WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

90W INVEST 140726 0000 6.5N 159.1E WPAC 15

[euro6208]

90W looks like a large monsoon depression linked up to low over the Marianas that's bringing cloudiness and rains to the islands.

[Equilibrium]

This invest looks to have the potential to spinup into a very large and potent TY.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

Interesting.

AN INTERESTING SOLUTION IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH ALL THE
MODELS. EVEN OBSCURE MODELS FROM KOREA...TAIWAN AND AUSTRALIA LET
ALONE THE USUAL GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM. THERE IS A CIRCULATION
NORTH OF KOSRAE THIS MORNING. THESE MODELS DO SEE IT AND TO A
VARYING DEGREE DEVELOP IT AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. WITH
THIS AGREEMENT IT IS GETTING MORE LIKELY THAT SOMETHING WILL MOVE
OUR WAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT WILL IT LOOK LIKE WHEN IT GETS
HERE. GFS GOES BONKERS WITH IT MAKING IT A TYPHOON OVER THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT DO THIS MAKING IT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT BEST. NAVGEM HAS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION
IN THAT THE BIG CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU WILL ONLY HAVE A FEW DAYS
OF GLORY. BY TUESDAY THE MONSOON STARTS FLOWING INTO THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION LEAVING THE OTHER ONE WEAK. NAVGEM ONLY MAKES IT
STRONGER AFTER IT PASSES WEST OF THE MARIANAS.


NOT CERTAIN ABOUT THE PARTICULARS SO FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH BUT THINGS COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE IF THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION PICKS UP STEAM. EVEN IF THE KOSRAE CIRCULATION DOES
NOT BECOME STRONG IN TERMS OF WIND IT WILL PROBABLY PUSH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
MODELS...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. ECMWF IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS SOLUTION IN
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[euro6208]

Here we go!

Now LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 159.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LLCC
WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 252331Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALS ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD
TROUGHING, WHILE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI SHOW VARIABLE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTERLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS REGION IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Equilibrium]

90w at 1 week ahead looks to devolop into a full blown TY.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

Latest from NWS Guam:

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR SHOWER COVERAGE CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. STILL
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE/QPF TO FAVOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE PERSISTENT
BAND OF MONSOONAL CONVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST ZONES.
THE BAND OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FEED INTO 90W
AS IT APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN BRINGING
90W THROUGH THE FORECAST ZONES AROUND MID WEEK. FELT ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS TOO FAST...SO FAVORED THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 90W THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPDATED
WIND FIELDS FOR DAYS 1 THROUGH 7 TO FACTOR IN STRONG MONSOONAL
WINDS OVER THE GUAM WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS WELL AS THE
WIND FIELD FROM 90W AS IT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
PASSAGE OF 90W...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS DURING
THE TIME 90W WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

NEWLY DEVELOPED INVEST AREA 90W IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF CHUUK AT
9N158E. MOST MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING 90W AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MONSOON-TYPE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ON CHUUK AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE THERE...
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 90W BECOMES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Interesting. Models are quite bullish on this storm, and if it develops, it would be the 4th tropical storm in a row to intensify into a typhoon*.

*Indicates that it is only a possibility.

[euro6208]

06Z has a slight southward jog closer to Guam and a dramatic slowdown in forward speed. Would likely see flooding if that were to verify.

12-16 accumulated inches of rain possible with 24 inch much further north in the island chain...

[Equilibrium]

Maybe suffering NE shear atm.





Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

I'm thinking an error because the coordinates in BT doesn't match with the coordinates of this in that TCFA alert.

[euro6208]

12Z rolling...Rapidly intensifying Nakri approaching Guam...

[euro6208]

East of Guam, Southeast of Saipan...

[euro6208]

Now has it passing over Rota, an island between Guam to the south and Saipan to the North.

Although GFS has been trending more south with each run, I wouldn't be surprised if this makes a direct hit over Guam.

[somethingfunny]

Now has it passing over Rota, an island between Guam to the south and Saipan to the North.

Although GFS has been trending more south with each run, I wouldn't be surprised if this makes a direct hit over Guam.

It's been a while since you've gotten any sort of a decently-sized typhoon strike, hasn't it?

[euro6208]

Remains LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
159.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LLCC THAT IS HIGHLY ELONGATED WITH
FLARING LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 270356Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS POOR ORGANIZATION AS THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE IS HIGHLY CHAOTIC AND THE CONVECTION IS WEAKLY DEFINED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SHOWS A
DEGRADING ENVIRONMENT AS OUTFLOW HAS BECOME LIMITED DUE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE AREA AND AS VWS HAS STARTED TO INCREASE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY INDICATE DEVELOPMENT FROM
THIS REGION IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE POOR UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Now has it passing over Rota, an island between Guam to the south and Saipan to the North.

Although GFS has been trending more south with each run, I wouldn't be surprised if this makes a direct hit over Guam.

It's been a while since you've gotten any sort of a decently-sized typhoon strike, hasn't it?

Yep. We have been spared over the past few years from minimal typhoons to Category 5 typhoons. Guam and the Marianas has a higher chance to get hit during Nino years due to the storm's eastward formation near the dateline for example, TY Chataan and STY Pongsona in 2002, and STY Paka in 97 recently...Although the Marianas can be hit at any time no matter what season...

[euro6208]

Very active monsoon winds and rains and kinda breezy too with more stronger convection south of us. It's the storms before the typhoon

[Equilibrium]

storms are now binding together in the llcc.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

90W has some deep convective activity and models develop something in this area. We will see..



Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/VB1L1V

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.