ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What ever happened to the MJO, is it forecasted to appear next week still or will it remain nonexistent like it has all season so far?

It's still in the central and eastern Pacific. It should head east, but as an increasingly incoherent feature.

Any new Kelvin Wave coming to help it?

Doesn't look like it.

[StarmanHDB]

just stop! There is NOTHING that has yet to prove a well defined LLC. It's becoming better defined, but now the convection is dropping off. Notice all the mets are saying this has yet to form? That should tell you something

To the Pro Mets in this forum, THANK YOU for trying to provide reason! I know that reading the endless posts of the "Hurricane Wishers and Dreamers" must drive you batty, but please note that I while I regard many posts in these forums as mere fluff, I ALWAYS read all Pro Met posts with keen interest simply because I know that you all know your stuff. Once again, thank you!

As for 93L, I hope that when it does develop it provides much needed rain for the good folks in the Caribbean (without destruction, of course).

Welcome to the Wave Train, 2014 Style!

[TheAustinMan]

My forecast has this becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow night (It should already be designated, but I'll move on...) and a tropical storm on the day Thursday as wind shear lessens significantly. I could see this being a 50-60 mph tropical storm as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. After that time, the trough over the East Coast should be able to turn this more poleward, and I see a recurvature west of Bermuda as an intensifying hurricane.

Any new Kelvin Wave coming to help it?

The one last night is passing by, nothing imminent in terms of Kelvin waves for a bit after that. NOTE: DATED PHOTO

[SouthDadeFish]

Low-level rotation is perhaps stronger than its ever been. All that appears to be lacking is organized and persistent convection. One convective burst could make the difference.

[Frank2]

I agree - having the pro mets here helps keep the discussion on the practical. I was a tech during my weather days (plotting maps, etc.) and will never say that I know what the professionals know (and the meteorologists I know personally will agree with a smile), but it's good to have the support of the professionals here...

P.S. A KW is like a wave at the beach - it comes, it lifts you up as it passes, and then waters become calm once again...

Frank

[NDG]

Low-level rotation is perhaps stronger than its ever been. All that appears to be lacking is organized and persistent convection. One convective burst could make the difference.

I am glad to see a promet see what I see

[gatorcane]

Saved floater vis loop shows dry air and some easterly shear but the overall structure looks good. No sign of it gaining latitude yet:

[KWT]

Nice circulation on the system, I think that on its own will get it over the line at some point in the near future.

With that being said, the convection seems to be suffering a little, and if that is the case when the system is still attached to the ITCZ, no wonder some models make it struggle once it lifts out from those fertile grounds.

Also think its going to get further west than some of the models are expecting as well.

Lots of SAL still evident to the north.

[Alyono]

check ur PMs, KWT... not sure who you were trying to address in your post, but you most certainly dont have my name right

[NDG]

[KWT]

Dry air working well into the circulation, though as long as its near the ITCZ it should have enough moisture to still work with.

[AEWspotter]

As a Pro Met, I'll echo the sentiment of NDG and SouthDadeFish that this thing only lacks some organized & persistent convection. LLC is looking great.

[northjaxpro]

I agree - having the pro mets here helps keep the discussion on the practical. I was a tech during my weather days (plotting maps, etc.) and will never say that I know what the professionals know (and the meteorologists I know personally will agree with a smile), but it's good to have the support of the professionals here...

P.S. A KW is like a wave at the beach - it comes, it lifts you up as it passes, and then waters become calm once again...

Frank

I agree. Having several pro mets on here providing their thoughts and insights to everyone else on here is the best aspect of Storm2K. I appecrite them being on here and just wanted to echo my sentiment as well.

Back on topic with 93L...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

How well 93L performs on its way to the islands will determine its long-term track and intensity. Strong northeasterly shear is plaguing the storm now, allowing for dry air entrainment. However, the SHIPS forecasts this to dramatically lessen over the next day, which should allow for intensification. As long as this is producing active convection as it enters the islands, the resultant outflow should be able to split the upper-level trough north of the islands, creating a very favorable environment for intensification (like yesterday's runs of the GFS showed). Today's 12z solution offers up that this doesn't happen, and instead the storm is sheared to death. I'm not ready to jump on that bandwagon considering that this is already a well-formed disturbance very close to officially becoming a tropical depression.

[Rail Dawg]

Saved floater vis loop shows dry air and some easterly shear but the overall structure looks good. No sign of it gaining latitude yet:

That vis loop is showing a lot. My guess is a depression here shortly as this system is in very fertile grounds.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1450 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited. This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like an LLC is there and if the convection fires there is no way NHC won't hold back on pulling the trigger.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N39W AND IS MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
BANDING FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE NE
QUADRANT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Blown Away]

NWS has this low still at low latitude in 72 hours... Serious NW movement needed to avoid islands from that point... IDK??

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Weaker per SSD

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/1745 UTC 9.5N 40.1W T1.0/1.5 93L
29/1145 UTC 9.9N 38.7W T1.5/1.5 93L
29/0545 UTC 9.9N 37.3W T1.0/1.0 93L
28/2345 UTC 9.7N 35.8W T1.0/1.0 93L