ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

It's hard to throw in the towel for El Nino this year, especially if we are to compare this possible El Nino bust with 2012. If we are seeing a negative PDO right now, it might be easier to give up even on a weak El Nino event... That clearly isn't the case this time around. IMO, an El Nino can still be supported as we go into the last half of the year. There needs to be a reinforcement though before the transition from summer to autumn (strong MJO/Kelvin wave)... Lack of strong MJO pulse is killing the chance of EN..

This. If we can get a strong MJO pulse. we'll be fine. Until there El Nino is no bust but no guarantee.

[NDG]

On today's CPC update it looks like all Nino Regions cooled down except Nino 3 remains steady, biggest drop looks like for Nino 4.
BTW, no signs yet of a strong MJO pulse coming any time soon, but all reliable models are still indicating that El Nino will happen later this year.

[Alyono]

On today's CPC update it looks like all Nino Regions cooled down except Nino 3 remains steady, biggest drop looks like for Nino 4.
BTW, no signs yet of a strong MJO pulse coming any time soon, but all reliable models are still indicating that El Nino will happen later this year.

what reliable models? EC and CFS have ZERO or LITTLE skill.

ENSO CLIPER, the best ENSO model never had a strong el niño. Guess what, it is verifying

[Macrocane]

what reliable models? EC and CFS have ZERO or LITTLE skill.

ENSO CLIPER, the best ENSO model never had a strong el niño. Guess what, it is verifying

You're right, ECM is terrible, every year it has an El Niño coming. CFS is better though, I stil believe we could have a weak El Niño, but probably it won't even rech the +1.0°C anomaly.

[NDG]

On today's CPC update it looks like all Nino Regions cooled down except Nino 3 remains steady, biggest drop looks like for Nino 4.
BTW, no signs yet of a strong MJO pulse coming any time soon, but all reliable models are still indicating that El Nino will happen later this year.

what reliable models? EC and CFS have ZERO or LITTLE skill.

ENSO CLIPER, the best ENSO model never had a strong el niño. Guess what, it is verifying

I never mention the EC, every year it is warm bias. I have been paying attention to the CFSv2 and at the dynamical models' mean, the CFSv2 was probably one of the only models that forecasted the cooling of Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 the last couple of weeks since last month.
I have never believed that this was going to be another '97 episode since day one and more like '09, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC weekly update of 7/7/14 that has Nino 3.4 cooling a little bit to +0.4C.In other words more delay for El Nino to be declared officially.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[blp]

Here is the text of the CPC weekly update of 7/7/14 that has Nino 3.4 cooling a little bit to +0.4C.In other words more delay for El Nino to be declared officially.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Just curious how often has this situation happened were you have a dip in a developing el Nino. Last several Nino years just took off going up.

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC weekly update of 7/7/14 that has Nino 3.4 cooling a little bit to +0.4C.In other words more delay for El Nino to be declared officially.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Just curious how often has this situation happened were you have a dip in a developing el Nino. Last several Nino years just took off going up.

Really I don't recall past warm events doing what the 2014 ENSO is passing thru with many mixed signals delaying a El Nino proclamation.Since the big WWB that caused that large warm pool at the sub-surface in March,things haved turned for the worse to have El Nino proclamation by May,June,July or August.No new big WWB's haved occurred to reinforce that warm pool and that is why it has been shrinking steadily.The SOI behavior has been mixed as we know and the MJO has not been steady.The only factor that is in favor of El Nino has been the +PDO.

[asd123]

What is going on with this El Nino? In my opinion, especially looking at the subsurface ssta map (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0 5th image down), this potential el nino is heading towards a bust. In the past few weeks and months the ssta subsurface warm pool looked very healthy and primed toward an el nino, but the latest trend in the past week has been steadily trending cooler, with a large chunk of negative anomalies growing westward and damaging the warm pool.

Some people on here will say that the cool pool might help the warm pool surface, but that hasn't been happening. In the upper right corner of the image right above the massive warm pool the +2 anomalies have been rapidly shrinking, as well as the whole warm pool itself shrinking while the cooler anomalies expand eastward.

