ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

There's a tiny center burst happening.

[wxman57]

Just a thunderstorm. No circulation. I wonder what recon is doing?

URNT15 KNHC 231619
AF304 0201A INVEST HDOB 09 20140723
160930 1600N 05903W 3751 08078 0444 -195 -526 090009 009 032 000 03
161000 1558N 05900W 3751 08079 0445 -200 -525 100008 009 032 000 00
161030 1556N 05859W 3752 08078 0445 -199 -525 103008 008 032 000 00
161100 1555N 05857W 3751 08079 0445 -197 -524 102008 008 032 000 00
161130 1553N 05855W 3751 08078 0445 -200 -524 108008 008 032 000 00
161200 1551N 05853W 3751 08079 0445 -200 -524 109008 008 032 000 00
161230 1549N 05851W 3751 08079 0445 -200 -524 111007 008 033 000 00
161300 1547N 05849W 3751 08079 0446 -200 -524 110008 008 032 000 00
161330 1545N 05847W 3753 08078 0446 -198 -524 103007 007 032 000 00
161400 1543N 05845W 3751 08080 0447 -196 -524 099006 007 032 001 00
161430 1541N 05843W 3751 08078 0446 -196 -524 104007 007 032 000 00
161500 1539N 05841W 3756 08072 0446 -195 -524 102007 007 032 000 00
161530 1537N 05839W 3752 08079 0446 -195 -524 092007 007 032 000 00
161600 1535N 05837W 3752 08080 0446 -195 -524 107008 008 032 000 00
161630 1534N 05835W 3751 08080 0446 -196 -524 110009 010 032 000 00
161700 1532N 05833W 3751 08084 0448 -200 -524 115012 013 032 000 00
161730 1530N 05831W 3753 08085 0451 -200 -524 111015 017 032 000 00
161800 1528N 05830W 3759 08074 0454 -200 -525 109017 017 031 001 00
161830 1526N 05828W 3761 08074 0458 -200 -526 106016 017 030 001 00
161900 1525N 05826W 3846 07922 0461 -189 -528 104015 016 030 000 00
$$

[tropicwatch]

Don't know, kind of strange

[tropicwatch]

Kind of looks like that have three planes up. One might be checking out the area south of Louisiana as a non-tasked mission.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

[blp]

I am no expert but I did see what looked like a naked llc earlier and then the blowup covered it. I still think this has something at the surface. I don't expect it to last much longer but it is still fighting. It seems as if easterly shear is what really hit this overnight.



Where I think it is after blow-up

[TexasF6]

It looks like a center has reformed itself under the new burst. Old center is, ahem, "Dead Jim!"

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[TheStormExpert]

Yea, I agree, it's an open wave. But that's okay because before long we will be tracking Hurricanes not wimpy depressions as the African Wave Train gets started.....The top is about to bust open very soon.....

The top is NOT about ready to bust open with TONS and I mean T-O-N-S of Dry Air and SAL sprawling all accros the Tropical Atlantic and into the Caribbean, not to mention we also still have Wind Shear playing a good factor into this as well, though not as widespread. I am currently sensing a repeat of last season with maybe a minimal Cat.1 hurricane forming from a Tropical Wave off of Africa around the main peak date period of the season similar to Humberto from last year. Otherwise the real deal spots will be the Western Atlantic and just off the SE U.S. Coast, the GoM and Bay of Campeche, and maybe the Western Caribbean. Eastern half of Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic should be mostly void of any development beyond a few weak TD's/maybe weak TS's similar to TD #2.

[Alyono]

recon showed a wide open wave

This is dead

[TheStormExpert]

recon showed a wide open wave

This is dead

Figures, never had a chance.

Still questioning though why they would send out Recon when it was obvious that it was about dead? They also did this with 90L back in the beginning of June when it was already on land. Doesn't make much sense to me.

[JonathanBelles]

http://t.co/SQ0Q94ai7L

Busy map, but here's what is going on with Ex-TD2. Dry air and shear aren't getting any better anytime soon.

[ninel conde]

Yea, I agree, it's an open wave. But that's okay because before long we will be tracking Hurricanes not wimpy depressions as the African Wave Train gets started.....The top is about to bust open very soon.....

maybe very soon as in late july 2015 assuming water vapor can somehow exist in the deep atlantic tropics. even though arthur formed im not as bullish on in close developments as some are. im reading from quite a few sources where aug looks quite a bit cooler than normal over the eastern 2/3 of the nation implying rather hostile condtions close to home. i would think sept will be even worse.

[colbroe]

Looks like it is trying to develop,over the last hour convection has been expanding ,any comments.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks like it is trying to develop,over the last hour convection has been expanding ,any comments.

A bursting pattern is not uncommon with degenerating systems. This is still a strong tropical wave after all. But there is no evidence of a closed circulation, and a combination of wind shear, dry air, and fast trade winds should make sure TD2 remains a post-tropical cyclone.

[artist]

recon showed a wide open wave

This is dead

Figures, never had a chance.

Still questioning though why they would send out Recon when it was obvious that it was about dead? They also did this with 90L back in the beginning of June when it was already on land. Doesn't make much sense to me.

Maybe testing the drones? Who knows, though.

[canes04]

15N 57W looks suspicious. Not dead just yet!

[BigB0882]

Will this completely go poof or is it something to keep an eye on as it makes it's way West? Would better conditions be in the western Caribbean as it so often seems? What about the Gulf of Mexico?

[Hammy]

im reading from quite a few sources where aug looks quite a bit cooler than normal over the eastern 2/3 of the nation implying rather hostile condtions close to home. i would think sept will be even worse.

I wouldn't write the season off yet based on anonymous sources showing a cooler East given CPC is showing much above normal temperatures for both August and ASO period.

I am surprised they're flying into this system with the shape it's in, given that they cancelled with the BoC system back in June, even though it clearly had a closed circulation and some amount of convection.

[wxman57]

It's poofing out now.

[Cyclenall]

Yea, I agree, it's an open wave. But that's okay because before long we will be tracking Hurricanes not wimpy depressions as the African Wave Train gets started.....The top is about to bust open very soon.....

Are you aware this season will not be similar to a typical season? At best, this season will be a repeat of last year but I highly doubt it. It was much more promising looking a year ago now and there were some predicting that the top was going to come off during early September; the top isn't going anywhere. Even if the African wave train gets started (hint it isn't), nothing of real value will come of it with profoundly terrible conditions for them to survive. The only thing that is busting open is your hope of tracking hurricanes instead of wimpy depressions in the Atlantic .

Yea, I agree, it's an open wave. But that's okay because before long we will be tracking Hurricanes not wimpy depressions as the African Wave Train gets started.....The top is about to bust open very soon.....

maybe very soon as in late july 2015 assuming water vapor can somehow exist in the deep atlantic tropics.

I thought that too .

15N 57W looks suspicious. Not dead just yet!

If it were to re-generate for a few hours it would be meaningless as the records wouldn't reflect it.

[wxman57]

Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.