CPAC: INVEST 92C

[Yellow Evan]

Baring a miracle, should be a bust.

[hurricanes1234]

Baring a miracle, should be a bust.

Agreed. I don't think Iselle would come from this, nor a depression, if trends continue.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with a well-defined low pressure area
located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula remains poorly organized. Upper-level
winds are currently unfavorable for development, but they could
become a little more conducive in a few days while the low moves
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a well-defined low pressure area
located about 1475 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula remains poorly organized. Upper-level
winds are currently unfavorable for development, but they could
become a little more conducive in a few days while the low moves
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area
located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has increased somewhat but remains poorly
organized. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for
significant development while the low moves westward at 5 to 10 mph
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS brings this near the Aloha state. Not sure if it will verify. GFS showed the same thing last year around this time, and nothing happened. It's been in the runs for a whole though.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii has become less organized during the past few hours.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development
during the next couple of days while the low moves westward at
around 10 mph. By midweek the system is expected to move westward
into an area of cooler waters in the central Pacific basin that will
be unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Shows a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing minimal shower activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
significant development of this system during the next several days
while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
significant development of this system during the next several days
as it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.