07656W 6965 02958 9840 +097 -066 215074 077 077 010 00
001600 3355N 07654W 6979 02957 9883 +075 -113 214083 085 076 013 03
001630 3354N 07652W 6957 02999 9901 +071 -077 215090 092 079 038 03
001700 3353N 07650W 6962 03008 9919 +069 -065 216092 094 075 026 00
001730 3352N 07648W 6976 03001 9940 +064 -101 216089 093 075 019 00
001800 3351N 07647W 6980 03008 9956 +062 -068 213088 092 071 027 00

[Aric Dunn]

I believe this is some of the strongest flight level winds they have found all day long.

001530 3355N 07656W 6965 02958 9840 +097 -066 215074 077 077 010 00
001600 3355N 07654W 6979 02957 9883 +075 -113 214083 085 076 013 03
001630 3354N 07652W 6957 02999 9901 +071 -077 215090 092 079 038 03
001700 3353N 07650W 6962 03008 9919 +069 -065 216092 094 075 026 00
001730 3352N 07648W 6976 03001 9940 +064 -101 216089 093 075 019 00
001800 3351N 07647W 6980 03008 9956 +062 -068 213088 092 071 027 00

it is.. doing a blend of the data going to 95 mph is possible.. though the east and se likely to have the higher winds

[NDG]

Wow, 22 foot waves reported by this bouy 40 minutes ago, I am sure they are higher now that it is directly on the eyewall.

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 52.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 62.2 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 22.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): S ( 182 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.28 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.45 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 56.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 60.2 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036

[torrea40]

976mb pressure and 90-95 kt flight-level winds found by new recon plane on first pass through #Arthur

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, 22 foot waves reported by this bouy 40 minutes ago, I am sure they are higher now that it is directly on the eyewall.

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 52.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 62.2 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 22.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): S ( 182 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.28 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.45 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 56.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 60.2 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036

I think all buoys should have a rapid report function build in or even live..

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 040035
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 04/00:08:10Z
B. 34 deg 03 min N
077 deg 17 min W
C. 700 mb 2884 m
D. 65 kt
E. 213 deg 21 nm
F. 295 deg 72 kt
G. 209 deg 17 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 11 C / 3050 m
J. 13 C / 3053 m
K. -4 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. E33/24/16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1401A ARTHUR OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 94 KT 110 / 24 NM 00:17:10Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 150/08
;

[TheStormExpert]

000
URNT12 KNHC 040035
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 04/00:08:10Z
B. 34 deg 03 min N
077 deg 17 min W
C. 700 mb 2884 m
D. 65 kt
E. 213 deg 21 nm
F. 295 deg 72 kt
G. 209 deg 17 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 11 C / 3050 m
J. 13 C / 3053 m
K. -4 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. E33/24/16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1401A ARTHUR OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 94 KT 110 / 24 NM 00:17:10Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 150/08
;

Still strengthening or no?

[Jevo]

Radar is starting to look better each update.. Dry air removed from the center and rainshield building back around the circulation

[supercane4867]

Eyewall drop

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) 160° (from the SSE) 80 knots (92 mph)
981mb 160° (from the SSE) 84 knots (97 mph)
974mb 165° (from the SSE) 83 knots (96 mph)
967mb 165° (from the SSE) 93 knots (107 mph)
959mb 180° (from the S) 100 knots (115 mph)
955mb 180° (from the S) 98 knots (113 mph)
950mb 175° (from the S) 105 knots (121 mph)
942mb 175° (from the S) 105 knots (121 mph)
934mb 185° (from the S) 115 knots (132 mph)
927mb 180° (from the S) 105 knots (121 mph)
918mb 185° (from the S) 106 knots (122 mph)
908mb 190° (from the S) 95 knots (109 mph)
891mb 200° (from the SSW) 101 knots (116 mph)
850mb 205° (from the SSW) 97 knots (112 mph)
697mb 215° (from the SW) 89 knots (102 mph)

[locke]

Tide readings at Beaufort must be a little worrying. Winds are starting to pickup there too.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/

Already reading 2 ft above predicted and landfall coinciding with high tides. Atlantic Beach, Morehead and Beaufort are going to cop a hammering.

Also wondering if the radar is showing signs of an eyewall replacement.

Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are not the official forecast.
For the official information, refer to the NHC and NWS.

[Alyono]

making a north wobble. This is coming inland soon

[Aric Dunn]

buoy offshore gusting 81

[Aric Dunn]

making a north wobble. This is coming inland soon

yeah took a wobble to the left.. going to come in at beaufort.

or a tab left of there

[hurricanekid416]

Will this be upgraded before landfall

[Jevo]

making a north wobble. This is coming inland soon

Going to make my untrained prediction based on the last four hours of extrapolated movement.. Looks like initial landfall is Moorehead City

[ozonepete]

making a north wobble. This is coming inland soon

yeah took a wobble to the left.. going to come in at beaufort.

or a tad left of there

That's what I see. If you remove the wobbles from the motion.