ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[djones65]

Bullet point #4 in Hurricane Allen's preliminary report validated tropicalwxanalyst13's statement that th upper low imparting the westerly shear retrograded north of the Caribbean and "enhanced" the upper level outflow. Allen's upper ll anticyclone moved in tandem with the storm. In my humble opinion, the upper level Caribbean westerlies are well entrenched and therefore much less likely to be weakened by an upper anticyclone accompanying future Bertha. Just my personal opinion.

Do not trust my rambling thoughts. Always refer to official advices from local NWS offices and/or the NHC

[djones65]

So Morales is an "on-air" meteorologist or personality?
No disrespect intended, but on air personalities oftentimes tweet for ratings and I do not always trust.

Please never trust or use my rambling thoughts in decision making situations. ALWAYS use the local NWS offices advice and/or the NHC

[Frank2]

He's the local OCM for NBC6 in Miami and an experienced pilot, though I'm sure Max Mayfield who does the color commentary on ABC Local 10 would not make a statement like that this far out in time and distance...

[RL3AO]

So Morales is an "on-air" meteorologist or personality?

John Morales is a fantastic meteorologist in South Florida.

[hurrtracker79]

Saying that "Bertha" is not a threat to FL is just not a smart thing to say this far in advance. Any good met knows how much things can change with the storm/steering patterns beyond 3-5 days. It is just too early to say FL will NOT be threatened.

[TheStormExpert]

lets not forget Dean 7 years ago. The models had it passing well north of the islands.

It ended up striking Martinique as a cat 2 and quickly became a cat 5 in the Caribbean.

Allen, which occurred at a very similar time of year in 1980, went through the Windwards as a strong 3 and also became a 5 in the east Caribbean

Going west does not guarantee a weak system

The difference now is computer models have kind of improved a good deal IMO.

[gatorcane]

Saved IR image loop - well on it's way....

[TheStormExpert]

So Morales is an "on-air" meteorologist or personality?

John Morales is a fantastic meteorologist in South Florida.

But making such statements this far out is kind of unprofessional IMO. A local met here in WPB also made a very similar statement a day or two ago about no need for concern over this system. I was like why!?

[RL3AO]

Of course. I disagree with the statement. Its very very likely to be correct but I wouldn't have made it.

I was just answering the question that Morales is a very good met especially when it comes to TCs.

[TheStormExpert]

Saying that "Bertha" is not a threat to FL is just not a smart thing to say this far in advance. Any good met knows how much things can change with the storm/steering patterns beyond 3-5 days. It is just too early to say FL will NOT be threatened.

Totally agree! Even though the odds of Florida being hit are probably less than 25%.

[RL3AO]

Even though the odds of Florida being hit are probably less than 25%.

Probably below 5% but agree it was a statement that shouldn't have been made.

[SouthDadeFish]

Pretty silly in my opinion for John to call this a non-threat to FL... it is not even a classified system yet. While it is true a FL landfall looks unlikely at this time, totally dismissing it as a threat doesn't seem wise with a system so far out... Anyway, I am quite surprised NHC only went with 50% at the 8 pm update. I think chances are likely this will be a classified system tomorrow after seeing recent trends.

[cycloneye]

Vorticity getting stronger.

[ozonepete]

This year, the Caribbean is dominated by surface trade winds on the order of 20-25kts, and upper-level winds on the order of 25-35 knots. If 93L enters the central Caribbean, it will die.

Hi trop13, I like your posts in general so I was surprised at this. C'mon, guy. You are setting yourself up to eat crow. That's way too far out and none of us, including the models, could say what you said with any real certainty, right? Way too far out in time.

[Gustywind]

Saved IR image loop - well on it's way....

Good looking system Gatorcane! Look at that convection expanding everywhere... By the way, do you think that the Leewards could be concerned by this little thing? I ask you that because of we appreciate your great analysis and thus in our island of Guadeloupe the famous event of cycling called le Tour de la Guadeloupe should begin this Friday...

Thanks my friend

[TheStormExpert]

Pretty silly in my opinion for John to call this a non-threat to FL... it is not even a classified system yet. While it is true a FL landfall looks unlikely at this time, totally dismissing it as a threat doesn't seem wise with a system so far out... Anyway, I am quite surprised NHC only went with 50% at the 8 pm update. I think chances are likely this will be a classified system tomorrow after seeing recent trends.

What's more surprising to me is they kept the 5-day percentage at 70% when IMO it's more worthy of around 80-90%. I think they are including the Euro into their reasons and since it has this remaining weak and not amounting to much they stayed the same in the 5-day TWO range.

[ozonepete]

Pretty silly in my opinion for John to call this a non-threat to FL... it is not even a classified system yet. While it is true a FL landfall looks unlikely at this time, totally dismissing it as a threat doesn't seem wise with a system so far out... Anyway, I am quite surprised NHC only went with 50% at the 8 pm update. I think chances are likely this will be a classified system tomorrow after seeing recent trends.

Yeah. The NHC being conservative doesn't surprise me anymore when the system is far from land. I can see that. But all of these meteorologists saying things like a storm that's not even developed yet will not be a threat to Florida? The hurricane forecasting road is littered with the debris of bad forecasts like that, lol.

[Gustywind]

First SSD appearence...

28/2345 UTC 9.7N 35.8W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic

[ConvergenceZone]

I was predicting the first week of August that we would hit our "B" storm, but now I think it might be the last week in July..... This wave is looking really good!!!

[gatorcane]

Saved IR image loop - well on it's way....

Good looking system Gatorcane! Look at that convection expanding everywhere... By the way, do you think that the Leewards could be concerned by this little thing? I ask you that because of we appreciate your great analysis and thus in our island of Guadeloupe the famous event of cycling called le Tour de la Guadeloupe should begin this Friday...

Thanks my friend

Hi Gusty - wouldn't think it would be more than a strong T.S. for the Leewards but leaning towards it passing Guadeloupe to the north in about 5-6 days from now but it's going to be a close call. Keep an eye on it though, models are not great with intensity forecasts.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.