A much weaker system on this run...WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical
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dexterlabio
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Whoa whoa look at the 12z GFS run...it looks like they just hit the break.. A much weaker system on this run...
A much weaker system on this run...
Last edited by dexterlabio on Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 101600
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
200 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 150.1E
ABOUT 395 MILES EAST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 390 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.1
EAST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 09W VERY NEAR GUAM AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
AM.
$$
WILLIAMS
WTPQ32 PGUM 101600
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
200 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 150.1E
ABOUT 395 MILES EAST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 390 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.1
EAST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 09W VERY NEAR GUAM AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
AM.
$$
WILLIAMS
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Re:
dexterlabio wrote:Whoa whoa look at the 12z GFS run...it looks like they just hit the break..
Upwelling from Neoguri causing the weakening?
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cycloneye
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Re:
dexterlabio wrote:Whoa whoa look at the 12z GFS run...it looks like they just hit the break..
Now watch the ECMWF pick it up.
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
Latest forecast from JTWC has 45 mph sustained winds for Guam. I welcome this change and the cool weather... I'm hating the hot sunny weather lately...It's so hot
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dexterlabio
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Re: Re:
euro6208 wrote:
Upwelling from Neoguri causing the weakening?
Maybe not, Neoguri tracked along a higher latitude.
LOL I get what you're talking about, cycloneye. When GFS drops a system, Euro picks it up. But right now I'll be putting more weight on ECMWF. I notice the Euro lacking consistency only before an actual system has actually formed. But once it's initialized correctly, the solution turns out to be closer to accurate than any other computer models.
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dexterlabio
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Ok it looks like GFS still has a typhoon but only when the storm is just east of Luzon and starts to move northwards...
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
Latest...
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
TXPQ28 KNES 101517
TCSWNP
A. 09W (NONAME)
B. 10/1432Z
C. 10.7N
D. 150.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .3 WH BAND. PT=2.0. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/0950Z 10.4N 151.1E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
TCSWNP
A. 09W (NONAME)
B. 10/1432Z
C. 10.7N
D. 150.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .3 WH BAND. PT=2.0. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/0950Z 10.4N 151.1E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
CMC does it's usual thing and has not one,not two,not three,not four but five.But is the CMC.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
cycloneye wrote:CMC does it's usual thing and has not one,not two,not three,not four but five.But is the CMC.
http://oi60.tinypic.com/2cmlkx3.jpg
That's the classic CMC that we know...hahaha
"canadian model of catastrophe"
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
346 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...
.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN...AND FOR THE MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 395 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
390 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR GUAM
AROUND NOON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING 09W NEAR ONE OF THE
OTHER MARIANA ISLANDS.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER PLAN AND BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.
&&
GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-110200-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.0001.140710T1746Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
346 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 40 MPH OR MORE AS 09W PASSES
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TRACK OF THE STORM
WILL DETERMINE WHICH ISLANDS GET TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF MAY BECOME HAZARADOUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON SATURDAY. BRIEF
COASTAL INUNDATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIASLLY NEAR HIGH TIDE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY AS 09W PASSES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE STORM. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
346 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...
.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN...AND FOR THE MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 395 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
390 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR GUAM
AROUND NOON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING 09W NEAR ONE OF THE
OTHER MARIANA ISLANDS.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER PLAN AND BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.
&&
GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-110200-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.0001.140710T1746Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
346 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 40 MPH OR MORE AS 09W PASSES
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TRACK OF THE STORM
WILL DETERMINE WHICH ISLANDS GET TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF MAY BECOME HAZARADOUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON SATURDAY. BRIEF
COASTAL INUNDATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIASLLY NEAR HIGH TIDE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY AS 09W PASSES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE STORM. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
Call me crazy but i am hoping for this to rapidly intensify and hit Guam as a Super Typhoon. It's been a while since we got something big as a matter of fact was in December of 2002 when Super Typhoon Pongsona came...I kinda miss the adrenaline...
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dexterlabio
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^LOL we know that you like that, just be careful what you wish for...
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dexterlabio
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quite a feat that from being designated as having low chance of development by JTWC early this morning, it was upgraded into a TD in the evening... Now we wait for JMA's storm warning on this potential "Rammasun"..
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
Outer bands coming into view...
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
18z Best Track:
09W NINE 140710 1800 11.4N 149.5E WPAC 30 1000
09W NINE 140710 1800 11.4N 149.5E WPAC 30 1000
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
JMA first forecast.
TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 10 July 2014
<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°50'(11.8°)
E149°30'(149.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E146°05'(146.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 10 July 2014
<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°50'(11.8°)
E149°30'(149.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E146°05'(146.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
The 21:00z warning by JTWC has a more south track than the first warning.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: 09W - Tropical Depression
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
800 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W INTENSIFYING SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39
MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 149.1E
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.1
EAST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W VERY NEAR GUAM AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 09W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200
PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
WILLIAMS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
800 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W INTENSIFYING SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39
MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 149.1E
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.1
EAST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W VERY NEAR GUAM AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 09W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200
PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
WILLIAMS
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