Texas Summer - 2014

[somethingfunny]

Some decent little storms moving into the Metroplex.

Aggghhh!!!!

I just got totally bypassed by the slimmest of margins.

[TheProfessor]

Some decent little storms moving into the Metroplex.

[/quote]

Aggghhh!!!! I just got totally bypassed by the slimmest of margins.

[/quote]







Wow, That just shows you how isolated the storms were, I was blessed to get hit twice today, dropped my temps into the 70s.

[TheProfessor]

Getting my third shower now, this one is a lot lighter than the other 2, but every drop counts.

[Ptarmigan]

2011 should be considered profanity . I can promise nothing like that will happen this year. We were all amidst long streaks of 100 as dhweather said with a putrid winter to boot. Nightmare still haunts...

Summer 2011 is an anomaly. That type of summer is 1 in 10,000 chance it will happen.

[Ptarmigan]

How can one not like 1-2 inches in what is the driest, hottest month of the year? I understand the negativity towards forecasts but considering what it should be then better count those blessings rather than not. It could be hot, humid, and huge evaporation.

Yeah, we should be very thankful for whatever we can get during the summer (or anytime of the year for that matter). Any MCS moving through the state can bring several inches of rain to widespread areas. Hopefully we see several of them throughout this week.

Reason why I do not put a lot of stock in weather forecast models. I like to use many as possible.

[Ntxw]

2011 should be considered profanity . I can promise nothing like that will happen this year. We were all amidst long streaks of 100 as dhweather said with a putrid winter to boot. Nightmare still haunts...

Summer 2011 is an anomaly. That type of summer is 1 in 10,000 chance it will happen.

I agree it's a very extreme anomaly along with 1980. 2011 was also likely propelled by the strong La Nina of 2010-2011, and was followed by another La Nina. I think any speak of La Nina summers (or thereafter) as eventually Nina's perpetuate drought and either during or the year after will feature a very hot and dry will scare some people. Luckily no signs of one anytime soon. Also PDO has background influence as well, hot summers come in bunches during -PDO while +PDO can even dampen Nina influences.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Ongoing activity this morning across our northern counties ahead of a pre-frontal trough over N TX.

Fairly active few days for the region as a frontal boundary sags southward and stalls and several upper level disturbances move across the state in the NW flow aloft. Periods of thunderstorms will be likely each day especially late Thursday into Friday.

Radar shows a band/cluster of thunderstorms from western Louisiana to east of College Station slowly moving southward this morning. Storms appear to be weakening slightly and this trend should continue this morning. Moisture has increased over the region with PWS running 1.8-2.0 inches and this is plenty of moisture to get things going with heating today. Trigger temperatures in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s combined with the inland moving seabreeze and southward moving outflow boundaries from the current activity will set the stage for a fairly active afternoon. Main threats will be frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall.

Frontal boundary stalls across central TX into SW LA on Wednesday with additional storms likely to develop during the afternoon hours as the air mass remains unstable and moist. Think the best concentration will be from College Station to Houston to High Island or closest to the stalling frontal zone. Once again heavy rainfall will be the main threat.

Thursday-Friday:
A powerful short wave over the NW US will drive SE and arrive into TX late Thursday. In almost a spring like pattern a low level jet develops and surges sustained moisture into the region while strong lift overspreads the region from NW to SE late Thursday night into Friday. Model solutions a pointing toward a large MCS developing over NW TX late Thursday afternoon and spreading across much of central and SE TX overnight into Friday. Moisture values surge to 2.0-2.2 in of PW suggesting an excessive rainfall threat with any slow moving or training storms. Severe threat will also be enhanced with any local bowing line segments producing wind damage.

Overall pattern for the next several days will be highly meso scale driven with each thunderstorm cell producing new nearby cells on its outflow boundaries…much like the last few days. Best rain chances will be dependent on where boundaries collide or set up and this is impossible to determine much more than a few hours in advance, but will have a significant impact on convective coverage each day. Synoptic scale lift Thursday night into Friday supports more widespread coverage and less dependence on meso boundaries.

Best rainfall amounts through the period will be NE of a line from College Station to High Island with lesser amounts around Matagorda Bay.

