ATL: BERTHA - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Still a long ways to go, can't trust any model past 7 days!!! It has to develop first!!
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Something that I have noticed during the past 4-5 years when Bermuda has been threaten a lot by tropical systems, especially during 2010 is that the MS river valley and SE US has been dominated by ridging while the troughiness pattern has been more in the western Atlantic into New England in the 2010 season, the Bermuda ridge was for the most part absent. If you noticed this coming trough is not forecasted to sweep on through the western Atlantic which definitely would had convinced me that a recurve out to sea would be the outcome of 93L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:Still a long ways to go, can't trust any model past 7 days!!! It has to develop first!!
Thank you. Can we at least have an actual system before saying "oh yea this will definitely recurve at so and so". Who knows how things will be a week from now and we've seen plenty of systems forecast to recurve very early only to make it much further west and even Arthur ended of being further west than models said it would initially be.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
U got that right, I mean people jump the gun way to much on these model runs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
KWT wrote:CMC comes close to the LA but probably just misses them.
It also blows up a low in the middle of the north Atlantic for no apparent reason.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re:
NDG wrote:Something that I have noticed during the past 4-5 years when Bermuda has been threaten a lot by tropical systems, especially during 2010 is that the MS river valley and SE US has been dominated by ridging while the troughiness pattern has been more in the western Atlantic into New England in the 2010 season, the Bermuda ridge was for the most part absent. If you noticed this coming trough is not forecasted to sweep on through the western Atlantic which definitely would had convinced me that a recurve out to sea would be the outcome of 93L.
Last year's pattern was very similar to this years, only none of the systems that developed held together long enough or managed to get their act together as they got into the west Atlantic.
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Re:
NDG wrote:12z GFDL and HWRF runs.
GFDL is crazy, lol.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 5c0967.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... f0e8ad.png
How did the GFDL perform with Hurricane Arthur compared to the HWRF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
hurricaneCW wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:Still a long ways to go, can't trust any model past 7 days!!! It has to develop first!!
Thank you. Can we at least have an actual system before saying "oh yea this will definitely recurve at so and so". Who knows how things will be a week from now and we've seen plenty of systems forecast to recurve very early only to make it much further west and even Arthur ended of being further west than models said it would initially be.
Odds favor a recurve anyday over a East Coast hit hence why at least 75% of Cape Verde type systems are Fish!
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Re: Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:NDG wrote:12z GFDL and HWRF runs.
GFDL is crazy, lol.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 5c0967.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... f0e8ad.png
How did the GFDL perform with Hurricane Arthur compared to the HWRF.
It was very inconsistent with intensity and track was way off most times, what I remember.
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Re:
NDG wrote:12z Euro is on board with developing 93L, the resolution that I am looking at is weaker than the GFS so further south and west than the GFS track.
Actually makes it into the Caribbean, but super weak.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC MON JUL 28 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140728 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140728 1800 140729 0600 140729 1800 140730 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 33.8W 10.1N 37.0W 10.5N 40.4W 10.7N 44.0W
BAMD 9.8N 33.8W 10.0N 36.4W 10.1N 39.0W 10.3N 41.5W
BAMM 9.8N 33.8W 10.0N 36.5W 10.4N 39.2W 10.6N 42.1W
LBAR 9.8N 33.8W 9.5N 36.7W 9.4N 40.0W 9.3N 43.3W
SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 40KTS 51KTS
DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 40KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140730 1800 140731 1800 140801 1800 140802 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 47.5W 10.9N 53.2W 11.0N 57.3W 13.1N 60.6W
BAMD 10.7N 44.0W 12.2N 48.7W 14.5N 52.9W 17.7N 57.1W
BAMM 11.2N 44.8W 12.5N 50.2W 14.2N 55.2W 16.7N 59.8W
LBAR 9.3N 46.4W 9.6N 51.6W 10.6N 55.0W 17.2N 59.4W
SHIP 61KTS 81KTS 90KTS 94KTS
DSHP 61KTS 81KTS 90KTS 94KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 33.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 31.3W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 28.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC MON JUL 28 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140728 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140728 1800 140729 0600 140729 1800 140730 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 33.8W 10.1N 37.0W 10.5N 40.4W 10.7N 44.0W
BAMD 9.8N 33.8W 10.0N 36.4W 10.1N 39.0W 10.3N 41.5W
BAMM 9.8N 33.8W 10.0N 36.5W 10.4N 39.2W 10.6N 42.1W
LBAR 9.8N 33.8W 9.5N 36.7W 9.4N 40.0W 9.3N 43.3W
SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 40KTS 51KTS
DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 40KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140730 1800 140731 1800 140801 1800 140802 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 47.5W 10.9N 53.2W 11.0N 57.3W 13.1N 60.6W
BAMD 10.7N 44.0W 12.2N 48.7W 14.5N 52.9W 17.7N 57.1W
BAMM 11.2N 44.8W 12.5N 50.2W 14.2N 55.2W 16.7N 59.8W
LBAR 9.3N 46.4W 9.6N 51.6W 10.6N 55.0W 17.2N 59.4W
SHIP 61KTS 81KTS 90KTS 94KTS
DSHP 61KTS 81KTS 90KTS 94KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 33.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 31.3W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 28.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: Re:
xironman wrote:NDG wrote:12z Euro is on board with developing 93L, the resolution that I am looking at is weaker than the GFS so further south and west than the GFS track.
Actually makes it into the Caribbean, but super weak.
Yes, that is a big step from the Euro which on yesterday's 12z run only kept it alive for 72 hrs and much weaker than today's 12z run, last night's run it did not even developed it.
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- gatorcane
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Did anybody notice that several of the GFS ensembles I posted above are quite a bit more west of the operational? Here is another graphic below with some of the ensembles member runs from RAL's site, just in, pink line is operational:
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
DAY 7
DAY 6
WPC advertising a sharp NW turn after skirting PR...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
SHIPS is going crazy with intensity again I'm assuming.
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