Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET:


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.07.2014

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.0N 36.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 29.07.2014 10.4N 36.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.07.2014 11.8N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.07.2014 12.1N 42.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.07.2014 12.2N 47.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.07.2014 12.4N 50.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.07.2014 13.5N 53.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.08.2014 14.6N 56.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.08.2014 15.4N 59.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.08.2014 16.6N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.08.2014 18.4N 65.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[JonathanBelles]

Small update on this disturbance at the end of my new blog post:

http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/07/27/ab ... -moistens/

[gatorcane]

12Z European model is out - send its a little further west than the CMC and much further west than the GFS, recurving it over Hispaniola/Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas (keeps it weak through the run).

120 hours Central Antilles:


168 hours, near Eastern Cuba:


192 hours just north of Bahamas:

[cycloneye]

At least ECMWF has something albeit weak compared to anything in past runs.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I am not surprised to see EURO keeping this wave rather weak for the time being. Of course, a weaker system would go farther westward. Still, the environment ahead of this wave doesn't look very promising even if it tracks north of the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

The Euro is still showing a Bermuda High building in around 168 hours from now unlike the GFS model, so still a lot of disagreement with the these two models in the long-range on what the steering would like assuming this system develops and gets west of 60W.

[blp]

Just what I expected from the Euro. We now have a concensus. Let the ping pong of the models begin. Plenty of model runs to sort this out.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a blend on track and intensity (NAVGEM,UKMET) between Euro and GFS is what may occur?

[TheProfessor]

I don't know as much about tropical weather as I do severe weather, so I was wondering if the Euro is right and the Bermuda High develops pushing the trough west, and the storm survives the Caribbean, would it send the storm to the Gulf? If so, what does Gulf look like at the end of the runs?

[TheStormExpert]

Just what I expected from the Euro. We now have a concensus. Let the ping pong of the models begin. Plenty of model runs to sort this out.

The Euro barely shows anything and is the farthest west compared to the GFS. How is this a concensus?

[Ntxw]

I don't know as much about tropical weather as I do severe weather, so I was wondering if the Euro is right and the Bermuda High develops pushing the trough west, and the storm survives the Caribbean, would it send the storm to the Gulf? If so, what does Gulf look like at the end of the runs?

It's not likely to survive the Caribbean path. Very hostile there, it is a graveyard and will remain so. Best chance is to head further north into the subtropics especially near and north of the Antilles, however there it will feel more the effects of the trofs however far too down the road first we need development if it occurs.

[Alyono]

how many times does it need to be stated?

YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME LOOKING AT THE ECMWF FOR GENESIS

[cycloneye]

Before the sun goes.

[Blown Away]

Time for Invest status...

[NDG]

how many times does it need to be stated?

YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME LOOKING AT THE ECMWF FOR GENESIS

You mean for the deep tropics? It smoked the GFS with the birth of Arthur.

[Alyono]

yes... in the deep tropics. Havnt we learned enough from it predicting 1 of the last 10 WPAC systems?

[hurricanekid416]

It needs to develop quick before it hits the leeward islands or it wont last

[northjaxpro]

how many times does it need to be stated?

YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME LOOKING AT THE ECMWF FOR GENESIS

You mean for the deep tropics? It smoked the GFS with the birth of Arthur.

Yeah EURO really shined with Arthur's genesis. EURO had zeroed in on Arthur in long range runs going out 10 days if my memory serves me right.

[abajan]

Small update on this disturbance at the end of my new blog post:

http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/07/27/ab ... -moistens/

Thanks Jonathan. Btw, there's a typo in one of the sub-headlines of that post:

How far south with the front go?

should be

How far south will the front go?

[blp]

Just what I expected from the Euro. We now have a concensus. Let the ping pong of the models begin. Plenty of model runs to sort this out.

The Euro barely shows anything and is the farthest west compared to the GFS. How is this a concensus?

Concensus on something possibly developing from this area. You will never get concensus by the models on eventual intensity and track this early on.