Additionally, the SOI has not been cooperating. SOI 30 and 90 days have been steadily going upward, (slight dip past couple of days, yesterday 30). Bottom line: overall upward trend.

Can anyone on this board including pro mets offer what is going on and offer a prediction as to what will happen in the next couple days, weeks, months and if they think this el nino is a bust.

Personally, as time has gone on, I think we are going more and more toward an el nino bust. sst anomalies have weakened considerably and the subsurface anoms have also weakened. Here is a weather experts take (not sure if this person is a meteorologist, but he sure seems to have a whole lot of experience with weather) http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... oming.html

[Yellow Evan]

This Nino is frustrating. I think there's plenty of time, but still, the lack of coherent MJO concerns me. We're overdue for an El Nino, but given the big cooling in near the dateline worries me. What is going on? Really I am confused.

Quick poll for the forum: What are the odds of this Nino busting AGAIN?

[Hurricaneman]

Of all the ENSO forecasts the one person thats been harping on that El Nino wouldn't develop or even be a weak one even as far back as February is Joe Bastardi and for all the bashing he gets he seems to be right about this one but it could change as we come into the fall months

[asd123]

Of all the ENSO forecasts the one person thats been harping on that El Nino wouldn't develop or even be a weak one even as far back as February is Joe Bastardi and for all the bashing he gets he seems to be right about this one but it could change as we come into the fall months

It's either a 50 50 chance it either happens or it doesn't. If he would have made predictions on strength, timing, etc. then that would be more noteworthy. I'm not really familiar with Bastardi's weather forecasting backgrounds and techniques but I have heard about his political rants infusing with his weather discussions; but all I know is that politics should stay out of weather, and he seems to be focused more on politics than weather. Not trying to bash, just a neutral opinion.

[Yellow Evan]

Of all the ENSO forecasts the one person thats been harping on that El Nino wouldn't develop or even be a weak one even as far back as February is Joe Bastardi and for all the bashing he gets he seems to be right about this one but it could change as we come into the fall months

He predicted a Modoki which looks unlikely.

[AJC3]

Of all the ENSO forecasts the one person thats been harping on that El Nino wouldn't develop or even be a weak one even as far back as February is Joe Bastardi and for all the bashing he gets he seems to be right about this one but it could change as we come into the fall months

He predicted a Modoki which looks unlikely.

You beat me to the punch. He has been beating the west-based drum for several months, whereas thus far this has been predominantly east-based. A Modoki event still appears the least likely scenario of all, although it's still very early in the game. I have to say I'm surprised at how much this proto-warm event is struggling to maintain its forward "momentum".

[cycloneye]

I only going to say about this= I am stunned.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^Actually that big drop was predicted by the CFSv2 when the warm pool would nearly dissipate by July, and may even drop more. Afterwards, there would be a sharp but steady rise as the warm pool restrengthens.

[hurricanetrack]

Luis - no reason to be stunned my friend. Predictions are one thing, observations are quite another. The data does not support an El Nino of any significance and we're seeing that now with this drop. The subsurface has been cooling and cooling - no more warm water coming in from west. Looks like another no go for any substantial Nino event.

[Yellow Evan]

Luis - no reason to be stunned my friend. Predictions are one thing, observations are quite another. The data does not support an El Nino of any significance and we're seeing that now with this drop. The subsurface has been cooling and cooling - no more warm water coming in from west. Looks like another no go for any substantial Nino event.

It's stunning given the strong signals for a massive El Nino earlier this year. We go from expecting a 1997 like El Nino forecast, to a strong but not super El Nino, to expecting a moderate El Nino forecast, to possibly a weak/none El Nino forecast

[NDG]

^Actually that big drop was predicted by the CFSv2 when the warm pool would nearly dissipate by July, and may even drop more. Afterwards, there would be a sharp but steady rise as the warm pool restrengthens.

http://imageshack.com/a/img840/3871/nrdu.gif

Agree, CFSv2 did a very good job of forecasting the cooling of Nino 3.4 since weeks ago, I am not surprised at all.

[xironman]

The Euro from June was in line as well with a lot of members doing a short term dip