WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

According to the latest radar, Halong's eye has grown in size and has started to clear out...

[euro6208]

Extremely heavy rains now likely flooding happening in low lying areas. Good thing i don't live near the hills...

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I hopethe folks over the Marianas Islands are safe and sound and will be prepared for this typhoon, especially euro.

[euro6208]

Very heavy rains of 50-60 velocity on radar over the north guam and moving south...Strongest by far...Lightning show

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TS 11W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 291146Z GMI IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY RADAR FIXES. A 291114Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 45 TO 50 KNOT
CORE WINDS WITH EXTENSIVE 30 TO 35-KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE
ASCAT IMAGE, CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
55 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES ENHANCED OUTFLOW
SUPPORTED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK TUTT CELL TO
THE WEST. TS 11W TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FROM 29/06Z TO 29/09Z
THEN TURNED WESTWARD. RECENT RADAR FIXES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WESTWARD TRACK AS OF 1330Z. TS 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. DUE TO THE SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED, THE CPA TO GUAM HAS CHANGED BY 7 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,
PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS.
B. AS THE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 96W) TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM PROVIDING A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING
INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR SHOULD MAINTAIN A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION, WHICH WILL STEER TS 11W
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A 100 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NEAR TAU 72. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE BUT THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS COMPLEX WITH TUTT CELLS ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK INCREASES
SLIGHTLY AS THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES. NAVGEM PRESENTS THE MOST
UNREALISTIC SCENARIO WITH A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO THE STR, THEREFORE,
THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO ECMWF AND
GFS. TS HALONG SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. DUE TO THE
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Big eye near Guam and Rota...

[Equilibrium]

When the eye clears should be upgraded has looked TY for hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

[euro6208]

When the eye clears should be upgraded has looked TY for hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

It's been one for many hours. I suspect the JTWC puts too much stock on dvorak as they are having a hard time with this midget storm. It does look 3.5 on satellite until you see the radar which shows a well defined eye. Good thing we have radar...Basically, they should just upgrade based on an eye...

[Equilibrium]

this looks to me its only moving to the west now on radar.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

[euro6208]

Crowded...



Very hot...



Maximum intensity pressure - 860 mb!



Maximum intensity wind speed - 160 knots!

[euro6208]

Spiral band has finally cleared northern Guam and conditions has calm still sprinkling with heavy winds. Central and Southern Guam still getting the wrath of this band...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291535
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 146.5E

ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 95 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13
MPH. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION
WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

M. AYDLETT

[Equilibrium]

Guam getting smashed by those bands looking at the radar iam jelous wish i was there atm.

[euro6208]

Guam getting smashed by those bands looking at the radar iam jelous wish i was there atm.

A great place for typhoon hunting right smack in the middle of the most active basin. Everything here is made of concrete so wind damage is nothing and our power even stays on during storms...Flooding is more of a concerned especially in low lying areas...We just sit back, relax and enjoy maybe scream a bit

[euro6208]

Another round of showers...

[euro6208]

Well good morning...very strong rains falling...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 76 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291612Z NOAA-19 IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS SUPPORTED BY THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND RADAR FIXES WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES ENHANCED OUTFLOW PROVIDED
BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TS 11W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE STR SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION, WHICH
WILL SHIFT TS HALONG NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. IN ADDITION TO
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TS 11W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND
LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU 72.
C. TS HALONG IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

STORM UPDATE: Tropical Storm Halong continues to intensify and could become a typhoon today.

At 4:30 a.m., the center of the storm was located at 13.7 degrees north and 146.1 degrees east, or 90 miles east of Guam. The storm is moving west-northwest at 9 mph and is expected to continue in this direction with a slight drop in forward speed during the next 24 hours.

The National Weather Service reports it is possible Guam will see near-typhoon strength winds at 65 mph when Halong passes north of us between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. today.

A few hours ago, the storm was on a path to hit Rota directly. The storm now is expected to pass between Guam and Rota through the Rota Channel. Halong now has a distinct eye. Right now, winds around that 14-mile-diameter eye are around 65 mph. By the time the storm passes the Rota Channel, it is expected to be a typhoon.

There are no changes to planning and preparations by the Emergency Operations Center. Shelters will open at 5 a.m. Guam Memorial Hospital will begin accepting pregnant women at 7 a.m. Gov. Eddie Baza Calvo and Rear Admiral Tilghman Payne still are looking at declaring Condition of Readiness 1 at 8 a.m.

Road conditions are wet and the heavy rainfall has caused flash flooding in various areas, including Route 10A, which leads from Route 16 to the airport. Anyone heading to the airport is advised to avoid that section of road.

[euro6208]