ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here is the synopsis by the pouch folks made early this morning.They designated this as Pouch 05L instead of Pouch 03L that was in the past few days.


92L … P05L
10N, 40W
700 hPa

ECMWF:

GFS: Is not absorbed by P04L, but rather, remains distinct and strengthens for the next couple days while P04L weakens. P05L/92L then weakens as well.

UKMET: UKMET has, for a few days, depicted a distinct OW max/pouch in this area between a fast but weak P03L and a slower and northern P04L. At its strongest at 24 hours. Slight reintensification at 120 hours has a bit of lee cyclogenesis on the north side of Hispaniola.

NAVGEM: Tracks to the north, perhaps absorbing P04L, becoming its strongest at 36 hours. Then tracks to the west at about 12N, slower than the other models. NAVGEM also hints at lee cyclogenesis on the north side of Hispaniola, but it is completely separate from P05L since P05L is slower and still to the east on Day 5.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

I knew the percentage would go up based on how 92L is looking. But never expected it to jump that much in one shot.

I had a feeling it would. A dramatic jump in %'s.

[bella_may]

This system was suppose to be dead already due to dry air. There is a chance conditions down the road won't be as hostile as forecast.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0145 PM EDT MON 21 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-051 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE FIX/INVEST
NEAR 14.0N 54.0W AT 23/1730Z.

[cycloneye]

TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 211800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 41.7W TO 12.3N 50.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 41.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BRIDGETOWN, BARBADOS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 83 DEGREES AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221800Z.//

[canes04]

Wow, NO ONE saw this coming. This is why we love the tropics!

Happy tracking.

[Senobia]

Global models still have not resolved this system, but after manual initialization by NHC, Early Track and Intensity model forecasts call for the system to become a Depression today and possibly reach Tropical Storm intensity during the next 48-72 hours once the system moves over waters that are warm enough to support storm formation.

Fig 5: Early 12Z model runs (primarily based on CLIMO and limited dynamical / statistical forecasts) show the system becoming a Tropical storm, and POSSIBLY a minimal CAT 1 by the time it reaches the NE CARIB. Confidence is Low for this forecast.

From Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog

[cycloneye]

18z Best track:

AL, 92, 2014072118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 431W, 30, 1013, LO

[gatorcane]

Saved image vis loop, holding it's own:

[Hurricanehink]

I'm confused. The NHC says "the system is producing a small area of winds near tropical storm force." But then it also says "Only a small increase in organization of the shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression..."

So... I guess the emphasis is on the "near", meaning not quite? They did something similar for Andrea 13, when they said it had winds of near gale force, but they added that it had the potential to become either a TD or a TS. Am I just reading too much into this?

[canes04]

Should be upgraded at 5:00pm

JMHO

[Hurricane Andrew]

Back for the season!

I have to agree with previous poster, I think NHC pulls the trigger at 5. Too bad I have to go camping soon. Being off the grid sucks.

[GrimReaper]

How did this go from a 10% situation to a 70% in just a few hours? And...why are they saying conditions are unfavorable, yet keeping the 70% through the 5-day?

[RL3AO]

How did this go from a 10% situation to a 70% in just a few hours? And...why are they saying conditions are unfavorable, yet keeping the 70% through the 5-day?

The five day can't be lower than the two day. Can't say 70% chance of forming within two days and a 40% chance within five days. The fact that they are the same tells you that conditions get unfavorable and its best chance is in the near term.

[RL3AO]

18z Best track:

AL, 92, 2014072118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 431W, 30, 1013, LO

Its so frustrating that this doesn't mean anything. I miss our clues that they are going to upgrade.

[Hurricane Andrew]

18z Best track:

AL, 92, 2014072118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 431W, 30, 1013, LO

Its so frustrating that this doesn't mean anything. I miss our clues that they are going to upgrade.

What do you mean? Did they stop doing something?

[RL3AO]

18z Best track:

AL, 92, 2014072118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 431W, 30, 1013, LO

Its so frustrating that this doesn't mean anything. I miss our clues that they are going to upgrade.

What do you mean? Did they stop doing something?

They don't do the "renumbers" on the FTP site anymore that usually gave us a heads up that they were going to initiate advisories. Now we have to wait and see if an advisory pops up at advisory time.

[Hurricane Andrew]

They don't do the "renumbers" on the FTP site anymore that usually gave us a heads up that they were going to initiate advisories. Now we have to wait and see if an advisory pops up at advisory time.

They don't???

[canes04]

I would be very surprised if they don't upgrade to a TD at 5pm.
This could be a TS tonight.

JMHO

[RL3AO]

They don't do the "renumbers" on the FTP site anymore that usually gave us a heads up that they were going to initiate advisories. Now we have to wait and see if an advisory pops up at advisory time.

They don't???

No. Lots of people, especially in the media, were using the data to say the NHC was *going* to start advisories. NHC didn't like this because something could change between the renumber and the advisory. So now we don't know until an advisory pops up.