West wobble or not?

Chase224 · #1 Postby **Chase224** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:30 pm

there has been a west movement for the last hour or so does this mean we could have a west movement again I think more then likely is a wobble

#2 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:33 pm

It's a wobble...just like there were wobbles to the wsw a couple of days ago. These will become less and less tomorrow.

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:35 pm

It could be a wobble, or a dead movement again.. we shall see... Florida is not gonna be in the clear till it goes past 30 North..

<<<still on pins and needles despite WNW move>>>>

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:36 pm

It is more than likely a wobble

Chase224 · #5 Postby **Chase224** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:36 pm

Airforce-how does a movement have to go for until its not consider a wobble anymore

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:45 pm

To be honest...it depends. If the NHC is forecasting a WNW motion...then usually it only has to go 1 or 2 hours and then it is a true movement...if they are forecasting a westward motion and it is moving north...then it could move that way for 6 hours and they will still call it "overall to the west"

Usually 6-12 hours and then they will take the average. The problem with taking wobbles and making them movements is in intense storms wobbles happens all the time. If you have a top...take a piece of gum and put it on one side a spin the top. It wobbles when it moves. Some with the hurricane. It is an off balance tire..wobbling as it moves.

#7 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:01 pm

Air Force Met wrote:To be honest...it depends. If the NHC is forecasting a WNW motion...then usually it only has to go 1 or 2 hours and then it is a true movement...if they are forecasting a westward motion and it is moving north...then it could move that way for 6 hours and they will still call it "overall to the west"

Funny!

(and agree...)

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:07 pm

Air Force Met wrote:To be honest...it depends. If the NHC is forecasting a WNW motion...then usually it only has to go 1 or 2 hours and then it is a true movement...if they are forecasting a westward motion and it is moving north...then it could move that way for 6 hours and they will still call it "overall to the west"

Usually 6-12 hours and then they will take the average. The problem with taking wobbles and making them movements is in intense storms wobbles happens all the time. If you have a top...take a piece of gum and put it on one side a spin the top. It wobbles when it moves. Some with the hurricane. It is an off balance tire..wobbling as it moves.

Good explaination :wink:

Thanks

#9 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:25 pm

Wobble or not it's currently west right now.

Philly12 · #10 Postby **Philly12** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:35 pm

It may be moving west know but lets face it, it will turn to the wnw to nw eventually. This is the same thing that happened with Fabian until he eventually turned. The G-IV data will true up the models but they have been doing pretty well without it. Just about every model is forecasting the turn. They may not agree on a landfall point but they all agree on a turn. That consensus is too hard to ignore.

#11 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:42 pm

You might want to refresh your loop Stormcenter. I've got a 20-23z loop going at 15 minute intervals with the latest one at 2301z...and it is 285. There is no west motion there. There was a wobble last hour...maybe that was the one pic you saw. You cannot take trochodial motions and call them movements.Go to GHCC and take a 12 image loop of the 1 km IR and you will see that there is no westward motion. Zoom in on medium or high click on the center of the storm in the image.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

#12 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:43 pm

Sorry...bad link...go here instead:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

#13 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:49 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Sorry...bad link...go here instead:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Cloud tops seem to be warming? Going through an eyewall replacement cycle, maybe?

#14 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:53 pm

That and some lower HHP's thanks to Fabian. Tomorrow it should hit some high HHP and SST tomorrow and go through another cycle tomorrow. It will probably hit 5 again if that upper low gets out of the way and doesn't shear it any.

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:32 pm

Air Force Met wrote:That and some lower HHP's thanks to Fabian. Tomorrow it should hit some high HHP and SST tomorrow and go through another cycle tomorrow. It will probably hit 5 again if that upper low gets out of the way and doesn't shear it any.

If Isabel hits CAT 5 status after weakening back (which it's looking quite clear that it has done so), this would match Allen for reaching CAT 5 status three times. The HHP and SST's tomorrow are quite frightening. SST's don't get any cooler for a while after that.

SF

#16 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:40 pm

Stormsfury wrote:If Isabel hits CAT 5 status after weakening back (which it's looking quite clear that it has done so), this would match Allen for reaching CAT 5 status three times. The HHP and SST's tomorrow are quite frightening. SST's don't get any cooler for a while after that.

This is an interesting link as proof (as if you guys needed more proof). I've watched it for a while and it has pretty well predicted both Fabian and Isabel in terms of intensity.

http://grads.iges.org/pix/hurpot.html

West wobble or not?

West wobble or not?

Airforce

Funny

Wobble or not it's west...

Cloud Tops are Warming?

Maximum Potention

Who is online