ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

National Hurricane Center Tweet
@NHC_Atlantic: Arthur is the earliest hurricane to hit North Carolina in a season since records began in 1851. The previous record was July 11, 1901.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

So, I know there is a lot going on right now with the storm coming into the Outer banks, but I wanted to apologize. After the storm passed my location, I went and took a long overdue nap (i.e. drunkenly passed out), and when i woke, I knew I had made a stupid comment earlier. I know that there is no conspiracy in the NHC to withhold forecasts or warnings, or anything else. I shamed myself, and I apologize to the community.

Now back to the storm.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm wondering, if the eastern eyewall remainds over water and with the center not going over too much land, could this end up continuing to strengthen slowly while over the sound? It almost seems to be getting better organized after landfall.

I remember TS Fay back in 2008 strengthened over Lake Okeechobee from 65 to 70mph while crossing Florida! Any things possible IMO.

[Hammy]

In addition to the NC record, and earliest Cat 2 since 2008, I believe this is also the strongest hurricane to hit the US East Coast since Jeanne in 2004.

[capepoint]

Seems like the back side is worse in Morehead City......

[72Packer]

I'm wondering, if the eastern eyewall remainds over water and with the center not going over too much land, could this end up continuing to strengthen slowly while over the sound?

It would appear that the eye will remain over water most of the time if it goes up the Pamilico Sound. The Pamlico is shallow with sandbars in the middle of the 70 mile wide body of water. Its also shallow, 15 - 18 feet deep when following channels. The water temps could easily be 80-85 degrees.

Also, these islands are not that high above the water, max elevations of 10 feet above sea level or less. Jockey's Ridge in Kill Devil Hills is highest land on these islands with 90 foot high sand dunes. The storm is likely to be out at sea by the time it is at the latitude of these higher land masses.

[Blown Away]

The SE quad hasn't seen land and it appears it will cross over Hatteras... I bet we see the highest winds over land at that location...

[MGC]

Yea, don't expect Arthur to weaken much if at all...not much friction generating terrain in front of its path.....MGC

[TheStormExpert]

In addition to the NC record, and earliest Cat 2 since 2008, I believe this is also the strongest hurricane to hit the US East Coast since Jeanne in 2004.

Interesting facts! I've noticed that these longer standing trends/streaks have become much more common over the past decade.

[TheStormExpert]

Yea, don't expect Arthur to weaken much if at all...not much friction generating terrain in front of its path.....MGC

Won't be crossing much land, and the elevation is very minimal as well. Good example or similarity would be a storm crossing Florida's Everglades.

[Andrew92]

In terms of wind, this is indeed the strongest since Jeanne. But in terms of pressure, this still doesn't hold a candle to Sandy, and also isn't as deep as Irene.

I'm not trying to disrespect Arthur when I say that, as the damage could still be tremendous along the Outer Banks. I'm just saying, although the windiest storm in ten years, not the lowest pressure. Good luck to all those enduring this storm, and those yet to face it.

-Andrew92

[torrea40]

Hurricane #Arthur at 85-knots already stronger than any storm of 2013 hurricane season.

[Blown Away]

Seems like the back side is worse in Morehead City......

Are you in Beaufort w/ power?

[Aric Dunn]

Seems like the back side is worse in Morehead City......

yeah ... you all never quite made it to right front quad... but back side going to be worse

[weathernerdguy]

I'm wondering, if the eastern eyewall remainds over water and with the center not going over too much land, could this end up continuing to strengthen slowly while over the sound? It almost seems to be getting better organized after landfall.

I remember TS Fay back in 2008 strengthened over Lake Okeechobee from 65 to 70mph while crossing Florida! Any things possible IMO.

It was from the swamp

[TheStormExpert]

In terms of wind, this is indeed the strongest since Jeanne. But in terms of pressure, this still doesn't hold a candle to Sandy, and also isn't as deep as Irene.

I'm not trying to disrespect Arthur when I say that, as the damage could still be tremendous along the Outer Banks. I'm just saying, although the windiest storm in ten years, not the lowest pressure. Good luck to all those enduring this storm, and those yet to face it.

-Andrew92

Just remember the last Cat.2 to hit the U.S. was Ike and we all know what happened with that. Strength does not always matter when it comes to hurricanes, they all can and will produce some sort of damage at least.

[torrea40]

In 1996, another storm called #Arthur (that time as a Tropical Storm) also made landfall in Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Weird????

[CrazyC83]

Last Cat 2 or stronger storm to hit the US north of Florida: Hurricane Isabel in 2003. A lot of history made tonight.

Be safe everyone in the path or dealing with it now! You are in my prayers...

[capepoint]

Seems like the back side is worse in Morehead City......

Are you in Beaufort w/ power?

no i am at work in Morehead City, on generator power. Progress Energy is reporting 16.000 customers offline at this time. There are still several areas with power.

[Bocadude85]

In addition to the NC record, and earliest Cat 2 since 2008, I believe this is also the strongest hurricane to hit the US East Coast since Jeanne in 2004.

Hurricane Wilma hit SE Florida as a 105mph hurricane in October 2005