2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Euro doesn't show anything but GFS does show 4 low pressure super long range...

[euro6208]

95W Thread



Hyperlink to our new invest...

[euro6208]

Moderate for next 2 weeks as MJO, Kelvin Wave, and strong equatorial Rossby Wave moves through with a very large area of above average rainfall, enhanced convection expected.

Westerly wind burst enhancing activity as well...

In the western Pacific, a fairly large area between 10N and 20N could be favorable during Week-2 with dynamical guidance suggesting below-normal wind shear.

[euro6208]

Very active WPAC with 1 typhoon and 4 invest!

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 93W is now Tropical depression 10 according to the best track.

[Hurricane_Luis]

An update to the image that Euro posted.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The basin is VERY active, as the currently 120-kt Rammasun is forecast to be a 130-kt super typhoon. TD 10W intensified to a tropical storm and was named Matmo (replacement for Chataan) and is forecast to be officially a typhoon by the JMA 2 days from now, and is expected to reach 95 knots in the JTWC forecast.

[euro6208]

The west pacific is like a typhoon developing factory! Would be something if the other 2 invest develops too...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS showing a tropical storm from the Central Pacific, which rapidly intensifies and becomes a strong typhoon and deepens to 951 mb.

[euro6208]

Hurricane Wali or Ana from the Central Pacific?

[Yellow Evan]

http://i60.tinypic.com/2ut14zm.png

http://i59.tinypic.com/11lhp9s.png

http://i58.tinypic.com/a2ujjq.png

Hurricane Wali or Ana from the Central Pacific?

We already have Wali. Those two would be Ana and Ela.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://i60.tinypic.com/2ut14zm.png

http://i59.tinypic.com/11lhp9s.png

http://i58.tinypic.com/a2ujjq.png

Hurricane Wali or Ana from the Central Pacific?

We already have Wali. Those two would be Ana and Ela.

That actually is only one storm. So, it would be named Ana.

[euro6208]

Halong rapidly intensifying in the Philippine Sea while Pre-Halong developing east of Guam.

Crossover TC from the CPAC...



Halong down to 966 mb and Typhoon Nakri developing rapidly east of Guam...



Typhoon Halong impacting the Ryukyu Islands and Typhoon Nakri direct hits Guam...

[euro6208]

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 200647
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
447 PM CHST SUN JUL 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MARIANAS
WATERS MOVING AWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN EAST OF THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL APPROACH AND ENTER THE ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AROUND POHNPEI
WHICH COULD INFLUENCE WEATHER IN THE MARIANAS LATER THIS WEEK. THE
VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 17
KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 12 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
APPROACHING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING IN SOME SHOWERS
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. APPARENTLY THE CENTER WILL
PASS SOUTH OF GUAM BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS NOTED ABOVE...WINDS
ARE NOT REALLY HIGH AT THIS TIME. NEITHER ARE PARTICULARLY HIGH
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOST LIKELY THE RAIN WILL
BE JUST ENOUGH TO BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC FOR THE GUAM LIBERATION DAY
PARADE ON MONDAY. THE BIGGER WORRY MIGHT BE IF A THUNDERSTORM
ERUPTS WHILE PEOPLE ARE STILL CAMPED ALONG THE SIDE OF THE ROAD.
THE METAL FRAMES COULD ATTRACT THE LIGHTNING AND THEY ARE NOT
NEARLY SOLID ENOUGH METAL TO ACT AS A FARADAY CAGE. WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE BY TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR
POHNPEI WILL APPROACH STARTING WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS
CURRENTLY HANDLED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR
THE MOMENT...THAT LOOKS GOOD. PLENTY OF TIME TO UPDATE THAT AS THE
POTENTIAL AFFECTS BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF GUAM IS JUST
SHOWING UP ON RADAR...SO POSITION FIXES ARE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE RADAR DOES SUGGEST THOUGH THAT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY A
SUSPECT AREA WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE TO BECOME A WARNED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MARIANAS. THE REASON THIS CASE
MAY DESERVE SPECIAL TREATMENT IS THAT IT WILL AFFECT THE GUAM
LIBERATION DAY PARADE AND MARINE CORPS DRIVE CAMPERS. THE SHEER
NUMBER OF PEOPLE OUTDOORS WITH INADEQUATE SHELTER MAKES ANY
LIGHTNING AT ALL A MUCH BIGGER WORRY THAN USUAL. ALSO...
SIGNIFICANT RAINS COULD WASH RIGHT OVER THE GROUND WHICH IS THE
FLOOR OF THE CANOPIES. THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON
MONDAY... WHICH WOULD OTHERWISE BE A NON-EVENT...COULD BECOME A
PROBLEM. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A HAIR TRIGGER ON URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR NOWCASTS FOR LIGHTNING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES AND THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF POHNPEI TO A
WEAK CIRCULATION FOUND NEAR 4N160E WHILE AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE
STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM KOSRAE TO MAJURO. THE CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE FARTHER TO THE EAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS AT MAJURO
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL
PULL CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW SOME DRYING AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF CHUUK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO GUAM...BUT THE MONSOON TROUGH STILL
EXTENDS ACROSS CHUUK STATE...PASSING NEAR WENO. SATELLITE SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS OVER CHUUK NOW BUT MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK.

FRESH MONSOONAL WINDS IN THE LEE OF TYPHOON MATMO CONTINUE TO PUSH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PALAU AND YAP. WINDS WILL
LET UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CIRCULATION
AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI CONTINUING WESTWARD...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS THE
CIRCULATION NOW SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD YAP. FOR
NOW...GFS SEEMS THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SO AM FOLLOWING ITS GUIDANCE
IN SHOWING A WEAK CIRCULATION REACHING YAP STATE FROM THE EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. SHOWER COVERAGE REMAINS LESS CERTAIN...BUT FOR
NOW AM EXPECTING A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR. LARGE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL GENERATED BY TYPHOON MATMO WILL PROLONG HAZARDOUS SEA AND
SURF ACROSS PALAU AND WESTERN YAP STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

MJO moving away from our area so activity should slow down but activity should increase next month as it is peak season for us with a possible return of the MJO.

[Ntxw]

Dr. Ventrice's tweet just about says it all. The uptick of activity in July has been impressive here and have had profound downstream effects weather in the North America after they have effected Asia/WPAC

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice
"It's going to be the summer of recurving West Pacific Typhoon folks. GFS shows yet another one. More cool air to come"

[euro6208]

The landfall onslaught continues.

[euro6208]

Typhoon Nakri...

[euro6208]

Looks like after our twin monster typhoons if verified, activity should slow down as none of the models don't show anything...

[euro6208]

Nakri



Direct hit for Guam!



Peak

Waiting for a renumber of an invest for large area of disturbed weather in eastern micronesia...