CPAC: WALI - Post-Tropical

[weathernerdguy]

Oh really?

NHC skips 55, 95, 130, and 170 mph.

I've seen 130 mph hurricanes before......

[hurricanes1234]

Of course it fails to intensify. I guess we see 40 knots at the next advisory, right?

[wxman57]

Oh really?

NHC skips 55, 95, 130, and 170 mph.

I've seen 130 mph hurricanes before......

Right, 130 mph equates to 115 kts (132.25 mph which rounds down to 130 mph). NHC, CPHC, JTWC identify max sustained wind in knots in 5 knot increments. That wind speed is converted to mph for some public statements. It's not possible to have a 55 or 95 mph storm because no value in knots (5 kt increments) converts to 55 or 95 mph. 45 kts = 50 mph and 50 kts = 60 mph, and 80 kts = 90 mph while 85 kts = 95 mph. Similar for a few higher wind speeds.

By the way, Wali looks like it may have already reached its peak intensity and is starting to weaken.

[Kingarabian]

Right, 130 mph equates to 115 kts (132.25 mph which rounds down to 130 mph). NHC, CPHC, JTWC identify max sustained wind in knots in 5 knot increments. That wind speed is converted to mph for some public statements. It's not possible to have a 55 or 95 mph storm because no value in knots (5 kt increments) converts to 55 or 95 mph. 45 kts = 50 mph and 50 kts = 60 mph, and 80 kts = 90 mph while 85 kts = 95 mph. Similar for a few higher wind speeds.


By the way, Wali looks like it may have already reached its peak intensity and is starting to weaken.

Thank you for your thorough explanation. I guess it's better to just use Knots to avoid making mistakes.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 181445
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012014
500 AM HST FRI JUL 18 2014

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WALI/S CIRCULATION...THE LLCC IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A BALL OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHRINKING AND ELONGATING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 2.0 TO 2.5...AND WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING A
DEGRADED SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...325/10 KT...AS WALI IS
BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO IT/S NORTHEAST...
AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ITERATION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.

WITH THE CYCLONE ALREADY FEELING THE ILL EFFECTS OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THE WINDOW FOR WALI TO INTENSIFY HAS CLOSED.
LATEST ANALYSES FROM UW/CIMSS SHOW SHEAR VALUES INCREASING FROM NEAR
10 KT TO 50 KT ALONG THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TRACK...WHICH WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS BY DAY 3. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED...AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.8N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.8N 143.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 17.0N 144.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 18.0N 146.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[Kingarabian]

Shear is about to win again as usual.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear is about to win again as usual.

Looks like the Great Hawaiian Shear took over.

[hurricanes1234]

Congratulations, Wali, you've just added to our growing list of consecutive weak/pathetic storms! Because of you, we're now at 4 in a row!

[Yellow Evan]

Congratulations, Wali, you've just added to our growing list of consecutive weak/pathetic storms! Because of you, we're now at 4 in a row!

What was so pathetic about Douglas? It lasted longer than expected.

To be honest, El Nino years have its own share of weak systems.

[wxman57]

Shear is about to win again as usual.

Looks like the Great Hawaiian Shear took over.

Yes, appears to be a remnant low now. Bye, Wali!

[Kingarabian]

This shear for the past two decades has protected Hawaii incredibly. It's nearly impossible for any storm that is coming from the eastern pacific to make it alive.

i wonder why that is? Because in order for a storm coming from the east to make it to Hawaii, it needs to go north west, which means you need a trough to create a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge. but that very own trough creates a lot of shear in return.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Cyclenall]

I had no idea Wali was on the table, found out just as it is being sheared apart. Why does the title of this thread say Epac?

:uarrow: The season is starting to frustrate me a little

At the end of last year I decided not to waste my anger and energy this season, looks like I missed nothing and its already paying dividends.

Congratulations, Wali, you've just added to our growing list of consecutive weak/pathetic storms! Because of you, we're now at 4 in a row!

Looks like you got the pessimistic bug that more will be getting as the season wears on, by the end of the hurricane season everyone will be "sick" with it.

