Texas Summer - 2014

[aggiecutter]

The next 6-10 from the WPC:

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose's latest weather blog:

Dry and Hot this Weekend. Slightly Cooler Air Arriving the Middle of Next Week.
Friday, July 11, 2014 3:48 PM

The Outlook for Tuesday through Friday: An unusually deep area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to develop over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions early next week. This area of low pressure will allow unusually cool air to sink south out of northwestern Canada into the central US. The cold front bringing the cool air is forecast to reach the Red River Valley early Tuesday then slowly sink south into the Hill Country and Central Texas regions late Tuesday into Wednesday. The front is forecast to pull up stationary somewhere around Interstate 10 on Wednesday. An area of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and behind the cold front across the Hill Country and Central Texas late Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday. Scattered rain showers look to spread south to the coastal plains region on Wednesday. Weak disturbances spreading into Texas behind the cold front look to cause a continued chance for scattered rain showers between late Wednesday and late Friday. As of now, rain amounts are expected to be less than an inch. There are some indications the chance for rain may extend into next weekend as well. While this cold front won't be a "blue norther", the front is expected to lower temperatures about 5 to 8 degrees. (Keep in mind that cold fronts in Central Texas during the middle of July are somewhat rare). High temperatures Wednesday through Friday should be in the low 90s. Low temperatures will be in the mid 60s to 70 degrees.

July Climate Update: Temperatures through the first ten days of July have been near to slightly below normal across Central Texas and slightly above normal across the Hill Country. In Austin, the average temperature at Camp Mabry has been 84.1 degrees, which is exactly normal. The average temperature at Austin-Bergstrom has also been 81.4 degrees, but that value is 1.4 degrees below normal for the Austin-Bergstrom location. So far, no 100-degree temperatures have been recorded. But there is still a lot more of summer to go.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[srainhoutx]

There are not a lot of changes via the 12Z of guidance for next week. It is interesting that the frontal boundary is precariously close by for locations from the Panhandle through Central and SE Texas and on into Louisiana. Some of the computer models are suggesting some fairly hefty rainfall totals along that boundary as well as a surge of deeper tropical moisture from the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf.

[TheProfessor]

Hello sorry for the slow posting, I'm wrapping up a vacation from universal studios, we drove part of the drive back and now my family and I are spending the night in a hotel in Baton Rouge, unfortunately, my sister claimed the bed so I had sleep on the couch and long story short, the couch has roaches so I decided not to sleep. Anyway it looks like NWS is predicting 3.5" of rain in North Texas so the forecast is looking good. Though I'm a bit spoiled because it rained every day in Orlando, so the temperatures at the park were in the mid 70s.

[Ntxw]

Not too many things to add, models have not waffled much on pattern change. Another two days of hot weather and rain, clouds, and cooler weather dominates. Front position, disturbances, and local features will dictate how much rain any given area receives. 70s and low 80s will prevail the northern half of the state.

Latest from WPC

[dhweather]

For ENTERTAINMENT purposes only. 7/12 12Z Euro run total precip. I would be extremely surprised if this much happens. Has the big rain coming from a system dropping out of the rockies next Thursday/Friday. My opinion - Maybe in the 1" range, 2" for the lucky ones. Of course, all liquid gold is welcome, just wish we would get a lot more.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS



12z GEFS



Lets hope consensus is right. It is July, anything in July in Texas is nothing less of a Miracle unless you are talking about a landfalling tropical system.

From FW this afternoon

****


THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE RAIN POTENTIAL FROM
MID TO LATE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ALL
OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...ARE IN PLACE
OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE CWA CAUSING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO INCREASE
ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY MOIST...UNCAPPED AND
CONTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TARGETING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY EVENING...TAKING A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN
THE FIRST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH WHERE
CONVECTION IS FAVORED WITH THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY. BUT BECAUSE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED IT
LIKELY INCREASES THE PROBABILITY THAT A MCS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND TRAVEL INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. THIS MEANS AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WOULD GET THEIR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL BELIEVE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THE BEST
LOOKING AND MOST REASONABLE QPF TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENT. IT IS
PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO START THROWING OUT A QPF FORECAST...BUT IT
SEEMS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ZONES WILL HAVE HIGHER AVERAGE
AMOUNTS THAN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL COVERAGE MORE THAN ANY TRUE
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNNY AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S WITH EASE...BUT SOME NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE STUCK
IN THE 70S AND 80S. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY WITH
MOST OF THE CWA NOT SEEING ANY 90S FOR HIGHS.

