ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WeatherEmperor]

So is it possible that due to this expected and short term cooling, the el nino may still show up but come after the heart of the hurricane season...like late sept or early oct? I have a hard time seeing a fully established el nino and el nino conditions in place in the atlantic by aug/sept

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[NDG]

So is this like at least the third year in a row that the Euro has busted from its April 1st forecast?

[Cyclenall]

It's stunning given the strong signals for a massive El Nino earlier this year. We go from expecting a 1997 like El Nino forecast, to a strong but not super El Nino, to expecting a moderate El Nino forecast, to possibly a weak/none El Nino forecast

And then the next step is cool neutral conditions followed by the step I really like, La Nina . The TropicalTidbits daily 3.4 graph dropped to a negative anomaly of -0.009 today!! Insane is the word. I repeat, if this doesn't become an El Nino then this will be the biggest bust in meteorological history.

[cycloneye]

That is why I used the word stunning.Is not that it has gone down but how fast it has done so.

[Yellow Evan]

So is it possible that due to this expected and short term cooling, the el nino may still show up but come after the heart of the hurricane season...like late sept or early oct? I have a hard time seeing a fully established el nino and el nino conditions in place in the atlantic by aug/sept

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

We sorta have that now. Remember we've had borderline El Nino conditions for quite a while.

[Kingarabian]

Wait, holdup.

So we're not supposed to put too much stock in satellite readings if they show too much warming, yet we're allowed to instantly believe them when they show massive and un-orthodox cooling?

That Levi graph is crazy. Something isn't right. Shame that we're in 2014 and we can't get decent observations from the buoys and satellites.

[cycloneye]

There is some hope for El Nino chances that the next Typhoon (Now Invest 92W) may make a good WWB to warm things eastward but is too soon to know.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

3.4 is so far west though....

[somethingfunny]

From Texas to California, we really really need this El Nino to not fail.

[Frank2]

If it comes true, since they've been observed it's not too often that a developing El Nino dissipates - in the past once it starts it usually stays, unlike the 2006 event that wasn't supposed to happen during the summer and began earlier than expected, and completely shut off the remainder of that season.

Unfortunately though as the other poster said the Southwest really benefits from an El Nino event...

Frank

[Yellow Evan]

If it comes true, since they've been observed it's not too often that a developing El Nino dissipates

Only happened twice in 1993 and 2012.

[cycloneye]

I found this discussion at WU very interesting about what is gong on with ENSO and that is why I am bringing it here:

ESPI was -.37, now it's -.48...It's tanking & signaling a cooling...it's been cool for a month & enso has certainly followed.. SOI is responding to El Nino but it's a follower at this point & the daily amount is pointing to cooling again. Alot of heat surfaced & left the ocean without spreading back to the west like usual...Should see some of that heat in the atmosphere, notable arctic melt year, epic rainfalls & mudslides continue..(See the new lake China got this week?)... The EPAC hurricanes have been helping disperse it too. There is still some warm water floating around, especially 1 & 2. Where it ends up is the question. Region 3.4 is the cool spot right now. Even if the heat starts spreading west, if it's long enough to get an El Nino declared is looking iffy since there's a lack of strength of Kelvin wave & there isn't a lot of subsurface heat left.

Yeah el nino isn't out of the question. More El Nino conditions is likely. But for a declared one, it takes five months of three month averages .5 or above. We don't even have one month of that average yet & the sub surface heat is greatly diminished, with some cold returning. This heat so far has not spread back west. It could & then even linger. This has been a tougher year for predicting it. It started doing it's thing, then we didn't really get the sun cycle peak, ESPI & SOI haven't responded alot or held & the Kelvin waves diminished. Neoguri might help, though kind of north. India's monsoons don't seem to be contributing so much.

[Ntxw]

There has definitely a lot cooling going on in the CPAC with anomalous easterlies before weakening next week. If this Nino fails, the odds of a La Nina (IMO) become less next year as new Nina's generally come after significant Nino's. There has never been neutral that goes into La Nina.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center July update of 7/10/14

No big change from past monthly updates in terms of the probabilties.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 July 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


Synopsis: The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.

During June 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were most prominent in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with weakening evident near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). This weakening was reflected in a decrease to +0.3oC in the Niño-4 index (Fig. 2). The Niño-3.4 index remained around +0.5oC throughout the month, while the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices are +1.0oC or greater. Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) have decreased substantially since late March 2014 and are now near average (Fig. 3). However, above-average subsurface temperatures remain prevalent near the surface (down to 100m depth) in the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. 4). The upper-level and low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average, except for low-level westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Convection was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line and over portions of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Still, the lack of a clear and consistent atmospheric response to the positive SSTs indicates ENSO-neutral.

Over the last month, no significant change was evident in the model forecasts of ENSO, with the majority of models indicating El Niño onset within June-August and continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The chance of a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 1.4oC). The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[NDG]

Nino 3.4 does indeed looks very neutral this week.

[Kingarabian]

They're still confident on some sort of El Nino. Interesting.

[Hurricaneman]

I think its going to one of those better late than never El Ninos that doesn't get reinforcement until sometime in October and then I still only believe a Weak to moderate El Nino is going to happen at best

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[LarryWx]

Wait, holdup.

So we're not supposed to put too much stock in satellite readings if they show too much warming, yet we're allowed to instantly believe them when they show massive and un-orthodox cooling?

That Levi graph is crazy. Something isn't right. Shame that we're in 2014 and we can't get decent observations from the buoys and satellites.

Your point is valid. No, we absolutely shouldn't as far as I'm concerned.

[WeatherGuesser]

So, the coming winter as compared to last winter might be .... ????

[cycloneye]

Let's see if the new Kelvin Wave/MJO activity propagating eastward warm things in the next few weeks.

The amplitude of the Wheeler-Hendon RMM MJO Index increased during the past several days, with the enhanced convective phase propagating rapidly over the Maritime Continent, suggestive of Kelvin Wave activity. Dynamical models are in better agreement favoring the potential for this activity to evolve into a lower frequency subseasonal mode more consistent with MJO activity over the West Pacific.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/