WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe 75-95 kts 1-min at first Landfall as conditions get more favorable and intensification rate is faster than previously. This is a more organized and more westerly version of Conson 2010.

[phwxenthusiast]

eyewall looking quite healthy on the latest microwave.



I won't be surprised to see this become a high-end Category 2 (1-min), maybe even a Cat-3, before it landfalls tomorrow morning; especially considering JTWC's propensity to have higher wind estimates compared to other agencies.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[euro6208]

eyewall looking quite healthy on the latest microwave.



I won't be surprised to see this become a high-end Category 2 (1-min), maybe even a Cat-3, before it landfalls tomorrow morning; especially considering JTWC's propensity to have higher wind estimates compared to other agencies.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

Wow...last update had this at 65 knots and it is intensifying rapidly. I would be shocked if JTWC doesn't upgrade this to at least a category 2 in the next warning...

[Alyono]

looks like I really busted this time. The llc did relocate under the MLC!

really bad news for Manila as this enhanced structure will bring even more flooding than I was expecting

[euro6208]

Eye just east of Catanduanes Islands...

[euro6208]

looks like I really busted this time. The llc did relocate under the MLC!

really bad news for Manila as this enhanced structure will bring even more flooding than I was expecting

I think you did a great job, i actually believed you at one point lol...

[cycloneye]

I expect JMA to upgrade to Typhoon in next update. Now the situation for Manila and vicinity will be more than plenty of rain so those there should prepare now and stay safe.

[dexterlabio]

looks like I really busted this time. The llc did relocate under the MLC!

really bad news for Manila as this enhanced structure will bring even more flooding than I was expecting

You did a great analysis on this storm when it was a struggling TS... It's just that unexpected things often happen in WPAC. But how can you say that it will bring even more rain at this state? I have this thought that sheared or disorganized cyclones bring in more rain than an organized typhoon...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Alyono did a spot-on assessment during the "wimpy" part of the storm.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Um.... Is it just me, or, STS Rammasun is trying to form an eye on NOAA floaters?


I think it is intensifying fast, and way faster than yesterday. The storm passing S of Manila is a much worse scenario for compared to Rammasun passing N of Manila because the stronger winds are at the Northern quadrant.

[euro6208]

Compared to the previous microwave 9 previous post , eyewall continues to remain well organized and reds trying to wrap around eye...

[euro6208]

12Z best track out...JTWC responds due to well definied microwave eye upps the intensity to 75 knots!

09W RAMMASUN 140714 1200 12.7N 128.2E WPAC 75 967

[wxman57]

Rammasun's eye 6 hours ago at 0630UTC. Likely stronger than a low-end Cat 1 now. Cat 2?

[euro6208]

Rammasun's eye 6 hours ago at 0630UTC. Likely stronger than a low-end Cat 1 now. Cat 2?

Latest at 75 knots, only category 1...

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 14 July 2014
<Analyses at 14/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N12°40'(12.7°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E123°50'(123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E119°40'(119.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 17/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E115°20'(115.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

[somethingfunny]

Rammasun's eye 6 hours ago at 0630UTC. Likely stronger than a low-end Cat 1 now. Cat 2?

And that's what JMA is assessing this as too - 65kt winds sustained for ten minutes and 95kt gusts. Since the NHC's operational "sustained wind" intensities usually only verify in a few transient gusts on land, I'd say these assessments are pretty equal, a high-end Cat1 or low-end Cat2.

Latest at 75 knots, only category 1...

You're using JTWC's 1-minute assessment instead of JMA's 10-minute, right?

[euro6208]

Rammasun's eye 6 hours ago at 0630UTC. Likely stronger than a low-end Cat 1 now. Cat 2?

And that's what JMA is assessing this as too - 65kt winds sustained for ten minutes and 95kt gusts. Since the NHC's operational "sustained wind" intensities usually only verify in a few transient gusts on land, I'd say these assessments are pretty equal, a high-end Cat1 or low-end Cat2.

Latest at 75 knots, only category 1...

You're using JTWC's 1-minute assessment instead of JMA's 10-minute, right?

JTWC's upgrade was right after the eye appeared ...

To your 2nd question, Yes...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive appearance on imagery. Seems like TY Rammasun is exploding.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As of now, parts of Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas are already reporting rainy weather. I wonder how the weather will fare in the next few hours over the region. BTW, How's the weather in Manila right now?

[euro6208]

Waiting for the latest prognostic on Typhoon Rammasun for more info...