WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

We have invested too much on Rammasun that we didn't notice this one.


93W INVEST 15kts-1010mb

9.1N 142.2E

[^tamago^]

Yes, it started showing on GEM as a high-energy typhoon hitting Taiwan within a week. That's fast and furious!

[euro6208]

LOW Chance

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1N 142.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH FLARING AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 140331Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
BUILDING CONVECTION WHILE THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS POOR.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

93W INVEST 140714 1200 9.8N 139.9E WPAC 15 1010

not much change

Center lies in an area of rapidly weakening convection...no development likely...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This might be sucked up by much stronger TY RAMMASUN.

[euro6208]

Kinda missed this but NWS Guam mentioned this earlier...

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 140429
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
229 PM CHST MON JUL 14 2014

PMZ171-150100-
YAP-
229 PM CHST MON JUL 14 2014

...SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR YAP STATE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP
NEAR 10N141E IS TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF YAP STATE. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 12N AND
7N FROM 138E TO 145E. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY
WEST TOWARD YAP.

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AT MANY
LOCATIONS OF YAP STATE TONIGHT AND PROBABLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SOME ISLANDS AND ATOLLS ARE AT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. THESE INCLUDE YAP...ULITHI...FAIS AND
NGULU.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT
IN THE YAP STATE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE LOCALLY ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS. ALSO...THE COMBINED SEAS
COULD BUILD INTO THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET LATER THIS WEEK.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 150011
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1011 AM CHST TUE JUL 15 2014

PMZ171-160100-
YAP-
1011 AM CHST TUE JUL 15 2014

...MORE SHOWERY WEATHER FOR PARTS OF YAP STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP
NEAR 10N139E IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF YAP STATE. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 13N AND
9N FROM 137E TO 141E. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS YAP STATE.

SLOW-MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AT SOME
LOCATIONS OF YAP STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ISLANDS AND ATOLLS
COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCATIONS MOST AT RISK INCLUDE
YAP...ULITHI...AND FAIS.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT IN
THE YAP STATE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
CAUSE LOCALLY ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD INTO
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 6 FEET LATER THIS WEEK.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

Cyclonic turning evident with increased banding...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
142.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A BROAD AND POORLY DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 150045 ASCAT PASS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK (10 TO 15 KNOTS) WINDS AND NO LLCC WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

06Z actually developing this into future Typhoon Matmo that skirts luzon and makes landfall over taiwan. Notice how tightly wrapped and small this is that no pressure is given!

[euro6208]

In a very favorable environment. It is linked up to a TUTT cell currently over the Marianas thus enhancing outflow. It has that look already of a monster typhoon in the making and well defined cyclonic turning is there...Wind shear and dry air shouldn't be a problem...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If this hits Luzon, it would be bad and I hope it will not as the region is still recovering from Category 3 typhoon Rammasun which battered the south and central parts and also notably, Metro Manila.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Upgraded to medium by the JTWC because of very favorable conditions and a sudden burst of convection and organization.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 161130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 138.0E TO 12.2N 132.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
137.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 160650Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH SOME SLIGHT EAST-WEST ELONGATION
WHILE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171130Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 161044
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
844 PM CHST WED JUL 16 2014

PMZ161-171-170100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
844 PM CHST WED JUL 16 2014

...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF YAP SLOWLY MOVING
WEST...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES
NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 280 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR NEAR
11N136E. THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED MONSOON TAIL TO THE
SOUTH IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. HEAVIEST SHOWERS
ARE FOUND SOUTH AND WEST OF YAP AND OVER PALAU. LATEST SATELLITE
ANIMATION SHOWS SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING AT YAP...BUT AN ACTIVE
MONSOON BAND SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE IS TRAINING OVER PALAU.

SLOW-MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
KAYANGEL...BABELDAOB AND KOROR TONIGHT. OVER PALAU...1 TO 2 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE MONSOON SURGE PERSISTS.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN HEAVIER
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...OR UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE PULLS
THE MONSOON TAIL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT IN YAP STATE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU IN THE
SOUTHERN ISLANDS AND ALONG THE WESTERN REEF. COMBINED SEAS
WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET OVERNIGHT GENERATING
HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG THESE COASTS. AT YAP...COMBINED SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE RANGE OF 6 TO 7 FEET BY THURSDAY.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

$$

M. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 161214

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF PALAU)

B. 16/1132Z

C. 10.2N

D. 135.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AGREES; MET WAS N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0650Z 10.0N 137.1E MMHS


LONG


TXPQ29 KNES 160951
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 16/0832Z

C. 10.3N

D. 136.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON 0.3 BROKEN BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND
PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[wxman57]

Upgraded to a TD by JMA:

<Analyses at 16/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity - TD
Center position N9°55'(9.9°) E136°05'(136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 17/15 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10'(10.2°) E134°40'(134.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

Likely would see our 10th tropical cyclone later on today as KNES is now reporting 1.5 or 25 knots on par with PGTW...

[euro6208]

93W INVEST 140717 0000 10.4N 135.7E WPAC 20 1005

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 170046
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1046 AM CHST THU JUL 17 2014

PMZ161-171-180100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1046 AM CHST THU JUL 17 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTH OF KOROR...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 220 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 225 MILES NORTH OF KOROR NEAR 10.5 DEGREES
NORTH AND 135.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MONSOON SURGE TO THE SOUTH ARE PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU. HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE FOUND SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF YAP AND OVER
PALAU. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST.

PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED. WEST
WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 MPH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR YAP...ANOTHER
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...MAINLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES AS WELL AS
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO
8 FEET WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG WEST FACING COASTS IN BOTH
PALAU AND YAP THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[dhoeze]

TPPN12 PGTW 161214

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF PALAU)

B. 16/1132Z

C. 10.2N

D. 135.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AGREES; MET WAS N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0650Z 10.0N 137.1E MMHS


LONG


TXPQ29 KNES 160951
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 16/0832Z

C. 10.3N

D. 136.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON 0.3 BROKEN BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND
PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

Another Metro Manila crossing???

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 161214

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF PALAU)

B. 16/1132Z

C. 10.2N

D. 135.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AGREES; MET WAS N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0650Z 10.0N 137.1E MMHS


LONG


TXPQ29 KNES 160951
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 16/0832Z

C. 10.3N

D. 136.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON 0.3 BROKEN BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND
PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

Another Metro Manila crossing???

Not quite. It is expected to head to the Northwest into the vicinity of Okinawa...