WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Has Typhoon Neoguri peaked? At least it has stopped the intensification process for the past 12 hours remaing at 120kts thanks to dry air helping to keep it from being another Haiyan.But make no mistake that Okinawa will get a good hit even if it doesn't intensify more because of the size and they will be on the dirty side.Hopefully,the dry air continues to limit intensification and weakens it before it moves thru the Okinawa latitude. Am I very optimistic?

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Good news.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 945.8mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.3 5.3

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

Current ADT numbers for Neoguri. As of 1030 UTC.

[stormcruisin]

Yeah its good to see its heading down hill with intensity.



Dont think those condition aloft are so favorable anymore. just my 2 cents.

[mrbagyo]

dry air plagued Neoguri

[stormcruisin]

Ships predicted it kinda wish i checked the JTWC file earlier.

ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/JTWC/C ... 6_08W.xfer

[cycloneye]

JTWC keeps insisting at 15:00z it will go up to 140kts as peak.

[dexterlabio]

Large tropical cyclones tend to suck more dry air from their surrounding. Lucky for Okinawa...and it looks like the models forecast track is shifting to the west, keeping the strongest winds from the island.



I don't know if DMAX will have an effect on strong TC's like this, but I'm gonna give it one last chance before I say it's already peaked.

[dexterlabio]

DT back up to 6.0. Not optimistic that it could go as high as 7.0 but it will be interesting to watch...

TPPN10 PGTW 061516

A. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 06/1432Z

C. 19.3N

D. 129.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG (+1.0
ADJUSTMENT FOR BLACK) YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. PT AGREES; MET WAS
6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0929Z 18.6N 130.8E SSMS
06/1043Z 18.7N 130.5E SSMS


LONG

[Dave C]

Looks like it's building a good inner core and fighting of dry air in the northern part of circulation. Greens really building on sat. presentation.

[Yellow Evan]

Still looks like a solid Cat 4 on the SSHS scale.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TPPN10 PGTW 061819

A. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 06/1732Z

C. 19.7N

D. 129.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET AGREES AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 130kts.

08W NEOGURI 140706 1800 19.7N 129.1E WPAC 130 926

[Frank2]

There was dry air to the north this morning but apparently that has diminshed - still as others said and the AF forecaster mentioned on TWC the track does take it about 50 miles west of Kadena AFB so it looks better for them...

Scary enough to be here in South Florida with that type of system heading in (Andrew, etc.) - being on a small island in that situation must be terrible...

Frank

[dexterlabio]

Looks like the eye of Neoguri will pass between Ishigakijima and Okinawa if models forecast track is correct...still, damaging winds can be expected in Naha. That eye is incredibly huge.

[cycloneye]

Is SuperTyphoon Neoguri as of 21:00z Warning

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.6N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.7N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 28.6N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 33.6N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.9N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 46.6N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 128.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z
IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
//

[hurricanes1234]

Forecasted peak once again raised to 145 knots.

[cycloneye]

Okinawa will be at the dirty side of a cat 5 moving close to the west.Prayers sent to them and to all who live on all the islands and in Japan.

[Dave C]

Miyakojima is even closer to projected path but should still be on west side.

[supercane4867]

TXPQ27 KNES 062112
TCSWNP

A. 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 06/2032Z

C. 19.9N

D. 128.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/SSMI

H. REMARKS...NW SIDE OF NEOGURI CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN VERY
DEEP COLD TOPS...POSSIBLY DUE TO FORWARD SPEED AND APPROACHING AFFECTS OF
WESTERLIES ALOFT...STILL LARGE 15C WMG EYE IS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EMBEDDED
IN BLACK .5 DEGREES EXACTLY FOR EYE NO. OF 5.5. SURROUNDING RING IS
LIMITED TO BLACK BUT STILL A 1.0 EYE ADJ FOR A DT OF 6.5. MET IS SLOW
TRENDING FOR 6.5. MET IS 6.5. FT IS 6.5 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/1704Z 19.8N 129.1E AMSU
06/1847Z 19.7N 128.8E SSMI


...GALLINA

[cycloneye]

It better turn soon or it slams into Taiwan. The question is when the forecast turn to the north finally occurs.