Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[northjaxpro]

It is consensus, not concensus. I am not trying to be curt about this, but the incorrect spelling was hurting my eyes.

[TheStormExpert]

yes... in the deep tropics. Havnt we learned enough from it predicting 1 of the last 10 WPAC systems?

Shouldn't they fix this issue it has?

[Sanibel]

Starting to thicken. We'll see what it looks like tomorrow.

[Ptarmigan]

Probably be an invest soon.

[tropicwatch]

Probably be an invest soon.

Was wandering the same thing?

[cycloneye]

Agree about Invest fairly soon.

[TheStormExpert]

Probably be an invest soon.

Was wandering the same thing?

Was assuming earlier today that we could see it's 2-Day chances raised to 10% by the end of today. But if trends continue we could see 20% and an Invest by the 8pm or 2am TWO.

[TheStormExpert]

Agree about Invest fairly soon.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/i514ef.jpg

Probably the most moisture and convection I've seen in the Tropical Atlantic so far this year (or even longer!).

[northjaxpro]

Probably be an invest soon.

Was wandering the same thing?

Was assuming earlier today that we could see it's 2-Day chances raised to 10% by the end of today. But if trends continue we could see 20% and an Invest by the 8pm or 2am TWO.

You may see this reflected by at the least the 2 a.m. TWO. Convection definitely has increased throughout the day with the wave. NHC will likely tag the system an invest very soon.

[abajan]

Starting to thicken. We'll see what it looks like tomorrow.

Should be interesting to see how the convection looks around DMAX tonight.

[USTropics]

GFS starting to show some spin with this area:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=328.56,8.87,1552

[tropicwatch]

GFS starting to show some spin with this area:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=328.56,8.87,1552

That is a cool graphic! I haven't seen that one before.

[cycloneye]

Umm,Blake from NHC.

@EricBlake12 12Z EC ensembles are now more aggressive- twice as many members bring it to a TD now when compared to 0Z

[cycloneye]

I and many of you want this to be a invest to see the HWRF perform.

[USTropics]

I and many of you want this to be a invest to see the HWRF perform.

Approximately how many times have you refreshed the NRL site today?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized shower activity several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development, especially by the middle of the week, while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[TheAustinMan]

Experimental HWRF at 120 hours (initiated 0600 UTC) earlier today (July 27) showing the system in the central Atlantic.

[Evil Jeremy]

Im out of the loop, did the HWRF get an upgrade? Why the renewed interest?

[Siker]

Im out of the loop, did the HWRF get an upgrade? Why the renewed interest?

It did get upgraded preseason, it's done very well with the EPAC storms so far and did pretty well with Arthur as well.

[floridasun78]

Experimental HWRF at 120 hours (initiated 0600 UTC) earlier today (July 27) showing the system in the central Atlantic.

how did you get HWRF run even when not invest? i was thinking only run when we have invest what site that from ?ty