Kingarabian wrote:How's the instability in its area?
Okay, but it's getting absorbed to the ITCZ. Alvin 13 all over again.
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Kingarabian wrote:How's the instability in its area?
Yellow Evan wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:I have a feeling it will be a very long time before we see a decent storm in this basin again. Maybe the models predicting weakening might not be that far fetched in my opinion.
This will likely fizzle out since it's within the deep tropics.
Why do you think it will be very long time before we see a decent storm though?
hurricanes1234 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:I have a feeling it will be a very long time before we see a decent storm in this basin again. Maybe the models predicting weakening might not be that far fetched in my opinion.
This will likely fizzle out since it's within the deep tropics.
Why do you think it will be very long time before we see a decent storm though?
I don't think there will be a decent storm at least in the next couple of weeks primarily because of conditions which are not that good. They are okay but there's dry air, shear, etc. here and there. That same dry air prevented Douglas from intensifying beyond 45 mph, and shear prevented Elida from strengthening at all after being classified.
As for Fausto, due to the above, I expect a similar setup. I wouldn't be surprised if it strengthens to 60 mph, but there is dry air near it, it is very close to the ITCZ, and there haven't really been any structural improvements today. For these reasons I choose to stick with the GFS solution of further weakening but that is just my opinion.
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hurricanes1234 wrote:Actually weakened.
Now I'm leaning strongly towards only weakening from here. Structure doesn't look good and this is too embedded in the ITCZ.
As someone said, where are the Amandas and Cristinas?
hurricanes1234 wrote:Reminds me of the inexplicable falling apart of Gil last year when it was in the open waters except this is barely a tropical storm.
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