[dhweather]

Some decent little storms moving into the Metroplex.

Aggghhh!!!!

I just got totally bypassed by the slimmest of margins.



I feel your pain. I recorded a whopping 0.01 yesterday. Thunder, lightning, rain all around, just not at my house.

[South Texas Storms]

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across central Texas. Heavy rain is possible as these storms continue to develop and move slowly south throughout this afternoon.

[Portastorm]

Some decent little storms moving into the Metroplex.

Aggghhh!!!!

I just got totally bypassed by the slimmest of margins.



I feel your pain. I recorded a whopping 0.01 yesterday. Thunder, lightning, rain all around, just not at my house.

I'm with ya buddy. Line of showers/storms right before lunchtime today completely fizzled out as they moved into Travis County. We (Austin metro) got jack-squat.

[somethingfunny]

IT IS SO NICE OUTSIDE!!!!!

[aggiecutter]

12z GFS still targets the Red River Valley as having the heaviest rainfall totals over the next 5 days:

[dhweather]

The 12Z Euro isn't much different, looking like Texarkana is the bullseye for heavy rain. I have a sickening feeling the metroplex will largely miss out on precip. Maybe 1" , but 80-100 miles to the north gets 4-5"

[Janie2006]

Fascinating. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across a large swath of territory, from Denton (54*F) into middle Tennessee (~56*F) and beyond. North of that "boundary" they are even lower.....Branson and points north are recording dewpoints in the 40s.

[Ntxw]

The 12Z Euro isn't much different, looking like Texarkana is the bullseye for heavy rain. I have a sickening feeling the metroplex will largely miss out on precip. Maybe 1" , but 80-100 miles to the north gets 4-5"

I'm going to respectfully disagree. I think the models are not handling the movement of the shortwave as well as moisture content well. PWATS are highest south of the Red River and central/SE Texas. If this were winter, I would agree, hence some divergence of ENS where you follow lift over rich moisture. It is where the richest moisture meets the forcing that greatest precipitation rates will occur this time of year. While the Red River Valley will have the widest coverage they do not have the rich moisture content, some of the heftier total locales will be to the south in training storms, get lucky if you will.



Regardless the water sheds will benefit greatly from the MCS coming from N to S/SE

[Ntxw]

NWS FW basically summed up what I just posted nicely in a compact paragraph

"QPF IN A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS A TOUGH FORECAST...BUT WE ARE
STILL ADVERTISING THE POSSIBILITY OF OVER 3-4 INCHES IN NORTHEAST
COUNTIES TAPERING DOWN TO ABOUT AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
SHOULD THE TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES CHANGE NORTH OR SOUTH...QPF
WILL HAVE TO CHANGE WITH IT AS WELL. ACTUAL QPF ALWAYS APPEARS
MUCH MORE STREAKY AND VARIABLE THAN WHAT WE FORECAST."

[Tireman4]

IT IS SO NICE OUTSIDE!!!!!

And you gotta rub it in. Gee whiz sir.

[somethingfunny]

IT IS SO NICE OUTSIDE!!!!!

And you gotta rub it in. Gee whiz sir.

Well, you got rain so....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Earlier today at around 1PM, i went running at Memorial and it was 84F with no rain. Some light showers in the area but not falling. I dont this has ever happened before. Cooler temps made me feel like a champ while i was running.


I have to give JB credit, looks like he is calling this modiki el nino spot on after even i thought he was nuts. He says this winter will be brutal as well. I agree. I think with the warm pool still there, or if it hangs around that this one will be almost as bad as last but with more precip. It sounds like a dream scenario but i dont see why not. With more moisture to overrun the cold temps at the surface why not.

This also brings something else to my mind, last year we had numerous shallow cold air events setting up mostly ice events. What has to happen in the atmosphere for the cold air to not be so deep. I know that dense cold air sinks but we had some major shots of cold air but they would still only bring us ice events.

Hoping the SE Tx crew can get a true winter event this year instead of the teasing we had last year

[srainhoutx]

Hoping the SE Tx crew can get a true winter event this year instead of the teasing we had last year

I would call an inch of freezing rain with trees and power lines falling across the W /NW/N and NE Harris County in early last March a tease, but that's just me...