Texas Winter 2014-2015

[ravyrn]

Wahoo! What a winter 2013-2014 was! Lots of cold, lots of ice, and some of the white stuff for parts of ETX. Now it's time to set our eyes on the upcoming winter! Hopefully we can manage the right combination of cold/moisture to kick off this upcoming and make its start a December to remember! We even managed to turn the Heat Miser away from the dark side for a period this past winter! Let's see what wintry mischief we can whip up in about 8 months!

[orangeblood]

Wahoo! What a winter 2013-2014 was! Lots of cold, lots of ice, and some of the white stuff for parts of ETX. Now it's time to set our eyes on the upcoming winter! Hopefully we can manage the right combination of cold/moisture to kick off this upcoming and make its start a December to remember! We even managed to turn the Heat Miser away from the dark side for a period this past winter! Let's see what wintry mischief we can whip up in about 8 months!

Signals continue to point towards a very cold/above average precip winter across the southern US. It appears we might get an El Nino this time around, the one ingredient that was missing last winter!! Some of the best Texas winter analogs continue to pop up...2009/10, 76-77, 65-66

[cycloneye]

If next winter for Texas is like it seems with El Nino helping things,this thread may break the 501 page record of the Texas Winter 2013-2014 thread.

[wxman57]

My initial thinking is that next winter will be a particularly warm one across Texas. Probably nothing close to freezing and no ice storms anywhere in the state. Sounds like a dream winter to me.

[Tireman4]

My initial thinking is that next winter will be a particularly warm one across Texas. Probably nothing close to freezing and no ice storms anywhere in the state. Sounds like a dream winter to me.

Ha. Wrong. LOL.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

“Oh, my sweet summer child," SaskatchewanScreamer said quietly, "what do you know of fear?
Fear is for the winter, my little Texans, when the snows fall a hundred feet
deep and the ice wind comes howling out of the north. Fear is for the long
night, when the sun hides its face for years at a time, and little children
are born and live and die all in darkness while the direwolves grow gaunt and
hungry, and the white walkers move through the woods”

“When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives.”

“Nothing burns like the cold.”

Remember the above when you dare to voice your wishes aloud..... for the time of darkness and cold will be just taking a short holiday this year. His power is great now and is only growing. Winterfell will be spared but.......

“The things we love destroy us every time, lad. Remember that.”

The Games will begin soon enough.

[ravyrn]

We need a winter storm to travel across CTX next winter, so South Texas Storms and Porta can get some of the white. I wouldn't mind some in my neck of the woods either, though we did get a dusting this past winter. I'm still shocked that the real winner this past winter was the Toledo Bend area. They got over 6" of snow in some areas.

[Texas Snowman]

Wow! Tweet from Joe Bastardi today, his thoughts on NEXT winter. He tweeted it, so can we put it up here?

Wasn't sure, so I just put a URL hotlink to the photo.

-----

@BigJoeBastardi · 3h
http://Weatherbell.com has this out for clients since mid April, outlining ideas of winter similar to 02-03/09-10

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BmftahfCEAA5JSK.jpg:large

[Texas Snowman]

And then there's this tweet:

"‏@BigJoeBastardi · I outlined in Sept 2011 series of 3 potentially harsh winters.12-13,13-14,14-15 . Modiki winters like we have next winter usually cold,snowy."

[gpsnowman]

Well color me excited about next winter. LONG way off though. Mucho heat to get through before September cool fronts refresh us all.
Kudos the all the folks in the Texas Spring thread keeping us informed!!!

[Ntxw]

Looking forward to some of this. We'll have to fine tune to see where the Aleutian low ends up setting shop. If there is ridging in the NE Pac that will help get some cold air into Canada, if it sits in the GOA then we'll see a warmer in the source region.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Winter 2014-2015 will probably be like 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998.

[Texas Snowman]

Ok boys and girls, after today, we're half-way through the year and on the downhill slide towards Wxman57's favorite time of the year, fall and winter!!!

Give this Texas summer a couple of more months, then let the fun and games begin!!!

[Sambucol]

Ok boys and girls, after today, we're half-way through the year and on the downhill slide towards Wxman57's favorite time of the year, fall and winter!!!

Give this Texas summer a couple of more months, then let the fun and games begin!!!

I agree!!!

[Portastorm]

Here's a little fun reading fodder for y'all:

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/06/preliminary-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Read from the HGX twitter account that the top 2 latest dates we cracked 95 degrees were 1898 and 1899.....Im not saying it will be, but im just saying.....

[vbhoutex]

Read from the HGX twitter account that the top 2 latest dates we cracked 95 degrees were 1898 and 1899.....Im not saying it will be, but im just saying.....

I saw that too. Yes, the thought did cross my mind. Dare we even think like that?

[Tireman4]

Read from the HGX twitter account that the top 2 latest dates we cracked 95 degrees were 1898 and 1899.....Im not saying it will be, but im just saying.....

I saw that too. Yes, the thought did cross my mind. Dare we even think like that?

Make sure that Champ is tuned up...

[Portastorm]

Champ the Charger, the PWC's winter storm chasemobile, will be tuned up this fall and in fully operational mode by the middle of November!

[Ntxw]

Being that winter is only 5 more months away, I'm sure others here are anxious to know what to look for the next few months that could give us the slightest inkling of what may be. For today, I'm going to start with the EPO or East Pacific Oscillation.

Last winter we were privileged to witness this oscillation at it's best. Ignored for years we finally came into conclusion that it has a tremendous influence. Back in October and November we saw the signs of this signal telling us what it would do the whole winter even at the face of a strong +AO/NAO and unfavorable PNA. For years we have come to think the AO releases cold air and used to far too deeply on determining outbreaks. While this is a good start it does not always direct it towards our neck of the woods (Texas) for this you need the -EPO. Without it the -NAO that usually accompanies -AO (the two are closely related) will flush it across to Europe and Asia while the Pacific sends in mild air.

Here are some examples for two decades that were very different from other, AO/NAO that are not too much of influence long scale but the EPO has glaring differences.

1980s were a very cold decade dominated by anomalous -EPO



1990s were a much warmer decade with predominately +EPO




______________________________

And then even on a seasonal scale the differences are drastic
Winter of 2011/12's +EPO dominance


Last winter -EPO dominance


As the days grow shorter, I'm sure all of us will be keeping a close eye on the Pacific Ocean and what it may do, McFarland gave us a good standard to this oscillation but more is needed to understand it, most severe Arctic outbreaks in Texas can be traced back to the EPO. One eye will be on the tropical Pacific for El Nino the other on the North Pacific for blocking. Of course unless you are a certain met heat miser from Houston.