TWC bullish about 1st week of aug

[ninel conde]

not sure why but they are saying something could spin up off africa.

[gatorcane]

The models have been hinting at lowering pressures off of Africa around that time. We have posted the model runs showing this in the Global Models thread.

[ninel conde]

actually, through 10 days the euro has rather high pressures all across the tropical atlantic as does the gfs thru 180.

[WPBWeather]

actually, through 10 days the euro has rather high pressures all across the tropical atlantic as does the gfs thru 180.

Not correct. You should check your models links once again.

[Hammy]

Euro has actually been showing a large wave over the eastern Atlantic around Aug 3-4 for the last several runs now.

[Hurricaneman]

Euro has actually been showing a large wave over the eastern Atlantic around Aug 3-4 for the last several runs now.

Which coincides with the MJO modeled b y the Euro being in phases 1 and 2 at that point

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SFLcane]

Na....winter pattern in place season over.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

thats the euro out to day 10. i see only at or above normal pressures in the tropics, no green. after this i guess we need to discuss this in the model thread.

[Hammy]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

higher resolution graphics show a large area of vorticity exiting Africa in about eight days.

[beoumont]

Nothing in eastern half of Atlantic for now, one would think:

[ninel conde]

as i would expect TWC didnt mention anything about development this morning, just talked about the much higher than normal bone dry air.

[ConvergenceZone]

based upon all this dry air, I wouldn't be surprised if we set a record by the end of the season with the fewest named storms ever...... I don't think I've ever seen SAL looking that strong and deep......

[Hurricaneman]

based upon all this dry air, I wouldn't be surprised if we set a record by the end of the season with the fewest named storms ever...... I don't think I've ever seen SAL looking that strong and deep......

its impossible to do since we already have had 1 named storm but if you're talking about the satellite era then I think you're underestimating things but as we all know things can change quickly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

based upon all this dry air, I wouldn't be surprised if we set a record by the end of the season with the fewest named storms ever...... I don't think I've ever seen SAL looking that strong and deep......

its impossible to do since we already have had 1 named storm but if you're talking about the satellite era then I think you're underestimating things but as we all know things can change quickly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yea, but even wxman said he was talking with another meteorologist and he's never seen such unfavorable conditions as he's seeing this year...

[bamajammer4eva]

Nothing in eastern half of Atlantic for now, one would think:

[img]http://i60.tinypic.com/111860o.jpg

Interesting as we near August but oh how quickly this can change

August 1st 2005 had a lot of SAL even as the wave that produced Irene was about to emerge from Africa.

[Frank2]

Listening to TWC about something in the future is not a good idea, because they choose what to say at their "creatve meetings", especially during the weekday mornings when competition is the most intense, and tend to make the public worry about things that might not even happen (typical for the media - but its good for their ratings). From what it appears, the Tropical Atlantic is becoming more active (lower pressures, more deep convection) and unlike last season might be more of an issue during the coming weeks, but let's hope its not too much of an issue...

P.S. One of the TWC OCMs recently posted a photo on Twitter that might have caused some to wonder - it showed two young OCMs of their morning show - after the show, looking more like a team that just lost in overtime - tired and unhappy - but when the camera is on they are all smiles, so again be careful when it comes to what you choose as a source of information, because commercial channels are there for the money they can make from increased ratings and not necessarily because they are giving an accurate view of the weather..

[tropicwatch]

Frank2, unfortunately the TWC now appears to be the nanny channel. Some of the posts on Facebook are really out there like trying to make people scared of the there own shadow in an odd sort of way. Of course they like other media outlets have to pump things up a bit to gain interest in the topic.

[WPBWeather]

Folks: There WILL be tropical depressions, storms and even hurricanes in the Atlantic again. Not to worry! It is amazing to see some of the posts on here that seems to indicate otherwise. Only when Arthur appeared a few weeks ago, the nay sayers were not to be seen online.

[Frank2]

I was here during Arthur, but over the years (before S2K when some of us used to post on the old TWC message board), when there is a landfalling system, we found that the board quickly becomes over populated with first-time posters and it's best to just step aside and let them have use of the board until the crisis passes...

Now, as some know I thought the low that was to become Arthur wouldn't form, but I was wrong - it was a rare system and even the experts didn't think it would become what it became and that's why meteorology is called an inexact science : )

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

bamajammer4eva, please don't compare 2005 to this season terms of the bad SAL that existed in 2005 before everything ramped up. We know that 2005 was during one of those excessive activity periods and that season had lots of other conditions going for it as well that 2014 does not have.

Prediction: B and C Storms in August, D, E, F Storms in September, and G storm in October...
and that's like 1 storm every 2 weeks in August and 1 storm every week and 1/2 or so in September....
So as you can see, I'm far from "predicting" that it's going to be a completely dry year!!!.... 2 Storms in August and 3 in September is actually pretty good in a year where the NHC is expecting low activity..... and who knows, if there are only 5 total storms in August and September, one or more of those storms could be a major hurricane that hits land....