Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[ConvergenceZone]

I think this has a good chance to make it to the depression stage a few days down the road, beyond that, it's anyone guess....

[TheStormExpert]

I've always wondered why systems do not not get the Invest tag until they reach at least 20% chance of development within the next 48hrs?

[blp]

12z Ukmet from earlier.

36hrs.

[blp]

It is really disappointing that the Euro has so much trouble resolving systems in the deep tropics. You have to almost just use it to see what steering pattern evolves. Once a system forms it does better on intensity but right now forget about it.

[TheAustinMan]

Experimental HWRF at 120 hours (initiated 0600 UTC) earlier today (July 27) showing the system in the central Atlantic.

how did you get HWRF run even when not invest? i was thinking only run when we have invest what site that from ?ty

Aye, HWRF does run only on invests/storms, but since storms are active in the eastern Pacific the HWRF also utilizes its basin-scale 27 km resolution images which happen to include the Atlantic. The image I linked, as well as other HWRF basin-resolution products were found at http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfxprojects/?projectName=BASIN. Cheers.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS still bullish and somehow has the system missing the Leewards all together, despite the low latitude of formation.

168 hour 18Z GFS position:


12Z FIM 168 hours threatening the Puerto Rico / Leewards area:

[Blown Away]

WPC has our Low just north of PR in 7 days...


Low still hugging 10N in 72 hours... Steep climb from the 72 hour point to miss the NE Caribbean...

[jlauderdal]

WPC has our Low just north of PR in 7 days...

the Bermuda high hasnt been very impressive this summer; lets hope it doesnt decide to flex its muscle next weekend and beyond..we dont like systems north of PR on a wnw heading with a strong high in place

what has been impressive are these troughs with another one digging this week

[TheStormExpert]

That trough must be really strong for this time of year in this case. Seems very similar to the steering pattern present during August 2004.

[TheStormExpert]

WPC has our Low just north of PR in 7 days...

the Bermuda high hasnt been very impressive this summer; lets hope it doesnt decide to flex its muscle next weekend and beyond..we dont like systems north of PR on a wnw heading with a strong high in place

what has been impressive are these troughs with another one digging this week

Just a couple weeks before Frances hit we had a HUGE trough in the east which drove Charley out of the Western Caribbean and across SW FL on a track usually common for late season storms hitting the Florida peninsula. Just goes to show thinks can change fast! But something about this season has me feeling relieved that we may be ok.

[Blown Away]

WPC has our Low just north of PR in 7 days...

the Bermuda high hasnt been very impressive this summer; lets hope it doesnt decide to flex its muscle next weekend and beyond..we dont like systems north of PR on a wnw heading with a strong high in place

what has been impressive are these troughs with another one digging this week

Agree, this crazy rain pattern which has been in place for us in Florida has to stop at some point?? As I recall in the past when SFL has been in a persistent rain, rain, rain summer pattern like this the BH makes a big appearance at some point... It's always about the timing!!

Can somebody call the NRL and tell them Storm2k is ready for an Invest please!!

[djones65]

An invest is ONLY declared when there is sufficient evidence of a "closed low," or low pressure are. Not necessarily a well defined closed circulation, but does require a low pressure area with surface rotation. There is not a low pressure area at this time and not forecast to develop for another day or so. I suspect if models are close to accurate that more robust turning or closing off from wave to a low will occur in about 30-36 hours. So invest designation will probably occur early Tuesday in my humble opinion.

[SFLcane]

Still ways to go here but nothing ive seen thus far shows this wave being a threat to the US. pretty substantial weakness near Bermuda should allow system to gain latitude fairly quickly.

edit..In PR and islands you should watch this.

[TheStormExpert]

WPC has our Low just north of PR in 7 days...

the Bermuda high hasnt been very impressive this summer; lets hope it doesnt decide to flex its muscle next weekend and beyond..we dont like systems north of PR on a wnw heading with a strong high in place

what has been impressive are these troughs with another one digging this week

Agree, this crazy rain pattern which has been in place for us in Florida has to stop at some point?? As I recall in the past when SFL has been in a persistent rain, rain, rain summer pattern like this the BH makes a big appearance at some point... It's always about the timing!!

Can somebody call the NRL and tell them Storm2k is ready for an Invest please!!

The difference this year here in WPB, FL is that May and June were relatively drier than normal compared to the past few years. July though is a different story with copious rainfall occurring in my local, we also saw a strong thunderstorm producing VERY gusty winds knocking downs a few tree branches here the day before Hurricane Arthur hit NC's Outer Banks.

[TheStormExpert]

Still ways to go here but nothing ive seen thus far shows this wave being a threat to the US. pretty substantial weakness near Bermuda should allow system to gain latitude fairly quickly.

edit..In PR and islands you should watch this.

I have to agree with you. The "Saved by the Trough!" saying seems to be continuing for the fifth season in a row. Man the U.S. and Florida have been real lucky!

[Blown Away]

An invest is ONLY declared when there is sufficient evidence of a "closed low," or low pressure are. Not necessarily a well defined closed circulation, but does require a low pressure area with surface rotation. There is not a low pressure area at this time and not forecast to develop for another day or so. I suspect if models are close to accurate that more robust turning or closing off from wave to a low will occur in about 30-36 hours. So invest designation will probably occur early Tuesday in my humble opinion.

Predicting a Low within next 24 hours...

[TheStormExpert]

An invest is ONLY declared when there is sufficient evidence of a "closed low," or low pressure are. Not necessarily a well defined closed circulation, but does require a low pressure area with surface rotation. There is not a low pressure area at this time and not forecast to develop for another day or so. I suspect if models are close to accurate that more robust turning or closing off from wave to a low will occur in about 30-36 hours. So invest designation will probably occur early Tuesday in my humble opinion.

I've noticed Invest are declared when the NHC's 48hr. formation percentage is at least 20%.

[cycloneye]

Still ways to go here but nothing ive seen thus far shows this wave being a threat to the US. pretty substantial weakness near Bermuda should allow system to gain latitude fairly quickly.

edit..In PR and islands you should watch this.

Well,PR needs plenty of this to aliviate the drought we are going thru. I hope GFS scenario doesn't pan out but of course if it comes is nothing strong in terms of winds.

[TheStormExpert]

An invest is ONLY declared when there is sufficient evidence of a "closed low," or low pressure are. Not necessarily a well defined closed circulation, but does require a low pressure area with surface rotation. There is not a low pressure area at this time and not forecast to develop for another day or so. I suspect if models are close to accurate that more robust turning or closing off from wave to a low will occur in about 30-36 hours. So invest designation will probably occur early Tuesday in my humble opinion.

http://i61.tinypic.com/htspxh.jpg
Predicting a Low within next 24 hours...

Would be suprised if the 48hr. formation chances aren't upped to 20% by 2pm tomorrow at the latest.

[Steve H.]

Come on folks. This potential system is still 1000+ miles away if it develops. Please don't think you know where it's going yet, if it even develops.