WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Tropical Storm

#281 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:42 pm

Are traffic cams good enough?

If yes, then here is the link for the Metro Manila Development Authority live traffic cams.

http://mmda.nowplanet.tv/

Of course dont view them now, it will show you just how horrible the morning commute here is hahaha!!! :firedevil:
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Tropical Storm

#282 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:50 pm

ClarkEligue wrote:Are traffic cams good enough?

If yes, then here is the link for the Metro Manila Development Authority live traffic cams.

http://mmda.nowplanet.tv/

Of course dont view them now, it will show you just how horrible the morning commute here is hahaha!!! :firedevil:


Oh boy. :eek: But those are ok as things progress and Rammasun gets closer.
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#283 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Jul 13, 2014 7:35 pm

looks like the LLCC is still on the northern edge of the convection.. still, it looks slightly better than yesterday.. not sure if it'll have enough time to intensify into a typhoon though, then again it happens...

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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Tropical Storm

#284 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 13, 2014 7:36 pm

00z Best Track up to 50kts.

09W RAMMASUN 140714 0000 13.2N 130.9E WPAC 50 985
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Tropical Storm

#285 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 13, 2014 7:45 pm

Slow and steady strengthening now up to 50 knots!

The Philippines is very lucky shear prevented this from intensifying to it's full potential but still metro Manila will feel the brunt of this and flooding will be an issue here.
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#286 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:04 pm

the latest Microwave imagery is very telling as to the current state of this system:

Image

it looks like the system is still tilted with the low-level center located just north of the heavy convection (circled in red). meanwhile, the mid-level center (circled in black) remains strong and is definitely showing improvements with the banding.

[mets, pls. feel free to chime in with this assessment of mine] :)

this is definitely much better than yesterday when the low-level center was displaced as much as 0.5 degrees away from the main convection. it's just a wait-and-see at this point whether the structure can get vertically stacked in the next 12 to 24 hours and deepen enough to reach typhoon status.


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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Tropical Storm

#287 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:22 pm

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 14 July 2014
<Analyses at 14/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°10'(13.2°)
E130°30'(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E127°25'(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°20'(13.3°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E120°55'(120.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 17/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E116°50'(116.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Severe Tropical Storm

#288 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:32 pm

JTWC at 03:00z warning has it as Typhoon before it makes landfall.

Image
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#289 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:41 pm

Look at the center fixes of JMA and JTWC

Holy cow! Fixing the MLC, which totally throws off Dvorak estimates

Basically, their advisories are not worth much
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Severe Tropical Storm

#290 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:15 pm

:D

WDPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
WITH INCREASING OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE BETTER OBSERVED
ORGANIZATION IN MSI WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
INCREASING IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 09W HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AS THE
SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP VERTICALLY WITH DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5 TO 10 KNOTS). TS 09W REMAINS ON A WESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) WILL
PROVIDE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL INTO THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 24. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND, A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 48. AS THE CIRCU-
LATION CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN LUZON INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW, WITH IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CAUSE TS 09W TO START INTENSIFYING BY TAU 72. THE
TRACK WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STR
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CHINA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS RAMMASUN IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA TOWARDS NORTHERN HAINAN
ISLAND, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 108 INTO THE LUICHOW PENINSULA.
WARM SSTS, DECREASED VWS, AND INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 85 KNOTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED BUT IS OTHERWISE TIGHTLY GROUPED. DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS
LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Severe Tropical Storm

#291 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:33 pm

Is it just me that thinks the northern side has a problem? There was deep convection on the N and NW side of the center yesterday but now it looks like confined on the southern parts. That makes me think critical if it did improve at all. :?:
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#292 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:55 pm

:uarrow: it's not as much as the convection as it is the outflow.

there's plenty of convection here. but the upper-level northeasterly winds are impinging on the northeastern quadrant of the system. there's no effective poleward outflow channel (usually through a TUTT or a frontal boundary) at the moment. but lacking a dual-channel outflow isn't necessarily a deal-breaker. the equatorward outflow is very robust and is providing enough of a boost for the recent deepening this morning.

as i said, it all comes down to how the vertical structure of Rammasun will evolve over the next few hours that will determine the eventual landfall intensity. based on the latest trends, me thinks this may make a run at a respectable Cat-1 intensity before landfall tomorrow morning.

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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Severe Tropical Storm

#293 Postby oaba09 » Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:54 pm

Latest from JMA

Image

PAGASA just issued warnings for eastern visayas, southern luzon, and metro manila...If this is a rain maker then we're in trouble.....I remember a couple of weeks ago how easy it flooded despite only having thunderstorms...Our drainage system pretty much is non existent in the capital region...
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Severe Tropical Storm

#294 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Sun Jul 13, 2014 11:28 pm

Rammasun has strengthen fast over the past 24 hours and is looking healthy again...

Image

Synopsis for Western Pacific and other Basins: http://goo.gl/OP2tol


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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Severe Tropical Storm

#295 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:01 am

oaba09 wrote:Latest from JMA

Image

PAGASA just issued warnings for eastern visayas, southern luzon, and metro manila...If this is a rain maker then we're in trouble.....I remember a couple of weeks ago how easy it flooded despite only having thunderstorms...Our drainage system pretty much is non existent in the capital region...


exactly... I'm always visiting the Camanava area esp. Navotas and i've also noticed that.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Severe Tropical Storm

#296 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:31 am

Now our 4th typhoon of the season at 65 knots!

Dvorak numbers from KNES and PGTW also up to 4.0!

09W RAMMASUN 140714 0600 13.0N 129.2E WPAC 65 974
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#297 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:03 am

SGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.3N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.0N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.0N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.4N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.3N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.8N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 128.5E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Severe Tropical Storm

#298 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:03 am

JMA still as STS.

STS 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 14 July 2014
<Analyses at 14/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°40'(12.7°)
E128°40'(128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 14/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°35'(12.6°)
E126°10'(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 15/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°20'(13.3°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00'(15.0°)
E120°25'(120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 17/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°10'(17.2°)
E115°55'(115.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)
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#299 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:05 am

Rammasun is NOW more organized than when I last tracked the storm and may strengthen even more before making landfall over Greater Manila. And yeahh, I got that part (nearly) spot on and I hope the LGUs and residents over the region are preparing...
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Severe Tropical Storm

#300 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:07 am

IMO, it's intensifying rapidly.
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