12Z Models in Unanimous Agreement! Mid East Coast Hit...

#1 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 2:50 pm

Take a look at all of the models below. I didn't indicate the BAMM and BAMD, as those models aren't meant for subtropical latitudes since they are not very "dynamical" in their calculations. Now I ask you, have you EVER seen such universal agreement in every single model? And the models have been steady with this solution for the past 24hours. Even the GFDL has come around to the mid Atlantic coast solution. Even the recent satellite imagery (I'll post an image below) indicaets a plume of cirrus extending NNW now - a sure sign of changing upper-level flow in advance of Isabel. The clues are all there, folks.

As for the NHC still saying "it's way too early to even speculate on a possible landfall area..." I would ask them why the NHC is indicating the center of Isabel just off the NC coast at 120 hours if it is too early to speculate? Isn't that quite a bit MORE than speculating? If the NHC can't even speculate, then they can't put out a 120-hr track at this point. Come on, NHC, just say it! The mid Atlantic coast is at high risk for a landfall here.

Now the high altitude flights around Isabel this weekend will certainly add to the initialization of the models in the next few days, but I think the models already have a good handle on what's happening out there. Those of you in Florida, a landfall there would appear to be very unlikely now. Not 100% impossible, but very unlikely. Keep watching the weather and remain calm. Those of you around NC to NJ better stock up on supplies before the rush.

12Z NOGAPS:
http://152.80.49.210/products/WXMAP/NGP ... .namer.gif

12Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138m.gif

12Z UKMET:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/u ... /slp24.png

12Z GFDL:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/g ... /slp21.png

12z Canadian (only goes out 72 hours but same movement as 00Z below):
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/c ... /slp12.png

00Z Canadian:
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 136_50.gif

12Z Japan Model:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/j ... 2/slp6.png

12Z 12th ECMWF:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/isabelir.gif">

#2 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 2:53 pm

When I got to the office and checked the PSU site a little while ago, it did seem that every one of the models was laying this on the feet of Long Island or very close.

A couple of questions, though:

Can you tell what the intensity looks like?

Is it basically going to follow the gulf stream going north?

Thanks very, very much for your analyses, by the way.

#3 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 2:55 pm

BTW, I do see that your graphics label the low pressures but these don't appear to be the "real" pressure of the hurricane. They look to be the pressures at the resolution of the model. Correct?

ameriwx2003 · #4 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 2:57 pm

wxman57.. great discussion.. question.. that Upper low milling around the SE, might that cause a more N/NW or even a North turn and it threatens NEW England if the ULL in the SE stays in place or is the thinking that the trof in the plains will kick the ULL in the SE out and Isabel will go between that trough and the High right into the midatlantic??

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:01 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:BTW, I do see that your graphics label the low pressures but these don't appear to be the "real" pressure of the hurricane. They look to be the pressures at the resolution of the model. Correct?

Right, Steve. You have to ignore the exact pressures indicated on most of the model graphics. They really aren't designed for such deep tropical systems. The GFDL is the exception. But even the GFDL is too high, note that it forecasts a 953mb pressure and 85kts near landfall:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/g ... /slp21.png

However, the GFDL NOW indicates Isabel has a pressure of 953MB and winds of 115kts - WAY too low! I would expect a very strong Cat 3 storm or even a Cat 4 at landfall. This is going to be a bad one if it hits as the 12Z models are projecting.

#6 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:Right, Steve. You have to ignore the exact pressures indicated on most of the model graphics. They really aren't designed for such deep tropical systems. The GFDL is the exception. But even the GFDL is too high, note that it forecasts a 953mb pressure and 85kts near landfall:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/g ... /slp21.png

However, the GFDL NOW indicates Isabel has a pressure of 953MB and winds of 115kts - WAY too low! I would expect a very strong Cat 3 storm or even a Cat 4 at landfall. This is going to be a bad one if it hits as the 12Z models are projecting.

And it seems to be heading to an area that just doesn't seem to really pay attention to TS's anyway (SNE) simply because they really haven't had to deal with many in the past.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:05 pm

57 about the speed at landfall how it may be fast or more slow I guess faster than what it is moving now right?

#8 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:18 pm

WXman...THe Euro was the Pied Piper...now everyone else is marching in behind. Amazing.

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:57 about the speed at landfall how it may be fast or more slow I guess faster than what it is moving now right?

I'd guess 12-15 mph at landfall. A bit faster than now.

Guest · #10 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:36 pm

Lets hope they lock on to this forecast wxman57 and hold it for several runs so the future path might be determined.

Thanks for the picture and graphics wxman - as always appreciated.

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:41 pm

Gee thanks Ticka.............lol..............This is the last place i want Izzy to go with all my family in that path!....................Anyways like i have said in other threads i am and have been for a few days with this trend of a Mid Atlantic beeing the biggest threat right now!........................And yes thank you wxman57 for the images and graphics!