[Ntxw]

And there she is, at the US/Canadian border.

[gpsnowman]

Quite honestly, one of the sweetest, strangest summer maps I have ever seen. Getting excited for rain and cooler temps. Let's hope the summer death HP dome decides to stay away from Texas for a while after this pattern change. Just hope August is gentle with Texas. The temps forecasted for areas in the Midwest are just ridiculous.
On a side note, my backyard trees are already producing acorns. Earliest I have seen by far in the six summers here in GP. What does this mean for fall and winter? Heck, I don't have a clue. Last winter the acorns were as big and numerous as I have seen. El Nino 09 produced a lot as well. A bit off topic but seeing mid-summer acorns is rare for my untrained eye. Everyone, enjoy the rain and cool down.

[TheProfessor]

Also, as we approach fall, start looking to see how big the fire ant hills are getting, last year I read that if they get bigger then usual then that usually means a colder winter, and last year I saw the anthills get big and of course we had a really cold winter. Even though I'm allergic to them, I hope I see some really big ant hills again.

[ravyrn]

Steve McCauley's thoughts on facebook:

We made it to 99 °F again today, and it looks like our first official triple-digit day for the Metroplex will be tomorrow (Sunday) with another one to follow on Monday. The air continues to sink across the area making it extremely difficult to impossible for clouds to tower up into thunderstorms. BUT THAT WILL BE CHANGING next week.

First, a cold front will arrive Tuesday morning bringing a chance for a few showers and temps falling back into the lower 90s. No big deal, But Wednesday night through Friday will see an unusually strong upper-level disturbance sweep directly over north Texas which "should" obliterate the cap and open our skies and allow widespread rain to fall. Temps will struggle to get to get into the 80s by Thursday, and parts of Oklahoma may not get out of the 60s !

This is very much NOT the climatology for this time of year. It is worthwhile to note that computer models are strongly influenced by a region's climatology (long term averages) when it comes to making their long-range predictions, and it is interesting to see them fight against what they "think" should happen this time of year in terms of climate and what the atmosphere may actually end up doing for the latter half of next week.

[somethingfunny]

For ENTERTAINMENT purposes only. 7/12 12Z Euro run total precip. I would be extremely surprised if this much happens. Has the big rain coming from a system dropping out of the rockies next Thursday/Friday. My opinion - Maybe in the 1" range, 2" for the lucky ones. Of course, all liquid gold is welcome, just wish we would get a lot more.

Man this is gonna be so awesome. I hope the maximum precipitation falls in the right places.

BECAUSE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED IT
LIKELY INCREASES THE PROBABILITY THAT A MCS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND TRAVEL INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

This sounds like a potential severe weather event.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I wonder how all the dumping of this cold air out of the arctic will affect the ice coverage up there. The latest ice graph showed a rapid decrease of ice for the last month.

[Portastorm]

I wonder how all the dumping of this cold air out of the arctic will affect the ice coverage up there. The latest ice graph showed a rapid decrease of ice for the last month.

The Arctic ice levels always decrease in summer. That's standard. However the latest graphic does suggest the rate of decrease has ramped up some.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[aggiecutter]

I wonder how all the dumping of this cold air out of the arctic will affect the ice coverage up there. The latest ice graph showed a rapid decrease of ice for the last month.

The Arctic ice levels always decrease in summer. That's standard. However the latest graphic does suggest the rate of decrease has ramped up some.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[Ntxw]

I'm not educated enough on ice melt to answer, but what I can say per guidance is that the pattern is actually going to create colder conditions over the Arctic especially in the western side (Pacific) over the Beaufort Sea and Central Arctic basin. This is where thicker ice is and needs to be preserved with low pressure. Our cool down is not actually Arctic origin it's a result of the mid latitude blocking through Alaska and Canada from the Pacific (Neoguri's tropical forcing).

