WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

why do I get the feeling there is going to be high loss of life due to foolish actions?

[Alyono]

Haikou may have missed the eyewall, but just barely

[CrazyC83]

Except perhaps the first pic inside, everyone in those photos deserves a Darwin award.

[supercane4867]

The Chinese media and government agencies have really done a horrible job on this one, they failed to advise or evacuate major towns and cities in the landfall region even at the final approach of a super typhoon.
Most people in Haikou were still out to work yesterday

[wxman57]

The lowest recorded pressure on Qizhou Islands is 892.3hPa while still falling after the 917.4hPa observation was taken **Not adjusted to sea level**
Depending on the exact altitude of station which is unknown for now, actual SLP likely ranged between 905hPa to 915hPa

9174 13:00:00
8923 14:16:00
9205 15:01:00
9412 16:01:00
9536 17:01:00
9581 18:01:00
9642 19:01:00

Where did you see the 892.3hPa pressure reading? Was it an official observing station? What is the 4-letter ICAO?

[ejeraldmc]

Electricity is back just now!

Im from Lipa City, Batangas, PH and I think the eyewall passed over here Wednesday 2:30 am I was already awake because of the strong winds and rain. Every hour winds kept getting stronger. I noticed occasional lightning and heard howling strong gusts of wind. Then it was around 5 am I was looking outside when suddenly air rushed in the room I was in. I was shocked to see our window gone. Wind and rain poured in. The intact windows were shaking. The whole room was shaking!! I went downstairs and helped the others hold the other windows in danger of being blown off or destroyed. Daylight ensues. I saw the awning of our balcony destroyed. After 2 hours, the rain and winds were still strong. I looked outside and saw some of our neighbours' roofs blown away. The city is a mess. After 72 hours, electricity is back, just now! Just wanted to share my experience.

[supercane4867]

The lowest recorded pressure on Qizhou Islands is 892.3hPa while still falling after the 917.4hPa observation was taken **Not adjusted to sea level**
Depending on the exact altitude of station which is unknown for now, actual SLP likely ranged between 905hPa to 915hPa

9174 13:00:00
8923 14:16:00
9205 15:01:00
9412 16:01:00
9536 17:01:00
9581 18:01:00
9642 19:01:00

Where did you see the 892.3hPa pressure reading? Was it an official observing station? What is the 4-letter ICAO?

It is an unregistered automatic station that the data is available only in non-public networks for intergovernmental use. I got these numbers from a pro met in the chinese typhoon forum

[cycloneye]

Bad news coming out from Hainan as severe damage and casualties occurred.

Source

[weathernerdguy]

About to make landfall

[galaxy401]

This may shape up some very bad news for the people in the typhoon's path. Hopefully they're safe.

[Alyono]

eyewall went over Beihai today... likely with broderline cat 3/cat 4 winds

city had 1.5 million

This is basically like a major striking NYC, without the funneling of the tidal surge. However, the Gulf of Tonkin side, including Beihai, may have in fact had a significant tidal surge

[Alyono]

got a laugh at the JTWC warning

initialized at 100 kt. Issued final warning. They included this gem

"THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION."

Regeneration? The thing is still a typhoon! Plus, it's not coming back over the water

[dexterlabio]

^LOL they always have that in their final warning. Even for cyclones transitioning into an ET.. It's like their ending signature or something.

[Alyono]

who changed the title to post tropical? This is still a TYPHOON

[supercane4867]

Post-tropical?

[galaxy401]

The JTWC always seems to stop advisories as soon as a typhoon makes landfall regardless of its strength. Don't really understand it though, can't they wait for a little bit longer?...

[Alyono]

how can the thread title still say post tropical?

[djones65]

Alyono, with all due respect even your own admission is that you had been bashing JTWC. However, I have found their forecasts to be Excellent throughout the life cycle of this typhoon. You cried foul when they forecast a typhoon for Philippines and admitted you busted your forecat. After landfall in Luzon you ridiculed JTWC for forecasting a major category 3 for Hainan, China. In fact their forecast was not strong enough. Now you are bashing them for relinquishing advisories on a system inland in south China and no longer a threat to US military or it's dependencies. I just don't understand why you have objected so much to what appears to have been a very fine forecast performance from them. I want to take this time to praise JTWC for their outstanding efforts in accurately forecasting this horrible cyclone!

[Alyono]

Alyono, with all due respect even your own admission is that you had been bashing JTWC. However, I have found their forecasts to be Excellent throughout the life cycle of this typhoon. You cried foul when they forecast a typhoon for Philippines and admitted you busted your forecat. After landfall in Luzon you ridiculed JTWC for forecasting a major category 3 for Hainan, China. In fact their forecast was not strong enough. Now you are bashing them for relinquishing advisories on a system inland in south China and no longer a threat to US military or it's dependencies. I just don't understand why you have objected so much to what appears to have been a very fine forecast performance from them. I want to take this time to praise JTWC for their outstanding efforts in accurately forecasting this horrible cyclone!

JT was HORRIBLE. It was not their forecasts that are the major concern, but their analysis. You CANNOT say something is 110 kts and 941mb when the DATA says around 960mb and about 90 kts.

The issue with the SCS was due to them forecasting a cat 3/4 for the wrong reasons. They were bringing the system into the SCS as a 2/3. It was a low end 1

The issue there is INEXPERIENCED forecasters who do 2-3 year tours of duty. One CANNOT be a good TC forecaster unless one not only has the educational background, but one also needs years of experience. If they had the experience, they would understand one CANNOT blindly use Dvorak estimates as JT is known to do.

As for ending advisories... they should end them as this is no interest to them. However, no need to say monitoring for regeneration. It's still a TC

[Alyono]

77 confirmed dead in the Philippines. Hoping that the numbers remain low in China. However, it is a bit worrying that there has not been much news from the landfall zone