WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

JMA latest warning stays at 35kts. The problem of this system is that is moving too fast to not allow consolidation to take place and combined with the shear that is what is going on.

Cycloneeye,

You are mistaken when you say the system is moving too fast. It is moving TOO SLOW. The center is east of the convection. That means the upper winds are moving faster than the center. To reduce the shear, the system has accelerate even more

Haiyan was moving close to 25 kts at times, yet it underwent very quick intensification

[Alyono]

95 kts by JT? Please dont tell me they are solely using STIPS to do their forecasts?

If this does not pan out, it will be hard to take anything seriously from them

[dexterlabio]

Here thinking this could more of a rain than wind event in Luzon... Deep convection keeps getting displaced to the west and south..

yeah, brings back the memories of Ketsana, the center is far away from the capital but the shear pushed the convective clouds right over Manila to put some of the worst rain event ever experienced there.

I'm currently working in Manila, and I always roam the whole metro almost everyday. It's so f'''''g vulnerable to flooding.

Even a one-hour thunderstorm causes serious flooding in the main roads of Manila. Rain event even from a weak TS is a no win for a crowded urbanized city..

[ManilaTC]

Here thinking this could more of a rain than wind event in Luzon... Deep convection keeps getting displaced to the west and south..

yeah, brings back the memories of Ketsana, the center is far away from the capital but the shear pushed the convective clouds right over Manila to put some of the worst rain event ever experienced there.

I'm currently working in Manila, and I always roam the whole metro almost everyday. It's so f'''''g vulnerable to flooding.

Even a one-hour thunderstorm causes serious flooding in the main roads of Manila. Rain event even from a weak TS is a no win for a crowded urbanized city..

Darn it all that energy it will release as rain with Orographic lifting.

[euro6208]

The God of Thunder over the warmest heat content in the world but shear is the limiting factor...

[euro6208]

00Z GFS astonishing run...

A weak 1003 mb tropical storm making landfall over luzon...

Quite a change from past runs especially when this was approaching Guam as it was showing a very powerful typhoon...

Euro also barely develops this...

[mrbagyo]

TXPQ28 KNES 130351
TCSWNP

A. 09W (RAMMASUN)

B. 13/0301Z

C. 13.7N

D. 137.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 IS BASED ON A SHEAR MATRIX CALCULATION THAT
INCLUDES CIRCULAR LL CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER THAT IS NEAR A SMALL AREA
OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET AND PT ARE 2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/0038Z 13.7N 138.6E AMSU


...RAMIREZ

[cycloneye]

The 09:00z warning discussion.

WDPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
UNCHANGED STRUCTURE WITH SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE
LEADING WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AND HINTS AT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130451Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION
OF A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONTINUED
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION WHICH IS BASED UPON
THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH POSITIONAL FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD THAT ARE 45NM SPREAD APART. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON THE UNCHANGED STRUCTURE AND CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TS 09W IS QUICKLY TRACKING WEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS
ANCHORED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE PAST 12 HOUR TRACK SPEED INCREASES AND FORECAST INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED IN THE EARLY TERM DUE TO EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LAND
INTERACTION WITH LUZON.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. AFTER TAU 48, A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS EASTERN CHINA, WHICH
WILL MODIFY THE STR LEADING TO A SLIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DEFLECTION IN TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL LUZON.
THE CURRENT MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO JUST REACH TYPHOON
STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE ROUGH TERRAIN
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT RE-EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AFTER TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS RAMMASUN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TOWARDS
HAINAN ISLAND. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DECREASED VWS, AND
INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND THE RECENT TRACK SPEED CHANGES, THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//

[cycloneye]

Wow,how inactive this thread has turned into. It says all about how things are progressing giving the ECMWF props. But those in Luzon don't take this easy as flooding and mudslides will occur as this moves thru.

[dexterlabio]

King Euro may have returned. The recent ECMWF run though is the "strongest" they have shown for Rammasun, from a disorganized low to a weak TS. Latest GFS also back to a strong TS/weak typhoon hitting Manila. Time to declog to sewers in the metropolitan area, I say...

[cycloneye]

Here is the 15:00 UTC discussion.

WDPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
LOOSELY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS AN ISOLATED
BURST OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. A 131056Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC THAT HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN DEFINITION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION WHICH IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH POSITIONAL FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TS 09W IS QUICKLY TRACKING WEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. AFTER TAU
48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS EASTERN CHINA,
WHICH WILL MODIFY THE STR LEADING TO A SLIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DEFLECTION IN TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL LUZON.
THE CURRENT MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL
TYPHOON STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO LUZON. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE ROUGH TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT RE-EMERGES IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A TROPICAL STORM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS RAMMASUN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TOWARDS
NORTHERN HAINAN ISLAND, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 120 INTO THE
LUICHOW PENINSULA. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DECREASED VWS, AND
INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL ALLOW FOR RE-
INTENSIFICATION REACHING 80 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED BUT IS
OTHERWISE TIGHTLY GROUPED. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 40kts.

09W RAMMASUN 140713 1800 13.3N 132.4E WPAC 40 993

[cycloneye]

JMA up to 45kts.

TS 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 13 July 2014
<Analyses at 13/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25'(13.4°)
E132°25'(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 14/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35'(13.6°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°40'(14.7°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°00'(17.0°)
E118°20'(118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

[dexterlabio]

I am not sure if there is an increase in organization (?) Both JMA and JTWC increased the intensity. Maybe when I wake up there is something decent to look at...

[Dave C]

I looped a water vapor pic and there is a weak upper low moving in tandem with it. You can see it just ne of Rammasun creating an area of convergence aloft over the ne quadrant of the system.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS is showing a category 1 typhoon over Bicol.

[ManilaTC]

Hmm getting 3.8's on the Dvorak ADT this morning. Its in an area of TC sustenance... The Philippine Sea.

2014JUL13 223200 3.8 990.6 61.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -81.88 -83.21 EMBC N/A N/A 13.31 -131.18 FCST MTSAT2 22.4

2014JUL13 223200 3.9 980.9 +3.3 63.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -81.88 -83.95 EMBC N/A N/A 13.29 -130.90 FCST MTSAT2 22.6

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2014 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 13:18:39 N Lon : 131:10:32 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 993.3mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.7 3.9

Center Temp : -81.9C Cloud Region Temp : -83.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 32km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.4 degrees

[Alyono]

This has become better organzied and may be a 45 kt storm. Probably a strong TS or a low end typhoon for the Philippines.

While not the most intense storm, it could move over Manila

[ManilaTC]

This has become better organzied and may be a 45 kt storm. Probably a strong TS or a low end typhoon for the Philippines.

While not the most intense storm, it could move over Manila

This could reach Cat1... it would be enough to KO power over the city for a couple of days... I hope my Wireless internet canopy can withstand 100kph winds...

[cycloneye]

It would be interesting if there are web cams in Manila and other places as it appears somewhere in Luzon this will make landfall.

More important now to see what will be going on in Manila and vicinity to have cams.