WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[stormcruisin]

This is a heavy rain event for Guam. Not a significant TC event at all

Almost certainly, this has dissipated now. I can no longer see a center on satellite imagery

Well it certainly never dissipated and looks more likely to keep organizing and may well be a TY as it approaches the Philippines.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 120203
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
200 PM CHST SAT JUL 12 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.9N 144.0E

ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 80 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 09W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD LATER TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AWAY FROM GUAM AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 MPH. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AGAIN TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

In a very favorable environment and these waters extend to great depths which can cause rapid strenthening and moist atmosphere. Hard to believe forecast has only a borderline major. We'll see.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In a very favorable environment and these waters extend to great depths which can cause rapid strenthening and moist atmosphere. Hard to believe forecast has only a borderline major. We'll see.

How about the shear? The dry air?

I was very surprised when the forecast was calling for a major, and the intensification is a lot slower than expected, and the LLC got misplaced to the east. Maybe a weak typhoon with a more westerly than NW track?

[dexterlabio]

^Shear looks to have decreased along the possible path of this storm, accdg to available shear graphs... However, VWS is variable..it could suddenly increase or decrease. But I agree with you regarding a more westerly track...looks like the STR won't let up soon...

[stormcruisin]

In a very favorable environment and these waters extend to great depths which can cause rapid strenthening and moist atmosphere. Hard to believe forecast has only a borderline major. We'll see.

How about the shear? The dry air?

I was very surprised when the forecast was calling for a major, and the intensification is a lot slower than expected, and the LLC got misplaced to the east. Maybe a weak typhoon with a more westerly than NW track?

Where is the shear? where is the dry air?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In a very favorable environment and these waters extend to great depths which can cause rapid strenthening and moist atmosphere. Hard to believe forecast has only a borderline major. We'll see.

How about the shear? The dry air?

I was very surprised when the forecast was calling for a major, and the intensification is a lot slower than expected, and the LLC got misplaced to the east. Maybe a weak typhoon with a more westerly than NW track?

Where is the shear? where is the dry air?

MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR TO THE NW OF THE SYSTEM, and 09W is about to directly cross the area. Well, afterwards, it would wear off and intensify. That is why the GFS runs show not much intensification for the next 2 days then it will later intensify rapidly as I have mentioned earlier.

[vrif]

GFS going more and more west

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If it goes more west, as GFS shows in their latest run, it would be really bad for Metro Manila. It would also encounter more OHC and overall more favorable conditions compared to it going to Northern Luzon. THIS will surely bring at least heavy rain and winds to the national capital.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

09W is looking good and is gaining some deep convection.. A upgrade back to TS?



We will see.

Tropical Synopsis Including 09W: http://goo.gl/wVbUVo


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[dexterlabio]

If it goes more west, as GFS shows in their latest run, it would be really bad for Metro Manila. It would also encounter more OHC and overall more favorable conditions compared to it going to Northern Luzon. THIS will surely bring at least heavy rain and winds to the national
capital.

High shear over Northern Luzon is evident as shown by the shear line in visible imagery. I agree it would have a hard time organizing the more northward it goes... As for Manila, if the forecast track verifies, only good thing is that this storm is relatively small...

This reminds me now of Typhoon Utor from last year.

[euro6208]

Yeah deep convection developing and outflow is improving.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking BETTER, but not enough for a tropical storm.

[stormcruisin]

If it goes more west, as GFS shows in their latest run, it would be really bad for Metro Manila. It would also encounter more OHC and overall more favorable conditions compared to it going to Northern Luzon. THIS will surely bring at least heavy rain and winds to the national
capital.

High shear over Northern Luzon is evident as shown by the shear line in visible imagery. I agree it would have a hard time organizing the more northward it goes... As for Manila, if the forecast track verifies, only good thing is that this storm is relatively small...

This reminds me now of Typhoon Utor from last year.

Ha you say you think it have a hard time to organize but it reminds you of powerful typhoon Utor well that certainly organised ha.

[dexterlabio]

Ha you say you think it have a hard time to organize but it reminds you of powerful typhoon Utor well that certainly organised ha.

the more northward it goes...

Utor remained a tropical disturbance until it entered the philippine AOR, and it looks like this storm will get its act together the further west it goes... so the resemblance..

[dexterlabio]

A more westward track of TC's isn't typical of July or August, especially during non-La Nina years...

[stormcruisin]

Utor track


This TD looks well ahead at this point of time in development just saying it only just left Guam.

[euro6208]

Yesterday it was very cool and rainy today very hot hot hot. Oh just wish it stalled over us but oh well.

[stormcruisin]

Just as a reference this is what Gillian looked like at 35 knots a genuine TS to compare with.

[supercane4867]

WTPQ21 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 13.4N 142.7E POOR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 70NM

Tropical Storm Rammasun