WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

I also do not know why JT upgraded this. Should be more organization and or data to justify an upgrade

[Alyono]

multi-platform satellite analysis has 43 KT... but I have questions if there is a closed circ

[cycloneye]

JTWC 15:00z warning tones down intensity for the period a little bit.

[stormcruisin]

[euro6208]

torrential rains hitting guam and rota!

[cycloneye]

Discussion of the 15:00z warning by JTWC:

WDPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
SURROUNDING A SMALL, TIGHTLY COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 111132Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE CONSOLIDATED
STRUCTURE OF THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING
TO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION
AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS REMAINED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT STRUCTURE AS
WELL AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ASSESSMENT FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. HOWEVER,
THE INTENSITY JTWC FORECAST HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED DUE TO AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE AID INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND STRONG
OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH AT TAU 36.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG IN FROM EASTERN CHINA AND MODIFY THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS
MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOW TS 09W AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIVE
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE SST AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND TRACK SPEEDS
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Closest point of approach for Tropical storm 09W expected to be 6 am local time, about 5 hours and 30 minutes from now and strongest winds expected to be at 10 am local time...

[stormcruisin]

Just saying imo t don't look that bad.

It is clearly disorganized and has the center displaced to the East of the system. It will not yet intensify much in the next 12 hours because of some shear from the east, but may later intensify faster and further to a typhoon (in the JTWC forecast).

looks to me its trying to organise

[euro6208]

Guam currently under Condition of Readiness 1, which means that damaging winds are expected within 12 hours.

Damaging winds around 39 mph are expected around 6 a.m. Saturday, and destructive winds around 58 mph are expected around 10 a.m.

[euro6208]

Using latest JTWC position has it passing south of me. Pretty impressive for such a small island...

[euro6208]

Some useful tips for residents of the islands...

• Gas your car and get fuel for your generators.

• Clean your yard and the outside of your house of anything that could fly in high winds.

• Stock up on non-perishable foods (like can goods) and drinking water.

• Get batteries for flashlights and batter-operated radios. It is important that you have a battery-operated radio.

• Get your shutters ready. You may need to put them up based on more information we will have this afternoon about this potential storm.

• Go to the pharmacy to refill prescription medication.

• If you rely on electricity to power machines you need to stay alive, please make arrangements now with a relative or a neighbor who has a working generator. Stay with that person.

• Pick up any objects in your yard that can move with a heavy gust of wind. Store these objects so they don’t fly away.

• Fill up your tonkey/55-gallon drum or plastic containers with a just-in-case water supply

[euro6208]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itt8d8tNozo[/youtube]

Here is what you need to know:

1. Worst conditions are expected Saturday morning. Damaging winds of approximately 39 mph is expected around 1 a.m. Saturday. Destructive winds of approximately 58 mph are expected around 5 a.m. Saturday.

2. Wind shearing (system of changing winds separate from the storm) is preventing accurate locating of Tropical Strom 09W’s center. This may change the time when the storm hits Guam. Chip Guard from the NWS says the shearing may push back the storm’s closest point of approach.

3. The tropical storm is moving West/Northwest at 15 mph

4. Wind at the center of the storm is around 40 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph.

5. NWS expects around 4-6 inches of rain during the passage of the tropical storm

6. The storm will bring strong rip currents, and flooding in low-lying coastal areas

7. Chip Guard from NWS expects the following damage as a result of the storm: debris from dead tree limbs, damage to substandard homes, few secondary power lines down, damage to most signs/canopies.

[dexterlabio]

Typical sheared TC. JTWC used to do an upgrade depending on DT number, but lately they've been raising the intensity of a cyclone even if it doesn't match the current DT... Dvorak estimates of this storm support a 25kt tropical depression but JTWC raised the intensity to 35kts.

[euro6208]

Typical sheared TC. JTWC used to do an upgrade depending on DT number, but lately they've been raising the intensity of a cyclone even if it doesn't match the current DT... Dvorak estimates of this storm support a 25kt tropical depression but JTWC raised the intensity to 35kts.

I guess maybe an upgrade for it being so close to land and to prepare sooner plus it's a small system and small systems are susceptible to the environment which could lead to rapid weakening or strengthening...

I've seen worser...

[euro6208]

Looks like the areas of deepest convection is spreading more north and covering the CNMI... according to the latest satellite...

[euro6208]

Downpour continues.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 111554
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
200 AM CHST SAT JUL 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 09W STILL A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.2N 145.5E

ABOUT 55 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 09W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.5 EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 09W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM 09W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALMOST DUE WEST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO
GUAM THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH...BUT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[Alyono]

This is a heavy rain event for Guam. Not a significant TC event at all

Almost certainly, this has dissipated now. I can no longer see a center on satellite imagery

[dexterlabio]

This is a heavy rain event for Guam. Not a significant TC event at all

Almost certainly, this has dissipated now. I can no longer see a center on satellite imagery

interesting that you said that...do you think there's a chance for the ECMWF solution to pan out? that it will remain as an disorganized low?

[Alyono]

This is a heavy rain event for Guam. Not a significant TC event at all

Almost certainly, this has dissipated now. I can no longer see a center on satellite imagery

interesting that you said that...do you think there's a chance for the ECMWF solution to pan out? that it will remain as an disorganized low?

it cannot be ruled out given the developments of today