ATL: BERTHA - Models

[cycloneye]

It looks like EC is having issues everywhere.


Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 8m
72-hr West Pac forecast from 12z ECMWF also fails to develop newly numbered TD 11W WMO 850UV+MSLP:

[Riptide]

The more time goes on, it would seem that ECM is a mid-latitude/polar model. Not surprising considering its origin.

[PTrackerLA]

Those 12z GFS ensembles are quite interesting. Would seem to indicate a further shift west in the next operational could be coming.

[wxman57]

SHIPS is going crazy with intensity again I'm assuming.

Remember it's a "Statistical Hurricane Intensity Program" - the key word "statistical". While it does take into consideration wind shear (in a broad sense), it isn't a full dynamic intensity model.

[TheStormExpert]

SHIPS is going crazy with intensity again I'm assuming.

Remember it's a "Statistical Hurricane Intensity Program" - the key word "statistical". While it does take into consideration wind shear (in a broad sense), it isn't a full dynamic intensity model.

Yeah every system last season that developed out of the MDR it went crazy with the intensity, did the same with TD #2 too.

[gatorcane]

[floridasun78]

i have question for mets in here why do ships alway make system stong ? we saw with td2 that wanted make td2 into hurr never was

[ronjon]

Interesting that the GFS ensembles almost evenly split between a westerm atlantic recurve and cuba/FL straits solution.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Ensemble tracks.

[hurricanekid416]

Some gfs ensembles have a track that resembles Ike from 2008

[wxman57]

Interesting that the GFS ensembles almost evenly split between a westerm atlantic recurve and cuba/FL straits solution.

The members that don't develop it into a closed low don't recurve it.

[torrea40]

Well......Out of 20 ensembles of 12z Canadian global ensemble, only a few manage under 1010 hPa for 5-days w/93L

[ronjon]

Looks like 12z Euro keeps it pretty far south and rams the vorticity into Hispanola in 6 days.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[JonathanBelles]

Well......Out of 20 ensembles of 12z Canadian global ensemble, only a few manage under 1010 hPa for 5-days w/93L

Please give credit where credit is due. This was a direct quote from a tweet from Ryan Maue.

[torrea40]

By: @RyanMaue
Atlantic easterly wave taken by GFS model NE of Antilles / Puerto Rico by weekend, favorable enviro for intens. pic.twitter.com/clXEcCJVR6

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 180 hour shear chart. We can see 93L moving NW east of the Bahamas but it seems the GFS is really bring down the shear in the Caribbean (and all of the tropical Atlantic for that matter) starting around 1 week from now and by 240 hours conditions look favorable across the Caribbean.

Note: models do have a tough time predicting shear that far in advance:

[Frank2]

FYI - It's very possible that based on the current location and timing when it moved off Africa, the second disturbance possibly contributed to the Air Algerie accident...

[RL3AO]

12Z GFS 180 hour shear chart. We can see 93L moving NW east of the Bahamas but it seems the GFS is really bring down the shear in the Caribbean starting around 1 week from now and by 240 hours conditions look favorable across the Caribbean.

Noticed that yesterday. Something worth watching as we enter August.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... Develops 93L east of the Leewards then hits Hispaniola head on and remnants come out on the other side in the Bahamas...

[Blown Away]

18z... Missing The Islands...


18z... Intensity Going Crazy...