ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[seahawkjd]

every new frame from radar is wobbling more to the left.. looks to be taking aim at the radar...lol

Lol yeah it does. My money is on Beaufort if you ignore the wobbles.

but its a wobble war right now... lol

If I put my money on somewhere else, will it make a difference? lol

[znel52]

I think you guys are wobble watching too much lol. Appears to be basically going NE to me. Should landfall around the Beaufort, Morehead City area.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[NDG]

9:30pm ET Power outage update: Duke Energy is reporting 10,935 customer without power in #NC, 2,139 customers without power in #SC

I was wondering why is has quiet down some in here

[seahawkjd]

9:30pm ET Power outage update: Duke Energy is reporting 10,935 customer without power in #NC, 2,139 customers without power in #SC

I was wondering why is has quiet down some in here

Its about to go out here. Hanging on at the moment with my battery backup.

[NDG]

Barely hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant, per latest recon making another pass.

[HurriGuy]

Recon found what looks like close to a 95 mph surface wind? Probably closer to 90.

[ravyrn]

Its about to go out here. Hanging on at the moment with my battery backup.

Take care and be safe! Hopefully you guys won't be without power for too many hours/days. I bunkered down in Lake Charles for Ike and remember our power going out. It was a bummer, because I was sitting on my porch, watching the top of a tree blow in the wind, and seeing lights on in a nearby neighborhood. Hope you got some good batteries/games/books to keep you occupied! Keep us posted!

[ravyrn]

Recon found what looks like close to a 95 mph surface wind? Probably closer to 90.

Recon found 91/92mph surface winds in their last pass in the SW eyewall --- 79 knots on SFMR. However, as has been elated by promets and seasoned contributors, the SFMR isn't entirely accurate and the NHC uses a blend of data to determine wind speed.

[NDG]

The Buoy reported a pressure of 977mb with 27 mph winds, makes me believe Arthur's pressure has fallen some more.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it is about to weaken from a big slug of dry air wrapping in from the west. You can see the western side of the eye-wall is weakening on radar. But also looks like the actual effects of the weakening (lower winds) won't start happening until just after it gets to Beaufort.

hard to say earlier it eroded completely away then 30 min came back and was stronger lol

[NDG]

Recon found what looks like close to a 95 mph surface wind? Probably closer to 90.

Ooops, missed that one line, lol.

013500 3435N 07633W 6965 03056 9961 +086 -128 154074 076 081 002 00

[NDG]

Looks like it is about to weaken from a big slug of dry air wrapping in from the west. You can see the western side of the eye-wall is weakening on radar. But also looks like the actual effects of the weakening (lower winds) won't start happening until just after it gets to Beaufort.

hard to say earlier it eroded completely away then 30 min came back and was stronger lol

At some point over the next few hours after it passes the NC coast that as it starts interacting with the trough more it may get a little stronger before becoming extratropical, IMO.

[ravyrn]

Looks like it is about to weaken from a big slug of dry air wrapping in from the west. You can see the western side of the eye-wall is weakening on radar. But also looks like the actual effects of the weakening (lower winds) won't start happening until just after it gets to Beaufort.

hard to say earlier it eroded completely away then 30 min came back and was stronger lol

I think that's the biggest pocket of dry air Arthur has swallowed all day.

[NDG]

Well, pressure has not fallen since the last pass.

014430 3414N 07704W 6967 02931 9758 +129 +116 300034 041 043 001 00

[HurriGuy]

Pressures holding steady. 80 to 90 mph imbedded in eye wall.

[ravyrn]

[seahawkjd]

Here's more video of Arthur.... at least until the power went out....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55_V6Lx ... e=youtu.be

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...10 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA SOON...

NOAA BUOY 41036 RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 67
MPH...108 KM /H...WITH A GUST TO 87 MPH...140 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

[HurriGuy]

Approx 35 miles away from landfall. Not much longer. Outer banks looking like they will be hit extremely hard with one persistent band of rain.

[ravyrn]

Here's more video of Arthur.... at least until the power went out....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55_V6Lx ... e=youtu.be

Thanks for sharing, not much of a video due to the power outage and night time! Why do all the big storms like to make landfall during the night time? My two big experiences (Rita, Ike) occurred at night also. I guess the hurricanes don't want us to get good footage illustrating how destructive and dangerous they are!

Stay safe and take care, seahawkjd!