CPAC: WALI - Post-Tropical

#21 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:40 pm

1. An area of low pressure located about 1140 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is now in the central Pacific basin and is expected to move westward today at 10 to 15 mph. Shower activity associated with the low remains disorganized, but environmental conditions are conducive for some gradual development of this system today and on Thursday. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent

supercane4867 · #22 Postby **supercane4867** » Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:58 pm

Renumbered as 90C

CP, 90, 2014071618, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1403W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 90, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

hurricanes1234 · #23 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:31 pm

Still not any better organized, and is heading into unfavourable conditions soon. These are the reasons why I personally see this invest busting.

#24 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:33 pm

Edit: I posted this in the wrong thread.

#25 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:16 pm

The title sent me for a loop. EPAC with a C...

euro6208 · #26 Postby **euro6208** » Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:18 pm

JonathanBelles wrote:The title sent me for a loop. EPAC with a C...

#27 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:46 am

Appears to be a CDO development or something of that sort, near the COC.

I'd raise the odds. Definitely has gotten it together.

#28 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:53 am

Maintaining deep convection:

#29 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:16 am

Really has improved... Any ASCAT passes?

#30 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:59 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 17 2014

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of low pressure located about 1065 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has been moving west at 10 mph. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance has persisted to the east and northeast of the circulation center for the past six hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for limited development of the system through today. After that, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

#31 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:45 am

I swear this is almost a TD.

#32 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:36 am

Kingarabian wrote:Really has improved... Any ASCAT passes?

You tell me

#33 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:36 am

Up to 80%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
500 AM HST THU JUL 17 2014

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has been moving west northwest at less than 10 mph. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance has become better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression may be forming. Advisories may be initiated later today for this system if current trends continue. After 24 to 36 hours, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Saturday morning.

#34 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:41 am

Yay! Looks like we can finish off this CPAC list we've been on since 2002.

supercane4867 · #35 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:20 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 140.7W TO 15.2N 145.9W WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 171131Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 141.5W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.

euro6208 · #36 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:24 pm

Hawaii threat?

Not sure if this is the same system but GFS is showing a hurricane entering the WPAC at a fairly low latitude but then moves it more poleward to near wake island...

#37 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:02 pm

Say hello to TD One-C

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 11 am HST on newly formed tropical depression One-C, located about 1300 miles east southeast of Honolulu.

#38 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:06 pm

euro6208 wrote:Hawaii threat?

Not sure if this is the same system but GFS is showing a hurricane entering the WPAC at a fairly low latitude but then moves it more poleward to near wake island...

Should pass a bit south of the island.

weathernerdguy · #39 Postby **weathernerdguy** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:13 pm

well, i guess it went over a anticyclone..

#40 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:31 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:well, i guess it went over a anticyclone..

Huh? How can a system go "over" an anticyclone?

CPAC: WALI - Post-Tropical

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