2014 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

This is the month of invests and 45 mph storms in my opinion.

[Yellow Evan]

New area.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Same system moles have been showing for a while.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS is consistently predicting a TS.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS makes this a hurricane at last:

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS sows a high-end TS.

[South Texas Storms]

EPAC could be heating up in the next week or so.

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased near a small area of
low pressure located about 1125 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next few
days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is expected by the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend while it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! Maybe we might see something decent from one of these based on the percents and number of areas forecast.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow! Maybe we might see something decent from one of these based on the percents and number of areas forecast.

MJO is coming back.

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! This is madness! Another area?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of
low pressure located about 1125 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next few
days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is expected by the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend while it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

4. Yet another area of low pressure could form in a few days several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some development of this system is possible by the
weekend while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Haven't seen the 18z yet, but the 12z shows Genvieve (out of 91E) and Hernan (out of the system behind 91E)



Also hints at developing the system east and west of this.



Makes the one after 91E a hurricane (Hernan)

[Yellow Evan]

Wow.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS shows two and kinda hints at a possible third (the one left of 91E).



Makes Hernan a Cat 1.

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward into the
central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is expected over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Yet another area of low pressure could form during the next couple
of days several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula. Some gradual development of this system
is possible by the weekend while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

2. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward into the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is expected over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

4. Another area of low pressure could form during the next couple
of days several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system
is possible by the weekend while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Shows two systems, but much weaker. It indicates that Hernan could be sheared part shortly after forming.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF shows 3 systems within the next 5 days.

[euro6208]

I see, it could be the EPAC's turn to get hyperactive following the WPAC.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow.

I see one basin where the lid could potentially be about ready to come off!