CPAC: INVEST 92C

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2014072412, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1224W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072418, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1227W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1230W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072506, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1232W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1235W, 25, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater

[Yellow Evan]

This is the 30/40 system, right?

[cycloneye]

This is the 30/40 system, right?

The more Western one than 94E that is at 20/50.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Here is what the Eastern Pacific looks like. Very Busy.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure centered
about 1150 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized and the potential
for tropical cyclone formation during the next 24 hours or so has
increased. However, after that time, upper-level winds are forecast
to become less favorable for development as the system moves
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it has a shot, but will be another weak TS. At last it is out of the deep tropics.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 93, 2014072518, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1245W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 19 22 28 30 29 27 21 23 21 21 13 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 0 5 4 3 0 -4 -8 -4 -1
SHEAR DIR 326 313 297 293 289 281 286 286 301 320 327 296 264
SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.4

[Steve820]

Looks like it has a shot, but will be another weak TS. At last it is out of the deep tropics.

I agree. But if it develops, I hope it only peaks as a depression so the name Hernan won't be wasted.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a westward-moving area of low
pressure centered about 1175 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula continues to become better organized.
There is potential for a tropical depression to form during the next
day or so before upper-level winds become less favorable for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it has a shot, but will be another weak TS. At last it is out of the deep tropics.

I agree. But if it develops, I hope it only peaks as a depression so the name Hernan won't be wasted.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

At this rate, itll be Iselle instead, given how good 94E looks.

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. Although upper-level winds
are currently marginally conducive for development, a tropical
depression could still form during the next day or so while the low
moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about
1250 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression
could be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be
initiated later today. However, upper-level winds are forecast to
become highly unfavorable tonight or Sunday, and this could halt
additional development of the system as it moves westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

I think this has been upgraded to a TD, based on the lack of STEXT file for 12z.

But for 6z.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 49 48 44 39 34 30 25
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 49 48 44 39 34 30 25
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 40 36 33 29 27 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 3 5 11 13 12 12 12 14 23 35
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -2 2 2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 -5
SHEAR DIR 81 264 290 314 326 316 313 292 239 254 286 340 349
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.7 27.4 26.0 24.8 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.6

Has 60 hours. Not horrible.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about
1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has decreased during the past few hours. There is also
less organization as strong upper-level winds continue to approach
the system. However, a tropical depression could still form later
today before the environment becomes highly unfavorable on Sunday.
Regardless of development, the low should continue to move slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[weathernerdguy]

this invest is in shear that is 30-40 knots

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like another bust. Well, given all the recent weak systems, I am okay with it.

[Yellow Evan]

this invest is in shear that is 30-40 knots

27 knts to be exact.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about
1350 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is currently poorly organized. While upper-level winds
are becoming less favorable for development, there is still some
potential for a tropical depression to form tonight or Sunday.
Regardless of development, the low should continue to move slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.