WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

no... not intensifying. It remains decoupled to an extent on the microwave

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .69pc.html

the MLC is very impressive. However, it is not aligned with the surface center

[Alyono]

now... a new microwave product indicates that the centers may becoming aligned

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .48pc.html

I am still expecting this to intensify... should begin to in about 6 to 12 hours

[djones65]

I agree completely! Latest microwaves and isibl at Jul 21 0401 UTC suggests the surface and mid level centers are FINALLY becoming aligned which should begin a steady intensification trend. Previously in my opinion the surface center was displaced 35-45 miles northeast of the mid level center. I suspect the northerly mid level shear has relaxed and Matmo will likely become a major within 24 hours.

[euro6208]

70 knots and make landfall near major typhoon strength...

WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPENED WITH AN INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE, AS
EVIDENT IN A 211100Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE, OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY TIGHTLY-WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 10W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 48.
AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD. BY
TAU 72, TY 10W WILL BE WELL INLAND AND THEN RE-CURVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, RAPID DECAYING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. TY 10W WILL EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN
THE YELLOW SEA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, BUT REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Huge blowup of convection...

[Alyono]

had ditched its CCC pattern and now has a banding pattern. It will intensify significantly now

[euro6208]

had ditched its CCC pattern and now has a banding pattern. It will intensify significantly now

One of the models showing a clear well defined eye by landfall in taiwan. This is looking bad....

[mrbagyo]

Huge blowup of convection...

If it carries that convection all the way to Taiwan - It'll be a huge problem...another historical rain event?

[Alyono]

rain is the big problem for Taiwan, not wind. I've been told this by someone from Taiwan

[tonypace]

A typhoon that goes up the Taiwan Strait can cause a lot of wind damage in the central regions that are much less well built for it, but we haven't had a serious one of that nature for about 20 years. Generally, there isn't so much wind damage. Rain, on the other hand, is another story, given the tendency of the high mountains to block all the clouds and drop all the moisture. I'm certainly a bit concerned about this one, living in Taichung.

[cycloneye]

Here is a geographic map of Taiwan that shows the mountain ranges as well the towns and the capital Taipei.

[RL3AO]

One of my professors has been doing research on modeling rainfall in the mountains of Taiwan from TC's. I'm sure he's watching this closely.

[Steve820]

This has potential to start rapid intensification. Taiwan should really be prepared!

[euro6208]

10W MATMO 140722 0000 20.6N 123.6E WPAC 80 963

Latest BT has winds up to 80 knots!

[euro6208]

I see a small yet faint eye that got obscured by convection...

[dexterlabio]

It looks like it's trying to close off an eye, but it needs more time before it slams Taiwan. Could a visible eye appear in 12 hours?

[Alyono]

this may be worse due to the broad and intense rain

Mudslides likely for Taiwan

[dhoeze]

Taiwan... praying for your safety.

[dexterlabio]

a visible eye is appearing

[euro6208]

10W MATMO 140722 0600 21.9N 122.7E WPAC 85 959

Up to 85 knots!