WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

It would be interesting if there are web cams in Manila and other places as it appears somewhere in Luzon this will make landfall.

[phwxenthusiast]

this is where the LLCC is i think...




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[euro6208]

CDO has morphed into a very small circulation...

[euro6208]

Seems like it's trying to develop an eye...Really really small system...It's small size gives the impression of a weak developing system...Dvorak is useless for small storms...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[Alyono]

Euro... an eye? really?

Cannot be an eye when the center is exposed.

Also, this likely wont increase immediately once it hits the lower shear. For about the first 12 to 24 hours in the low shear environment, because there are fast easterlies moving into an area of slower easterlies, this creates upper convergence. Upper convergence is unfavorable for development. May have to spend 24 hours or so in the low shear environment before conditions become favorable.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

The storm seems to be struggling a bit. Regardless, I believe further intensification is possible.

Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/WErc1m


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

09W RAMMASUN 140712 1800 13.6N 140.5E WPAC 35 996

[cycloneye]

The 18:50 UTC warning by JMA:

TS 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 12 July 2014
<Analyses at 12/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°35'(13.6°)
E139°40'(139.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°20'(13.3°)
E134°55'(134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°)
E130°30'(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°40'(14.7°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[cycloneye]

The JTWC 21:00 UTC warning.

[Hurricane_Luis]

http://i59.tinypic.com/2e38wmh.gif

http://i57.tinypic.com/o0nzmt.gif

http://i61.tinypic.com/11ui39j.gif

Seems like it's trying to develop an eye...Really really small system...It's small size gives the impression of a weak developing system...Dvorak is useless for small storms...

40 mph Tropical Storms don't have eyes. The LLC is just underneath the convection.

[Alyono]

i am not sure at all what JT and JMA are doing with these intensity forecasts

Latest GFS indicates dissipation over the Philippines with only slight intensification prior

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The actual center is now at the eastern tip of the deep convection.

[dexterlabio]

At this rate, we might be giving props to ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track has no change by JTWC at 35kts.

09W RAMMASUN 140713 0000 13.6N 138.4E WPAC 35 996

[cycloneye]

JMA latest warning stays at 35kts. The problem of this system is that is moving too fast to not allow consolidation to take place and combined with the shear that is what is going on.

TS 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 13 July 2014
<Analyses at 13/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°40'(13.7°)
E137°30'(137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E134°50'(134.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E132°20'(132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[mrbagyo]

RAMMASUN remains disorganized

[cycloneye]

The 03:00z warning by JTWC:

WDPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM NORTH
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 14 FEET. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS FLOWING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT IN PART DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE LLCC IS
DIFFICULT. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE SEEN A MARKED INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS
13 KNOTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF TS 09W REMAINS AN ANCHORED
FEATURE, BUT AS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO COALESCE, THERE APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN A JUMP IN THE POSITIONING OF THE CIRCULATION. CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS AS THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
REMAINS A FRESH FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT 36, LEADING TO SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. NEAR TAU 48, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR.
C. AFTER TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, WHICH WILL MODIFY THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, REACHING 95 KNOTS
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL SIGNIFI-
CANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
BY TAU 96 THE LAND INFLUENCE WILL DECREASE THE STORM STRENGTH TO
70 KNOTS, BUT AS THE SYSTEM REORIENTS, INTENSITIES WILL AGAIN START
TO INCREASE THROUGH TAU 120, CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 85 KNOTS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE RECENT TRACK SPEED
CHANGES, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

I don't know about that 95kt forecast... I seriously doubt this will ever make it to Category 2 let alone a typhoon... there's really no slowing this thing down and the shear isn't really abating... even the GFS which was the most aggressive with this storm is no longer enthused...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[dexterlabio]

Here thinking this could more of a rain than wind event in Luzon... Deep convection keeps getting displaced to the west and south..

[mrbagyo]

Here thinking this could more of a rain than wind event in Luzon... Deep convection keeps getting displaced to the west and south..

yeah, brings back the memories of Ketsana, the center is far away from the capital but the shear pushed the convective clouds right over Manila to put some of the worst rain event ever experienced there.

I'm currently working in Manila, and I always roam the whole metro almost everyday. It's so f'''''g vulnerable to flooding.