WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon
Matmo did strengthened over the past 24 hours and is looking very healthy.. Let's see what we will get out of this.
Current Floater Satellite Imagery
Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/FxWsKm
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Current Floater Satellite Imagery
Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/FxWsKm
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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SHORT VERSION OF DISCLAIMER: THIS SITE LINK BELOW IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECASTING OFFICE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO MAKE ANY EMERGENCY DECISIONS....
http://www.macstropicalweather.weebly.com
http://www.macstropicalweather.weebly.com
Not intensifying at the moment
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .52pc.html
earlier, a well defined eye was visible on the microwave. Now... looks to have been sheared a bit
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .52pc.html
earlier, a well defined eye was visible on the microwave. Now... looks to have been sheared a bit
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I wonder if Matmo will FINALLY convince some here to stop using the ECMWF to predict genesis and intensity in the deep tropics.
It simply cannot predict genesis in the deep tropics. It depicts near cat 5s as open wave (Rammasun, until it cleared the Philippines), and has Matmo as a very weak system
It simply cannot predict genesis in the deep tropics. It depicts near cat 5s as open wave (Rammasun, until it cleared the Philippines), and has Matmo as a very weak system
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon
Alyono wrote:I wonder if Matmo will FINALLY convince some here to stop using the ECMWF to predict genesis and intensity in the deep tropics.
It simply cannot predict genesis in the deep tropics. It depicts near cat 5s as open wave (Rammasun, until it cleared the Philippines), and has Matmo as a very weak system
Here here!
It's beyond useless when it comes to that. Bring back the glory days of the Euro, I remember it nailing Sepat back in 2007 over a week out, formation and track. Funnily the JTWC forecast track for Matmo reminds me of Sepat somewhat.
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon
Hi James. Are you going to chase Matmo in Taiwan?
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Badly sheared at the moment
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .84pc.html
Most likely, this is not a typhoon at the moment, but should become one again in about 12 hours
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .84pc.html
Most likely, this is not a typhoon at the moment, but should become one again in about 12 hours
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon
10W MATMO 140720 0000 12.7N 129.5E WPAC 70 970
Remains 70 knots.
Remains 70 knots.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon
It doesn't look like a typhoon...
_______________________________
TXPQ29 KNES 200327
TCSWNP
A. 10W (MATMO)
B. 20/0232Z
C. 13.5N
D. 129.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI
H. REMARKS...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENTATION LOOKS IMPRESSIVE IN ANIMATED
EIR IMAGERY WITH AN EXTENSIVE COLD OVERCAST THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE EYE DEPICTED IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY BETWEEN 1541Z AND 1846Z IS GONE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 2141Z
THROUGH 0109Z SHOWED AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH
ACTIVE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM WAS CHARACTERIZED IN THE 0232Z VISIBLE IMAGE BY AN IRREGULAR
1.6 DEGREE CDO WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE
PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD FEATURES
USED TO DERIVE THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/0109Z 13.5N 129.8E TMI
...TURK
_______________________________
TXPQ29 KNES 200327
TCSWNP
A. 10W (MATMO)
B. 20/0232Z
C. 13.5N
D. 129.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI
H. REMARKS...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENTATION LOOKS IMPRESSIVE IN ANIMATED
EIR IMAGERY WITH AN EXTENSIVE COLD OVERCAST THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE EYE DEPICTED IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY BETWEEN 1541Z AND 1846Z IS GONE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 2141Z
THROUGH 0109Z SHOWED AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH
ACTIVE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM WAS CHARACTERIZED IN THE 0232Z VISIBLE IMAGE BY AN IRREGULAR
1.6 DEGREE CDO WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE
PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD FEATURES
USED TO DERIVE THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/0109Z 13.5N 129.8E TMI
...TURK
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Looks more like 60 kts, and not 65-70 knots.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon
Very interesting 00Z run.
Completely misses Taiwan and instead makes landfall south of Shanghai, The most populated city on earth!
Pressure 958 mb...
Completely misses Taiwan and instead makes landfall south of Shanghai, The most populated city on earth!
Pressure 958 mb...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon
The 00Z GFS run is showing a possible landfall in Zhejiang province and weakening to "tropical storm strength" at Shanghai and then curves NE towards the Korean Peninsula.
5-day forecasts for typhoons have a considerable tracking error - we will have to wait and see.
It is "normal" to get typhoons curving NE towards the Korean Peninsula though usually they dont cross the east Chinese coastline.
Edit: the JMA 5-day forecast is very different to GFS
There is too much uncertainty to draw conclusions this early
By Tuesday the forecasts should be more aligned and we can try to draw conclusions
5-day forecasts for typhoons have a considerable tracking error - we will have to wait and see.
It is "normal" to get typhoons curving NE towards the Korean Peninsula though usually they dont cross the east Chinese coastline.
Edit: the JMA 5-day forecast is very different to GFS
There is too much uncertainty to draw conclusions this early
By Tuesday the forecasts should be more aligned and we can try to draw conclusions
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Strong winds and rains here in Cebu.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Strong winds and rains here in Cebu.
Since when has it started raining in your area? Was it heavy or continuous?
I agree with the previous posts, this doesn't look like a typhoon..in fact this could be the ugliest-looking typhoon I've seen. Though the latest few sat frames show the structure becoming more circular and symmetric again...
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon
ugliest typhoon I ever saw. I'm surprised both JMA and JTWC is not yet downgrading this.
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it's starting to show signs of intensification, actually.. the effects of strong wind shear are starting to wear off--you can see it on the visible satellite loop. the eyewall is also starting to take shape.
we should see continuous intensification from now until landfall tomorrow. i'm still expecting this to reach Category 3 strength.
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we should see continuous intensification from now until landfall tomorrow. i'm still expecting this to reach Category 3 strength.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.
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