Guest · #12 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:46 pm

KOW i'm sorry - get them in the car and head to your house in OH.....I wish I could make isabel a fish - but i don't think my -removed- is working - so like i said - if the models can lock on a path and forecast those in its path can be prepared - that's all you can do....

ColdFront77 · #13 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:10 pm

No wind flow around the high (ridge) in the Atlantic?

#14 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:32 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:No wind flow around the high (ridge) in the Atlantic?

I just called the office to get them to save me an 18Z satellite shot of the western Atlantic with 500mb streamlines and one with 250mb streamlines. Stand by...

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:37 pm

Well wxman57, that is an interesting map you've got there.

Does anyone remember a story I wrote about a Hurricane Debbie back in July?

This storm track is identical.

Man I have GOT to learn NOT to write these dumb stories anymore. Because the darn thing is coming true!!!! And it's not funny!!! This is REAL LIFE!!!

I have to find it, it's at WxChat somewhere........

We have EIGHT MODELS' Consensus on this thing.

I can't believe this. Your map shows that Izzy will:

1) Hit Virginia

2) Enter the Chesapeake Bay

3) And go up it, up to and past Woodbridge. That's where I am, BTW.

When I wrote that story, about a fictional hurricane, at WxChat back in July, July 24 to be exact, I never expected to see it become a possible reality.

There was another poster at WxChat, who answered my post when I posted that fictional story there, who replied with something like, "Don't wish for something you will later regret."

I still can't believe it. Izzy might actually hit Virginia. Some of you on this board think it will landfall as a Cat 4.

I have never been through anything like this before.

Am I correct in assuming, if we get the 'cane, that we would see about 24 inches of rain here? And how strong would the winds get here in Woodbridge (In eastern Prince William County) if the storm follows that track? And what would our chances of tornadoes be like?

And what should I do? Should I try to ride this out at home, or should I get the heck out of here?

HELP!!! I have NEVER been in a hurricane before!!!!

Please GOMers, give me some tips!!!!! Help!! I'm a Hurricane Newbie!!!

This can't be happening.............

-Jeb

#16 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:59 pm

Jeb, I wouldn't assume 24" of rain. As a general rule of thumb, divide the forward speed of a hurricane into 100 to get an estimated rainfall. So if the storm is moving at 12-15 mph at landfall, that equalls an estimated 7-9 inches for the central to right side at landfall. Considerably less rain will fall west of the center. I think there's a good chance the center may just miss you to the north and be heading NNW by then., but it's a long way from landfall yet

If it does pass near you (center within 50 miles), and is a Cat 3 or 4, then you might expect to be without power for a week or two. At the very least, maybe a few days if you're lucky. So plan on having a neighborhood BBQ if there's no post-storm power and your freezer is warming up.

I would go to a sporting goods store and pick up 3-4 collapsable 5-gallon plastic containers for storing water. They're great - they fold flat and store out of the way. With no electricity, you'll need a battery powered radio/tv to stay up with the pre and post-storm news.

Store any loose objects in your garage or indoors. Board up windows, DO NOT tape windows. Tape does nothing at all to protect windows, and you'll NEVER get that tape off afterwards.

The safest place (in your home) would be on a lower level in an interior hallway or bathroom - away from any windows. If you have a basement, then that is safer.

Here's a good place with lots of helpful info:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/pr ... plan.shtml

#17 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:05 pm

Here you go. These are valid at 18Z (1pm CDT) today:

Here's the 500mb. Note that Isabel is nearing he western periphery of the high:

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/isabel39.gif

And here's the 200 mb flow. Note the sharp trof over the Central Plains that will be replacing the southeast U.S. trof in a few days.

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/isabel40.gif

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:08 pm

Thank you very much, wxman57.

I am feeling this rather odd mixture of fear and excitement, but the fear is winning.

And disbelief. Disbelief that this is happening to the Mid Atlantic, of all places........

-Jeb

Stormsfury · #19 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:19 pm

It has been a long time since I've seen such an agreement with the series of model runs... If tonight's EURO is still locked on the Mid-Atlantic, I'm sold ...

SF

Rainband · #20 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:26 pm

Stormsfury wrote:It has been a long time since I've seen such an agreement with the series of model runs... If tonight's EURO is still locked on the Mid-Atlantic, I'm sold ...

SF

I will be sold when it's past florida.

12Z Models in Unanimous Agreement! Mid East Coast Hit...

12Z Models in Unanimous Agreement! Mid East Coast Hit...

Model Agreement

Model resolution

Re: Model resolution

Re: Model resolution

Speed

Coming

Rain

200mb (39,000ft) and 500mb (18,000ft) Streamlines

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