ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

I echo the wisdom of 57.....develop = recurve, don't develop stays on a more westerly course. It has a lot of moisture to work with. Currently I think it will spin up. Down the road, that cut-off ULL north or PR looks to be causing a good bit of shear and disrupt 93L.....MGC

[TheStormExpert]

Tropical Atlantic is still relatively stable for this time of year. Instability is way down, due primarily to sinking (dry) air in the mid levels. Shear isn't too high in the Tropical Atlantic, however.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif[/img]

You got to think that graphic is going to spike up soon. With TD#2 last week and this thing I expect a change once that graphic updates.

I believe that graphic is updated daily and has been spiking downward over the past week even with TD #2 and 93L.

[TheAustinMan]

A tiny bit off topic..., but is this the wave that was over Mali last Wed night and may have contributed to the crash of the Air Algeria flight? I haven't had a chance to go back and track this and compare with the time of the crash...

Assuming that 93L is associated with the tropical wave that departed from the African coast at around 0600 UTC on July 25, yes, the storm that contributed to the crash of the Air Algerie flight and Invest 93L appear to be associated with the same wave, based on this product.

[Kohlecane]

anyone got a GOES visible on this

[TheAustinMan]

Plot of atmospheric Kelvin waves showing a wave (contoured in blue) approaching Invest 93L, indicating low-level convergence maxima. Per Michael Ventrice, "Area of maximum low-lvl convergence from strong CCKW is currently superimposed w/ invest. Watch for burst in convcton"

[tolakram]

anyone got a GOES visible on this

It's still too far east for a decent loop.

Not in range of the extended hurricane sector yet: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-50&info=vis&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&map=none&numframes=5

It can be seen on the global view but this only updates every 3 hours and I get seasick looking at it.

VIS: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20FULL&info=vis&zoom=1&lat=10&lon=-10&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&map=none&numframes=2

IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20FULL&info=ir&zoom=1&lat=10&lon=-10&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&map=none&numframes=5

[Kohlecane]

anyone got a GOES visible on this

It's still too far east for a decent loop.

Not in range of the extended hurricane sector yet: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-50&info=vis&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&map=none&numframes=5

It can be seen on the global view but this only updates every 3 hours and I get seasick looking at it.

VIS: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20FULL&info=vis&zoom=1&lat=10&lon=-10&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&map=none&numframes=2

IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20FULL&info=ir&zoom=1&lat=10&lon=-10&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&map=none&numframes=5

Thanks, i actually enjoy that last IR

[wxman57]

The ASCAT satellite "hit" 93W around 1130Z. Shows a weak LLC in the vicinity of 9.8N just west of 33W.

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBds113.png

[galaxy401]

The best chance for this storm is it will have to develop quick and curve north of the islands. The Eastern Caribbean seems to be a death zone the last few years.

[TheAustinMan]

Experimental NHC/TAFB 10 km resolution gridded marine forecast from 1200 UTC today showing Invest 93L becoming a marginal system (perhaps a tropical depression) upon nearing the Virgin Islands on August 2.

[TheAustinMan]

The ASCAT satellite "hit" 93W around 1130Z. Shows a weak LLC in the vicinity of 9.8N just west of 33W.

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBds113.png

Superimposed the ASCAT data on 1145 UTC non-enhanced infrared image -

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
has increased this afternoon, but remains disorganized.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days while it
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[floridasun78]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 281345
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 28 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 13N 52W AT 31/1730Z.
plane may fly thur to 93L

[Alyono]

I think NHCs chances are quite low. Development chances may be closer to 60/90 at this point.

I wonder if they are giving weight to the EC solution, which would be a mistake

[gatorcane]

Saved image, maybe some easterly shear?

[NDG]

I think NHCs chances are quite low. Development chances may be closer to 60/90 at this point.

I wonder if they are giving weight to the EC solution, which would be a mistake

That is what is probably going on. They are probably waiting for the Euro to jump in. You would think that they would have given higher chances just with the HWRF forecast which did very well with Arthur and TD 2.

[cycloneye]

The SSD floater has not updated since 14:45 UTC.

[floridasun78]

The SSD floater has not updated since 14:45 UTC.

i using this for now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir4.html

[ronyan]

I would have given higher development chances, all the intensity guidance is on board for a TS on Thursday. If the EC comes around we may see a sudden jump in those chances.

[Nimbus]

This one has a better moisture envelope. There is already a large outflow pattern in the upper atmosphere indicating it is developing under a high so I'm a little more concerned about this one.

Usual pattern is that the storm develops and moves west until it gets to the western periphery of the high pressure ridge. Weak storms usually find a coastal trough or at least an ULL to shear them apart there. a stronger storm developing into a hurricane, can pump up the ridge that it is traveling in.

The ULL in the Caribbean area is dropping south which could make room for the subtropical ridge to build further west. Don't know which model to bet on at this point, but it looks like we are off to the races.