[Yellow Evan]

This shear for the past two decades has protected Hawaii incredibly. It's nearly impossible for any storm that is coming from the eastern pacific to make it alive.

i wonder why that is? Because in order for a storm coming from the east to make it to Hawaii, it needs to go north west, which means you need a trough to create a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge. but that very own trough creates a lot of shear in return.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

I have no clue why it is. Maybe it has to do with it being so close to the subtropical ridge?

Also, one underrated factor is the topography IMO. It seems to send any LLC to tries to hit the islands from the west either north (Flossie 13) or south (Flossie 07, Jimena 03)

[Yellow Evan]

I had no idea Wali was on the table, found out just as it is being sheared apart. Why does the title of this thread say Epac?

:uarrow: The season is starting to frustrate me a little

At the end of last year I decided not to waste my anger and energy this season, looks like I missed nothing and its already paying dividends.

Well, it is an El Nino year.

And Amanda and Cristina elevated my hopes up a bit. Since then we've had 4 weak TS's.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 182115
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012014
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 18 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWED THE CENTER OF WALI CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
WOULD HAVE BEEN EXPECTED BASED ON THE OVERNIGHT POSITIONS. BASED ON
THE RECENT DATA...I SUSPECT THAT POSITIONS ON SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT
SATELLITE FIXES AND ON OUR BULLETINS MAY HAVE BEEN MISPLACED DUE TO
THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER. I UPDATED THE 18/0600 UTC
AND 18/1200 UTC POSITIONS BASED ON RE-ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT TRACK. POSITIONS FROM
THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH AND CPHC THIS MORNING WERE QUITE CLOSE
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.0 AND 2.5 RESPECTIVELY.
RECENT IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS THREE VORTICES... THE ONE ASSOCIATED
WITH WALI PLUS ONE ABOUT 450 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
ABOUT 450 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. THAT THERE ARE TWO OTHER VORTICES
SO CLOSE TO WALI IS AN INDICATION WALI IS A WEAK...MORIBUND SYSTEM.

I HAVE DOWNGRADED WALI TO A DEPRESSION BASED ON THE VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. THE TRACK CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 13 MPH...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS MOVEMENT...BUT WITH
THE TRACK SHIFTED NORTHWEST FROM OUR PREVIOUS TRACK. WALI IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AND
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. I ANTICIPATE THE REMNANT OF WALI TO
BECOME PART OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETINS ON WALI
BEFORE THE REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM REACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE WILL LIKELY NOT CONTAIN
ANY STRONG WINDS...IT STILL POSES A RAINFALL THREAT. PLEASE SEE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 16.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 17.1N 145.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Yellow Evan]

Wali pretty much done.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 190230
TCDCP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012014
500 PM HST FRI JUL 18 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL LOW CLOUD VORTEX MARKING ALL
THAT REMAINS OF WALI. CPHC AND SAB WERE UNABLE TO ANALYZE DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
WALI HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT OF WALI CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH. AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
MOVES NORTHWEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE DUE
TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. REDEVELOPMENT IS QUITE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH
THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE WILL LIKELY NOT CONTAIN ANY
STRONG WINDS...IT STILL POSES A RAINFALL THREAT. PLEASE SEE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THIS IS THE LAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO
HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.3N 146.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 20/0000Z 18.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
DONALDSON

[hurricanes1234]

Congratulations, Wali, you've just added to our growing list of consecutive weak/pathetic storms! Because of you, we're now at 4 in a row!

What was so pathetic about Douglas? It lasted longer than expected.

To be honest, El Nino years have its own share of weak systems.

To me, Douglas fell into the weak category which I mentioned first but it wasn't pathetic because of its duration.

As for Wali, all I have to say is: goodbye ...

[Yellow Evan]

Congratulations, Wali, you've just added to our growing list of consecutive weak/pathetic storms! Because of you, we're now at 4 in a row!

What was so pathetic about Douglas? It lasted longer than expected.

To be honest, El Nino years have its own share of weak systems.

To me, Douglas fell into the weak category which I mentioned first but it wasn't pathetic because of its duration.

As for Wali, all I have to say is: goodbye ...

Douglas impressed me.

Wali is still a Hawaii threat. It will probs be on the CPHC TWO a bit.

[Yellow Evan]

Also, on a trivia note, this completes list 3 from the CPAC naming list.