WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[vrif]

TPPN11 PGTW 150618
A. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN)
B. 15/0532Z
C. 13.0N
D. 124.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/0044Z 12.8N 125.5E MMHS
15/0137Z 12.7N 125.5E MMHS
LONG

[dexterlabio]

I expect a Category 3 typhoon from JTWC in their next warning. JMA might also increase the intensity, the eye has developed really quickly since the previous warnings from agencies...

[ManilaTC]

09W RAMMASUN 140715 0600 13.0N 124.7E WPAC 100 948

100 KTS!!! CATEGORY 3!!!

[vrif]

WTPQ21 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1409 RAMMASUN (1409)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 12.9N 124.7E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 14.9N 121.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 170600UTC 17.5N 116.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 180600UTC 19.1N 111.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[euro6208]

09W RAMMASUN 140715 0600 13.0N 124.7E WPAC 100 948

Wow Category 3 Major typhoon

[euro6208]

Very dangerous Cat 3 about to make landfall.

[euro6208]

ADT showing much stronger, solid 5.9 or 110 knots!

2014JUL15 053200 5.9 952.0 112.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -38.08 -71.75 EYE -99 IR 76.7 12.95 -124.69 COMBO MTSAT2 28.0

[ManilaTC]

Now starting to make landfall in the NE tip of Sorsogon near Gubat town on the way to Legaspi City.

[Filipinas50]

Eyewall of Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) While Approaching the Coastline of Albay Province this Afternoon ...

(Image:PAGASA Virac Doppler Radar Station)

[dhoeze]

Did the track moved more to the south? Eye will pass South of Metro Manila or Cavite Laguna?

[dexterlabio]

Did the track moved more to the south? Eye will pass South of Metro Manila or Cavite Laguna?

If it does move more west than north, then yes. Similar to Xangxane's track in 2006.

[euro6208]

Very impressive but scary discussion.


WDPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATELLITE EYE FIX ON A CLEAR, 20 NM DIAMETER EYE NOW
EVIDENT IN THE MULTISPECTRAL AND 150609Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON CONSISTENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 09W REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND WESTWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 09W IS CLOSING IN ON THE ISLAND OF SORSOGON, PHILIPPINES
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED BASED ON THE CURRENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TREND AND EXPECTATIONS OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN SORSOGON.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE
TYPHOON WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR INDUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING OVER EASTERN CHINA. TYPHOON RAMMASUN WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON AND INTO MANILA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AFTER
REEMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) TO A CONTINUATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WARM SST IN THE SCS PLUS
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR RAPID RE-
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TYPHOON RAMMASUN IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MAKING A SECONDARY LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN HAINAN NEAR TAU 84. IT WILL THEN CROSS THE GULF OF
TONKIN AND MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR HANOI.
LAND INTERACTION WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS WEAKENING; HOWEVER, TY 09W
WILL MAINTAIN A SOLID 90-KNOT TYPHOON INTENSITY BEFORE ITS FINAL
LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING CAUSED BY LAND INTERACTION
IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

5.9 950.0 112.4 5.9 6.5 6.6 1.7T/6hr

Massive increase Adj and Ini up to 6.5 and 6.6!

[jaguarjace]

Close-up floater.

[euro6208]

It's moving to the west northwest which would likely place the eye much longer over water. Category 4 shouldn't be ruled out yet.

[ManilaTC]

Just saw a tweet saying James Reynolds made it to Legaspi City, and that area is now 2-3 hours away from the right front eyewall.

Radar image from Virac shows eye clipping NE of Sorsogon Peninsula near Gubat town

[ejeraldmc]

[dexterlabio]

I was arguing with a weather page owner because the person kept saying that it will weaken to a Cat1 at landfall and won't be a "Xangxane". Well Rammasun just did... It looks like we will have a strong Cat4 typhoon inland...


TPPN11 PGTW 150912

A. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN)

B. 15/0832Z

C. 13.0N

D. 124.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS 5.5, PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO PT DUE TO
CONSTRAINTS WITH DT (CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 6 HOURS).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/0344Z 12.8N 124.8E AMS2
15/0409Z 12.8N 125.0E TRMM
15/0426Z 12.8N 124.9E GPMI


LONG

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 15 July 2014

<Analyses at 15/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N13°05'(13.1°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow. Rammasun really reminds me of Xangsane 2006 when it was at a nearly similar position and intensified this fast.

BTW classes in some private schools and ALL public schools in Cebu were suspended at noon time because of the effects Rammasun brought to us here.