ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, I wouldn't be surprised if this is declared a TD at 5 either. Maybe 11 if they want to give it a bit more time to see if it can maintain or build more convection. Certainly looks good enough to me to earn a number

[canes04]

Just realized Bertha is up next. She loves to form in the MDR in July.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks more impressive ATM than any of the recent storms in the E-Pac.

[weathernerdguy]

I think it going to be a tropical low until tommorrow....

[RevDodd]

Hmmm: Bertha, forming in the middle of nowhere in July .... naw! Couldn't happen again!

[Alyono]

probably at peak intensity now. May be a weak TS. However, by early Wednesday, I'd expect this to be an open wave again

[Frank2]

That's encouraging news - thanks (I mean that), because though small it's a classic-looking CV disturbance...

[tropicwatch]

Looks like she has some pretty good conditions above her right now.

[cycloneye]

Good enough to be upgraded based on this.



WU source

[Steve820]

I think it'll be upgraded to a depression by this evening! It looks very good, like a TS. But because it will enter unfavorable conditions in a couple days, I only predict a peak of 50 mph out of future Bertha.

[Syx6sic]

Hmmm: Bertha, forming in the middle of nowhere in July .... naw! Couldn't happen again!

I remember this Bertha was a 12 years old and tracking it by myself with just the points given out on tv

[ObsessedMiami]

Channel 7 in Miami stated it is 70% as of now. Surprising!

[djones65]

I personally think this meets criteria of tropical cyclone. However, dry air WILL be a detriment. And convection is warming markedly as should be expected with diurnal minimum (although full disclosure it has been diurnal minimum all day) Dmax isn't until late evening into predawn hours. But I fear there is not sufficient low level convergence to sustain organized convection. I would not upgrade until convection re forms. Perhaps tomorrow morning? But wind shear should increase on Wedneday. Perhaps another Chantal or Dorian similar to 2013 as was mentioned by another poster earlier today?

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[PTrackerLA]

Here we go...stays as a TD

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[CrazyC83]

The little system that could. No one expected it to get this far...could this be one of those sleepers that comes out of a seemingly hostile environment?

[blp]

Well the NHC is not giving it much of a chance which is not a big surprise. I do think it may get a shot at TS. What I don't get is why are the intensity models showing favorable conditions and strengthening. This could get interesting because the models are having a hard time with it. I do think that once it lifts a little North and it looses the moisture from the ITCZ it will really struggle. Let's see what happens.

[blp]

It is in a nice pocket of moisture right now and you are still seeing some moderate storms firing close to the low so it may hang around for a little longer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

[CrazyC83]

I know it isn't likely to happen, but I remember Michael 2012 being written off by everyone and then blossoming...

[Steve820]

Hopefully it doesn't become named. I don't want any name-stealers. But, at least it became a tropical cyclone!