WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#381 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:20 am

This typhoon looks eerily similar to Typhoon Xangsane of 2006.

weird...
Last edited by mrbagyo on Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#382 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:37 am

It's on and off rain earlier, but now it is very windy, cool and cloudy.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#383 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:44 am

Eye now over Albay, making its way to Camarines Sur. Eye shows no sign of filling.

Image

I shiver at the thought of what we will face later tonight on to the morning hours later.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#384 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:46 am

Are there big mountains in the track is taking?
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#385 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:48 am

Xangsane 2006 / Rammasun 2014
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#386 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:50 am

remember Arthur? The actual winds lagged Dvorak estimates.

Probably not yet cat 4. More like a borderline 2/3 at landfall
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#387 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:50 am

cycloneye wrote:Are there big mountains in the track is taking?

Not really, and that is why the weakening is expected to be less significant than of Rammasun passing over Sierra Madre Luzon, which is far north. However, there is only a major volcano or Mount Mayon.
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#388 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:52 am

It is now expected by the official agency (PAGASA) that there may be 10-min gusts exceeding 85 kts and according to the JMA, gusts of up to 120 kts 10-min!
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#389 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:59 am

Again PAGASA is underestimating Glenda like Milenyo (Xangsane) in 2006.
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#390 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:03 am

They still have a chance to increase the intensity by their 11pm update.
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#391 Postby oaba09 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:04 am

^to be fair to pagasa, they did mention that this typhoon is xangsane like so that should at least serve as a warning for people who experienced xangsane.


All my mobile gadgets are fully charged, I have batteries prepared, I have my transistor radio, emergency lights are fully charged, bought a lot of purified water and ready to eat food earlier....Oh yeah, I also have a mobile wifi device so that I could still get info from the web when the electricity gets knocked down...
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#392 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:07 am

Solid typhoon....

6.0 from PGTW and KNES now...

Category 4 anyone?
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#393 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:10 am

Image

eye continues to move inland with very cold cloud tops developing...
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:21 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:

#394 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:11 am

oaba09 wrote:^to be fair to pagasa, they did mention that this typhoon is xangsane like so that should at least serve as a warning for people who experienced xangsane.


All my mobile gadgets are fully charged, I have batteries prepared, I have my transistor radio, emergency lights are fully charged, bought a lot of purified water and ready to eat food earlier....Oh yeah, I also have a mobile wifi device so that I could still get info from the web when the electricity gets knocked down...



Yeah it's better to get prepped up for the worst...this one will be the strongest typhoon to hit Manila since Xangxane...
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#395 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:21 am

Image


This was the last fix before landfall...

2014JUL15 090100 6.5 937.2 127.0 6.5 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 5.78 -75.39 EYE 22 IR 88.4 13.22 -123.99 COMBO MTSAT2 28.8

Supports Category 4 strength and slightly stronger than maue's up to 125 knots!
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#396 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:27 am

Legazpi City bottomed out at 961hPa as the eye came ashore. Couldn't find any strong wind reports out of the region, just yet, though.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#397 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:32 am

euro6208 wrote:Solid typhoon....

6.0 from PGTW and KNES now...

Category 4 anyone?


again, the winds likely are lagging.

Did you not follow Arthur? Had a cat 3 Dvorak estimate, yet only had cat 1 winds at that time
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Re:

#398 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:32 am

phwxenthusiast wrote:Legazpi City bottomed out at 961hPa as the eye came ashore. Couldn't find any strong wind reports out of the region, just yet, though.


961mb... not even close to the overhyping going on that this may be cat 4
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#399 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:34 am

Alyono wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Solid typhoon....

6.0 from PGTW and KNES now...

Category 4 anyone?


again, the winds likely are lagging.

Did you not follow Arthur? Had a cat 3 Dvorak estimate, yet only had cat 1 winds at that time


Yes i did but Rammasun had something Arthur didn't have and that is a clear well definied eye...This was rapidly intensfying right up to landfall...
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#400 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:35 am

Expected time of arrival in Manila is about noon time... that's another similarity with Xangsane.
Bicol peninsula was never good at breaking typhoons. Remember typhoon Nina and Angela? both stayed at cat 5 strength even being over land for quite some time... If you search the MIMIC imagery loop of Xangsane, you'll better understand what I mean.
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