WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:01 pm

92W INVEST 140708 1800 7.2N 155.0E WPAC 15 1010

Will it be the next Typhoon to form in 2014?

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Re: WPAC: 09W-Tropical Depression

#2 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:52 pm

Looks to be already wrapping.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 4:57 pm

Here we go!

For an invest that just got designated, it is very organized. Bandings increasing especially in the southern quadrant and system is linked up to a TUTT cell to the northeast providing an even better outflow!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:00 pm

Guam NWS:

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTER TERM FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE WITH NO GRID
EDITS REQUIRED. STILL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TUTT SETTLES IN
OVERHEAD. AFTER FRIDAY...THE PLOT THICKENS. THE ECMWF AND GFS
BOTH SUGGEST THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI
WILL TRACK TOWARD THE MARIANAS AND MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
THE FORECAST ZONES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. NAVGEM DOES EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...SO WILL IGNORE THE NAVGEM FOR NOW.
FORECAST WIND GRIDS ALREADY FACTOR IN THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. STILL NOT SURE AT WHAT LATITUDE THE
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT SET
OF WIND GRIDS THAT CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS NORTH OF SAIPAN IN
PLACE FOR NOW. IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
INCREASE POPS...WINDS AND SEAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. AFTER EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS AGREE ON A MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN REMAINING IN
PLACE AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES.
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#5 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:03 pm

Looks more organized than when Neoguri was an invest.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:08 pm

Image

18Z running...Direct hit!
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#7 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:09 pm

GFS has this above typhoon intensity and a surface pressure of 933mb.
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Re:

#8 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:13 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS has this above typhoon intensity and a surface pressure of 933mb.


Pretty powerful but that is the 12Z update...18Z is rolling now so we will see if it still shows it :D
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:19 pm

Image

Continued westward track across Philippine sea. Pressure down to 965 mb...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:23 pm

Image

Down to 940mb and a slight northward jog...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#11 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:25 pm

euro6208 wrote:Image

Continued westward track across Philippine sea. Pressure down to 965 mb...

12z run had this at 990's mb at this point (144 which is the equivalent hours) while the latest shows this at 950's so expect this run to show a stronger typhoon... :eek:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:33 pm

Image

Wow. 918 mb...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:45 pm

Image

Following in Neoguri's footsteps? 916 mb... :eek:
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#14 Postby keitheyleen » Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:36 pm

oh no.. hope not

:( okinawa still recovering from neoguri
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Re:

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:43 pm

keitheyleen wrote:oh no.. hope not

:( okinawa still recovering from neoguri


Is very early to know first if it develops and if it does so what track it will take. Keep in touch with this thread as you will have all the information. After what Okinawa endured,definitly you don't want another one to affect the area.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:33 pm

00z Best Track.

92W INVEST 140709 0000 7.3N 154.4E WPAC 15 1010
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#17 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:43 pm

Lets hope this turns out to be a fish....As you see from the photos I posted for the other storms Okinawa has a lot of flooding right now
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Re: Re:

#18 Postby stormcruisin » Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
keitheyleen wrote:oh no.. hope not

:( okinawa still recovering from neoguri


Is very early to know first if it develops and if it does so what track it will take. Keep in touch with this thread as you will have all the information. After what Okinawa endured,definitly you don't want another one to affect the area.





Global has no interest in a TY atm.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#19 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:08 am

00z GFS has a southern Taiwan landfall.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#20 Postby ManilaTC » Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:16 am

The GFS 00z run is depicting this system to slam across Southern Taiwan or the Batanes Islands by Thursday next week.

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