ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#2461 Postby **ravyrn** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:14 pm

ozonepete wrote:Lol get out the crow.

What do you think caused them to upgrade it to 100mph? Recon showed 79 knots at the highest on SFMR. I'm guessing maybe they missed a stronger part of the eyewall?

hurricanekid416 · #2462 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:15 pm

Alyono wrote:may be time to consider a Hurricane Watch for SE MA

If it goes at this direction it will slam in to Massachusetts

#2463 Postby **NDG** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:16 pm

NDG wrote:Bouy 41036 now reporting 29 foot waves and a pressure of 978mb, pretty much in the eye now.

Conditions at 41036 as of
(8:50 pm EDT on 07/03/2014)
0050 GMT on 07/04/2014:

Unit of Measure: English Metric

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 28.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 9.1 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 166 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.76 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.3 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 79.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 84.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 36.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 38.9 kts

#2464 Postby **NDG** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:16 pm

Conditions at 41036 as of
(8:50 pm EDT on 07/03/2014)
0050 GMT on 07/04/2014:

Unit of Measure: English Metric

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 28.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 9.1 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 166 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.76 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.3 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 79.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 84.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 36.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 38.9 kts

Aric Dunn · #2465 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:16 pm

ravyrn wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Lol get out the crow.

What do you think caused them to upgrade it to 100mph? Recon showed 79 knots at the highest on SFMR. I'm guessing maybe they missed a stronger part of the eyewall?

no sfmr is no where near perfect.. they take blend typically of the data to even out the error.

torrea40 · #2466 Postby **torrea40** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:16 pm

Someone at TWC change 100 mph from Cat 1 to 2.

Aric Dunn · #2467 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:17 pm

cman station now has sustained of 52 at cape lookout

#2468 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:18 pm

torrea40 wrote:Someone at TWC change 100 mph from Cat 1 to 2.

They changed it because of this.

...ARTHUR BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...165 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

Aric Dunn · #2469 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:18 pm

a little more of left wobble..

#2470 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:21 pm

ravyrn wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Lol get out the crow.

What do you think caused them to upgrade it to 100mph? Recon showed 79 knots at the highest on SFMR. I'm guessing maybe they missed a stronger part of the eyewall?

I agree with Aric on this: The numbers could have gone either way and they use a blend of all the data so this was a tough call. I thought they wouldn't because they tend to be conservative but I'm hopeful they will explain it in the 11PM Discussion. If they don't then we'll have to wait until the end of year analysis. :roll:

#2471 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:
torrea40 wrote:Someone at TWC change 100 mph from Cat 1 to 2.

They changed it because of this.

...ARTHUR BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...165 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

No the problem is they haven't changed it

Aric Dunn · #2472 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:24 pm

every new frame from radar is wobbling more to the left.. looks to be taking aim at the radar...lol

#2473 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:every new frame from radar is wobbling more to the left.. looks to be taking aim at the radar...lol

Lol yeah it does. My money is on Beaufort if you ignore the wobbles.

Aric Dunn · #2474 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:28 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:every new frame from radar is wobbling more to the left.. looks to be taking aim at the radar...lol

Lol yeah it does. My money is on Beaufort if you ignore the wobbles.

but its a wobble war right now... lol

HurrMark · #2475 Postby **HurrMark** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:28 pm

Seems very similar to Bonnie (1998) in terms of landfall point and direction...perhaps a touch less intense.

torrea40 · #2476 Postby **torrea40** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:31 pm

9:30pm ET Power outage update: Duke Energy is reporting 10,935 customer without power in #NC, 2,139 customers without power in #SC

#2477 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:32 pm

Looks like it is about to weaken from a big slug of dry air wrapping in from the west. You can see the western side of the eye-wall is weakening on radar. But also looks like the actual effects of the weakening (lower winds) won't start happening until just after it gets to Beaufort.

#2478 Postby **weatherSnoop** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:35 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:every new frame from radar is wobbling more to the left.. looks to be taking aim at the radar...lol

Looks like it was going to avoid Wilmington at all cost, then resume his comfortable course

#2479 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:37 pm

will be MUCH worse than Bonnie for the Outer Banks. Bonnie weakened a lot over land before reaching the Outer Banks

#2480 Postby **seahawkjd** » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:every new frame from radar is wobbling more to the left.. looks to be taking aim at the radar...lol

Lol yeah it does. My money is on Beaufort if you ignore the wobbles.

but its a wobble war right now... lol

If I put my money on somewhere else, will it make a difference? lol

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