The guidance continues to show widespread heavy rain, 1-3 for much of the eastern 2/3rds of the state. North/NE/East Texas may see greater totals 3-8 inches. I would not be surprised if flood watches were issued in some locales, and probably flash flood warnings or flood warnings for any of the MCS, storms that train. The models have been getting wetter as we get closer, which is a good trend to see. The Canadian has a crazy slow moving rain bomb along I-20 and I-30 as does a GFS.

[aggiecutter]

According to the WPS, the Red River Valley folks had better dust off their hip waders:

[TheProfessor]

Accuweather has gone Crazy,(I hope its right though) Its forecasting 8 inches of rain for the cities using Fort-Worth Alliance weather conditions like Roanoke, but 4.93 inches for cities using DFW as their weather conditions like Trophy Club and Southlake. Though Accuweather isn't reliable a lot of the times. I sure hope that is prediction for alliance is correct, that would be some crazy summer rain!

[somethingfunny]

Accuweather has gone Crazy,(I hope its right though) Its forecasting 8 inches of rain for the cities using Fort-Worth Alliance weather conditions like Roanoke, but 4.93 inches for cities using DFW as their weather conditions like Trophy Club and Southlake. Though Accuweather isn't reliable a lot of the times. I sure hope that is prediction for alliance is correct, that would be some crazy summer rain!

I believe Accuweather, like most private-sector non-subscription sources, uses GFS data for its' free forecasts. If it's not raw GFS data, then it's practically raw but adjusted via a computer algorithm to compensate for past model error trends. That's usually pretty decent, but obviously worth taking with a grain of salt. The Fort Worth Weather Service office actually mentioned the GFS and that potential rainfall total in their forecast discussion this afternoon:

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS RUNS LATELY HAVE BEEN
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH CONTAMINATED MASS FIELD
AND OUTRAGEOUSLY HIGH QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN UNDERGO A FEEDBACK LOOP OF ITS OWN AS A
RESULT OF WARM CORE VORTEX AMPLIFICATION...THIS IS UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR WHEN ANY LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY...IE A FRONT...IS IN THE
AREA. THUS IF A MCS WERE TO FORM IT WOULD TRACK FASTER TO THE
SOUTHEAST THAN THE GFS INDICATES...AND WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

STILL THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY DROP
AN EASY 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA BEING MORE FAVORED.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX has an interesting discussion this morning for this area. Mentions rain Tuesday, which was not originally predicted. Exciting developments!


".PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TUTT LOW OVER EAST TX IS TRYING TO MOVE WEST INTO CENTRAL
TX THIS MORNING...A SHARP SHEAR AXIS ALOFT OVER THIS AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW
THE FEATURE BREAKING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT SATELLITE LOOPS
SUGGEST THE FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO INCREASE
DAYTIME CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERN COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND...BUT WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TX...WILL LEVEL OFF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

AFTER ANOTHER MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A
RARE MID-SUMMER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. BETWEEN THE FRONT AND OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION MOVING IN
UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MIDDAY HOURS...
WITH HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE...POSSIBLY
MORE...FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGHS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...SMALL HAIL...AND
ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1-2 INCHES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING
TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT[/b]. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...A MORE REALISTIC INTERPRETATION OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION IS THAT OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE TAKEN
OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND A REPOSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD QUICKLY REFOCUS OVER NE TX WHILE SURFACE FOCAL
POINTS WASH OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THE UNSTABLE FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...SO SOME LOW POPS ARE LEFT TO NORTHERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. [b]MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PERIOD WHERE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FEATURE HAS A CHANCE TO INTERACT WITH POOLED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK
AND A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL CONTINUE LEANING ON THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND FAVOR THE MORE MOIST ECMWF OVER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE GFS. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL SHOWN TO RETREAT EASTWARD
ON SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER RESUMING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK."